Earlier quoted context omitted.
Pretty sure the proposed solution is to buy stocks of the U.S. technology giants: Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, and Alphabet, the parent company of Google.
The largest market cap companies in a given decade, overwhelmingly tend to be under-performers in the following decade. It's a trend that has repeated decade after decade. Many of these types of companies - AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, FB - have pulled a massive share of their future returns forward (which is what happened to Microsoft, stagnating its stock for ~15 years). In 2007 the largest companies were: Exxon, GE, Microso…
Just own the damn robots
121–130 of 356 posts
Re: Just own the damn robots
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
Reducing employment by 10% would be catastrophic for the US economy and will cause massive social unrest, not to mention the effects in developing countries where people who have just been pulled out of abject poverty in the last generation will suddenly see those opportunities disappear again. Now remember truck drivers are the most populous single occupation in the US, and commercial trucking is expected to be larg…
> Now remember truck drivers are the most populous single occupation in the US Based on non-uniform binning criteria. Bin differently and other jobs might be on the top. Although they might be just as susceptible to automation. It's a nice example, but it is about as solid as pluto's planetary status.
Note that truck drivers are not in the top 10 chart even though the American Trucking Association estimates 3.5 million truck drivers in the US since BLS puts the number at about 1.7 million. I don't know where the discrepancy comes from.
[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/most-popular-jobs-in-america-...
Re: Just own the damn robots
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
The best outcome is the "Culture" endpoint: a post-need society. 10% of people are called upon to work, and the rest thrive on basic income and become artists and inventors, philosophers and musicians and actors. The worst outcome, on the other hand, is rather more dystopian. A society with a very large percentage of young, unemployed people with no particular path to success is not a stable society. I suppose it mat…
Very few people would "thrive" on a basic income. Look at communities today where a large percentage of people live on government aid. People need a reason to exist and meaningful work to do. Very few have the drive and discipline to become artists/inventors/philosophers/musicians/actors. Plus the majority of those who do become artists are unlikely to create anything that the rest of society would value. Have you be…
No, if you want to look at basic income, look at the children of the wealthy, who never have to work. Most still pursue education, get degrees, and work in a variety of fields including art.
Also it's important not to conflate your interests in art with the universe of art appreciators. Because there is plenty of artistic work that I don't personally enjoy, but which there is a demand for. Jewelry comes to mind... I've bought cuff links but that's about it for the past year, but necklaces, earrings, bracelets and rings still get sold despite my lack of interest.
Re: Just own the damn robots
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
Pretty sure the proposed solution is to buy stocks of the U.S. technology giants: Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, and Alphabet, the parent company of Google.
The largest market cap companies in a given decade, overwhelmingly tend to be under-performers in the following decade. It's a trend that has repeated decade after decade. Many of these types of companies - AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, FB - have pulled a massive share of their future returns forward (which is what happened to Microsoft, stagnating its stock for ~15 years). In 2007 the largest companies were: Exxon, GE, Microso…
Yes, sometimes it's important to remind people of the efficient-market hypothesis:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
You can't beat the market buying stocks using publicly available information, because everybody else knows everything you do. The average seller has no reason to sell you the stock for less than it's worth.
The only way to beat the market without random chance is to know something everyone else doesn't.
Re: Just own the damn robots
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
The best outcome is the "Culture" endpoint: a post-need society. 10% of people are called upon to work, and the rest thrive on basic income and become artists and inventors, philosophers and musicians and actors. The worst outcome, on the other hand, is rather more dystopian. A society with a very large percentage of young, unemployed people with no particular path to success is not a stable society. I suppose it mat…
Also, do the 10% believe that they are a static group deserving of persistent participation in the "working class" - or is this a competitive and fluid group in which the children of the 90% may move into/out of as their skills/ability apply? Which is to ask - is it worth maintaining a 90% at all or should we 'solve that problem'?
Study after study indicates that wealth provides opportunities, and that most people don't move up to become wealthy but are born that way. So basically society systematically advantages people who have wealthy parents, over people who work hard.
Bill Gates father was relatively wealthy. Imagine how many bill gates there are who are poor.
If Elon Musk hadn't had his father's money for his first company, there might not be a paypal or tesla.
So the question is how many potential bill gates and elon musks are there who's parents couldn't risk supporting them, who settle for doing something less innovative and interesting because they need to pay the bills or support family members?
Re: Just own the damn robots
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
What will that tech need to survive? Lithium, for batteries. Heavy metals, for processing. Energy, most of all. I wonder how long it'll be until we replace fiat currencies with a balance of kilowatt-hours.
Energy is the currency of the future. - CEO Nwabudike Morgan, "The Centauri Monopoly"
I was going to link to its page on Paean to SMAC but it turns out that quote is from "Global Energy Theory", a tech that didn't make it into the final game (but had data set up for it). So there's no write-up about it.
Instead, I'll link to the Paean's "First Time Here?" page: https://paeantosmac.wordpress.com/first-time-here/
Re: Just own the damn robots
#127"Player Piano" should be required reading for all. It doesn't have to be the future, but it's a future worth examining.
"Manna"[1] as well. While I don't like the writing style, I love the story. Especially since it shows AI gutting middle management in an interesting way before robotics is mature enough to do all the dextrous tasks. 1 http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm
> Terrafoam is, by contrast, 'Worse and worse.'
No, it's not. Manna is better and better: it yields continually better results.
> With all that happening, it is very hard to get people together to work on big projects.
Wouldn't it be cool if there were something to get people to work together on big projects? Something like an economic force causing them to give a little to get a little?
Frankly, I think the Australia Project would stagnate after a generation or two, while Manna would continually improve. After a few generations, it'd be much like to Communist states vs. the West: yes, the Communists did often improve on their initial conditions by quite a bit — but the free economies improved even more. I recall a story about someone (in China, perhaps?) bragging about how the government dumped a pallet of free cabbage on each city block every time period. Free cabbage sounds wonderful to someone who was a subsistence farmer — but Asian-American fusion cuisine on every city block sounds even better.
And that's just within the construct of the story. A real-world example would have competing Manna-like systems.
Also, in the Manna world the problem is that in the U.S. most people don't have the ability to contribute, and so they languish in Terrafoam. It provides no reason for why they are suddenly more talented in the Australia Project. That just doesn't make sense.
Anyway, I hope that mankind's actual future is not to choose between two different totalitarian systems.
Re: Just own the damn robots
#128Reads like this are slowly convincing me not to buy into the world of mortgages and debt and to just live the rest of my life paying for everything in cash. I tried to buy a house last year with my wife but the market exploded where I live and suddenly houses were 40% more expensive from last year. So we still rent, which makes me feel incomplete. Like I'm kind of failing my duty of bringing the Canadian Dream to my…
Re: Just own the damn robots
#129I just don't buy it. I understand I'm in a minority, so let me indulge myself and explain, for a moment, why I think AI / Robots are nothing to worry about. My claim is: Robots will not replace humans in all jobs. Further, it's more than because of Human preference, I think that Robots will lack cognitive abilities that we have. My expectation is that in each area where they are deficient then they may well become a…
You're trolling, right? Intuitive leaps are the bread and butter of neural nets.
Re: Just own the damn robots
#130Reads like this are slowly convincing me not to buy into the world of mortgages and debt and to just live the rest of my life paying for everything in cash. I tried to buy a house last year with my wife but the market exploded where I live and suddenly houses were 40% more expensive from last year. So we still rent, which makes me feel incomplete. Like I'm kind of failing my duty of bringing the Canadian Dream to my…
To paraphrase George Carlin, they call it "the dream" because you'd have to be asleep to believe it.