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Just own the damn robots

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Re: Just own the damn robots

#91

Post by the8472 »

pdeuchler wrote: post #42
arichard123 wrote: post #21

I just don't buy it. I understand I'm in a minority, so let me indulge myself and explain, for a moment, why I think AI / Robots are nothing to worry about. My claim is: Robots will not replace humans in all jobs. Further, it's more than because of Human preference, I think that Robots will lack cognitive abilities that we have. My expectation is that in each area where they are deficient then they may well become a…

Reducing employment by 10% would be catastrophic for the US economy and will cause massive social unrest, not to mention the effects in developing countries where people who have just been pulled out of abject poverty in the last generation will suddenly see those opportunities disappear again. Now remember truck drivers are the most populous single occupation in the US, and commercial trucking is expected to be larg…

> Now remember truck drivers are the most populous single occupation in the US

Based on non-uniform binning criteria. Bin differently and other jobs might be on the top. Although they might be just as susceptible to automation. It's a nice example, but it is about as solid as pluto's planetary status.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#92

Post by robotresearcher »

jameshart wrote: post #46
paulpauper wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are software, not hardware, so you're not owning the robots.

The robots are not literally robots in this story. Trading algorithms are robots. Uber's ability to connect riders and drivers is a robot. That said, Amazon and google are in the robot hardware business literally, too.

Amazon is, but their customer is themselves. They use 50,000 robots today and that will grow fast.

Google doesn't sell robots. I don't know if they use them, apart from a few for research.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#93

Post by pm »

sf_rob wrote: post #43
Apocryphon wrote: post #28

"Player Piano" should be required reading for all. It doesn't have to be the future, but it's a future worth examining.

"Manna"[1] as well. While I don't like the writing style, I love the story. Especially since it shows AI gutting middle management in an interesting way before robotics is mature enough to do all the dextrous tasks. 1 http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

Agreed. While I'm not a fan of the writing style either, the premise was enough to keep me interested until the end. It wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't too far off the mark for the next 50 or so years.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#94

Post by mattnewton »

matthewbauer wrote: post #79

Interesting article but I think the premise that workers are buying tech stocks because they fear automation is incorrect. Gallup found 13% of Americans thought that their jobs would soon be replaced by automation[1]. In fact you usually find more people worried about immigration than automation[2]. Maybe people /should/ be more concerned about automation but they just aren’t right now. [1]: http://news.gallup.com/po…

That’s a good data point, though it doesn’t preclude the people in that Gallup poll being a different population than those making large investment purchases in the story. Those workers don’t own a grocery stores.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#95

Post by marcus_holmes »

vkou wrote: post #82
philipkglass wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When even a small percentage of the rich oppose an extermination program for the bottom 90%, it turns a plan for tidy mass murder into chaotic war with dangerous risks to even the richest. That's why I don't put much weight on the "rich exterminate the unneeded poor" scenario, as outlined in Peter Frase's "B" scenario from Four Futures .

The more likely outcome of a true post-scarcity society is the 90% will be house servants for the 10%.

This has always proved to be unstable.

It will always result in revolution. The 90% will demand an equal share.

The sad bit is that the revolutions seem to destroy the robots, not share the wealth. The 90% elect a different 10%, who then build more robots. See Animal Farm for details.

The 10% have to share the pie, at least enough to prevent revolution.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#97

Post by tibbetts »

kmicklas wrote: post #70
paulpauper wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix has a ~200 PE ratio, there is no means for it to ever justify its existing valuation (400 million global subscribers? no chance), much less a far higher one. Their present business model has never proven the ability to produce good margins, content has perpetually sapped their earnings potential and is likely to continue to do so. Facebook and Google will stagnate and grow into their valuations. Google partic…

> will be permanently successful Surely you don't mean actually permanent. So what time scale do you think they will last?

One reasonable perspective is they will be successful until there is a market correction so large it can't be hedged against. World War Three, global warming societal collapse, popular revolution, or massive antitrust activity.

As they say, "in the long run we are all dead."

Re: Just own the damn robots

#98

Post by Waterluvian »

Reads like this are slowly convincing me not to buy into the world of mortgages and debt and to just live the rest of my life paying for everything in cash. I tried to buy a house last year with my wife but the market exploded where I live and suddenly houses were 40% more expensive from last year.

So we still rent, which makes me feel incomplete. Like I'm kind of failing my duty of bringing the Canadian Dream to my family. But I gotta tell you, seeing 45% of my before tax income going into savings feels amazingly liberating. I stopped calling my savings a "down payment". It's now, "two college funds and 3 years of unemployment."

I feel in total control of my future this way, but I also feel like I'm feeding into the apocalypse paranoia. I won't actually need this unemployment cash will I?

Re: Just own the damn robots

#99

Post by bmomb »

marcus_holmes wrote: post #95
vkou wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more likely outcome of a true post-scarcity society is the 90% will be house servants for the 10%.

This has always proved to be unstable. It will always result in revolution. The 90% will demand an equal share. The sad bit is that the revolutions seem to destroy the robots, not share the wealth. The 90% elect a different 10%, who then build more robots. See Animal Farm for details. The 10% have to share the pie, at least enough to prevent revolution.

The revolution aspect will still be relevant when we consider autonomous war machines?

What power the 90% have when its opposed to drones, or some other hi-tech weapon?

Re: Just own the damn robots

#100

Post by partiallypro »

disease wrote: post #62
a_brawling_boo wrote: post #58

I came to see if people were talking about the robotics and automation ETF cited in the article and if it would be a good idea to buy at this point, but seems that everyone is having philosophical conversation instead of a investing conversation :-p

From a clueless investor here, it seems like NVidia would be a good play if you anticipate widespread growth in machine learning.

Not sure if I'd want to chase Nvidia here, granted you could have said that 30% ago. I just don't see it as a sustained thing, because I believe FPGAs will eventually become the ML solution for giant corporations like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, IBM etc. Couple that with Tesla ditching Nvidia on the self driving things...I think Nvidia's run is in its late stages. It's still a great company, with a great product, but I think more than ML right now, it is riding a bitcoin train. It's like a pair trade.
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