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Tesla’s New Car Smell

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Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#51

Post by KKKKkkkk1 »

carlivar wrote: post #4

The author is only comparing production ability and basic mechanical stats with the Bolt and Leaf. I am on the Model 3 waiting list for the Autopilot. Heck, it could be gas powered and I'd be on the waiting list for the Autopilot. I don't need full autonomous. I just want the best system, and currently Tesla has it. So hopefully they figure out their production issues. I also just bought a 2018 Honda Odyssey as our m…

What makes you think Tesla has the best system? The managers in charge of autopilot keep quitting. The media says they are quitting because Elon is making deceptive claims about autopilot. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#52

Post by tgtweak »

ojm wrote: post #50
QAPereo wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to 3 Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-teslas-production-delays...

> major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand Reminds me of some other automotive companies when a new car is launched..

Good to see "do things that don't scale" being applied to the very definition of things that need to scale.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#53

Post by grok2 »

carlivar wrote: post #4

The author is only comparing production ability and basic mechanical stats with the Bolt and Leaf. I am on the Model 3 waiting list for the Autopilot. Heck, it could be gas powered and I'd be on the waiting list for the Autopilot. I don't need full autonomous. I just want the best system, and currently Tesla has it. So hopefully they figure out their production issues. I also just bought a 2018 Honda Odyssey as our m…

https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/PR20170912.as... -- interesting comments by NTSB on a Tesla crash that involved the autopilot. Seems like their autopilot is similar to autopilot's in other cars, but with different (my read was it was more "relaxed") settings. Tesla seems to have since adjusted their settings though.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#54

Post by Analemma_ »

xenadu02 wrote: post #49

Manufacturing ramp-up is exactly this sort of thing. Building by-hand as you work out the process and employ more automation. I'm not sure this is unexpected? As an investor I know full well Tesla has a ticking clock. They must achieve scale before the giants can catch up. People underestimate how god-awful slow the big car makers are. They haven't even come to terms with what Tesla is really doing yet. None have any…

> People underestimate how god-awful slow the big car makers are

I think it’s exactly the opposite. People enamoured with Tesla and Musk tend to over-estimate how slow the old car makers are, because they’re so used to the “Silicon Valley story” that we will inevitably come in and take over everything.

Look: it’s 2017. Everybody has read the Innovator’s Dilemma, everybody knows how fast e.g. Palm, Nokia, etc. went out of business. The old companies aren’t stupid, and they aren’t sitting around waiting for Tesla to eat their lunch.

> None have anything like the software experience.

GM is arguably in the lead right now as far as autonomous driving capability. They’re at least tied with Google and certainly ahead of Tesla.

I’m going to be blunt: you don’t sound like a very good investor. You sound like someone who makes decisions based on hype and wishful thinking instead of real evidence. My recommendation would be to get out now before you lose your shirt.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#55

Post by squarefoot »

csours wrote: post #23

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor. People believe funny things about Tesla and Elon. But before I talk about that, let me say: I've been extremely impressed with Tesla and Elon for their ability to eventually deliver, and to build unparalleled excitement around electric vehicles. I believe Elon is truly a visionary. Now for the funny things: 1. You can throw money at problems to fix them: If you do t…

"2. [...] right now they make cars and that's all you can grade them on right now. If you want to make a bet about the future, go for it, but realize that it is a bet."

This. But the potential is huge compared to other vendors for being more biased to research than production. Other vendors are forced to keep time, people and money allocated to maintain their 19th century gas engines production while Tesla can use all its resources for new things. Having a lot of brain power devoted to new ideas will inevitably bring achievements in other fields, which won't necessary become Tesla products. A serendipitous discovery could lead to a patent for something they cannot produce or aren't interested in producing (say a new medical machine) but could license to others.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#56

Post by arve0 »

carlivar wrote: post #4

The author is only comparing production ability and basic mechanical stats with the Bolt and Leaf. I am on the Model 3 waiting list for the Autopilot. Heck, it could be gas powered and I'd be on the waiting list for the Autopilot. I don't need full autonomous. I just want the best system, and currently Tesla has it. So hopefully they figure out their production issues. I also just bought a 2018 Honda Odyssey as our m…

Have you seen this, https://youtu.be/PwOnsT2UW5o?

You might be able to DIY.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#57

Post by csours »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #48
QAPereo wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to 3 Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-teslas-production-delays...

> still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” The press is up and running: https://www.instagram.com/p/BaInXGBg9G7/ Based on a 3.7 second cycle time, they can bang out 5,837,837 body panels per year (assuming some math an automotive engineer on /r/teslamotors provided that takes into account downtime and typical automotive labor scheduling: 5…

6 is much too few. You have floorpan, roof (even if the roof is glass you still have to hold it), hood, liftgate/trunk, each door inner, each door outer. Thats 12 big ones, then all of the little ones that stiffen the big ones, and the other little ones that make things like the door pillars. There's probably like 70 stamped metal parts in all.

There are probably a number of press lines and the press lines would be changing dies periodically to make different parts.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#58

Post by wpietri »

carlivar wrote: post #18
Hypx wrote: post #13

> I couldn’t help check off the sins against the “Toyota Bible”, prescriptions for car manufacturers that are lucidly detailed in The Machine That Changed The World (a great and, in parts, sad read). In particular, one mustn’t stockpile parts on the floor, they must be fed in small quantities at small time intervals. If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to the supplier who can inspe…

What makes you think Tesla doesn't fundamentally grasp it? This anecdote? The plural of anecdote is not data. Your wikipedia link on the Toyota Production System says it was developed between 1948 and 1975. So it look 27 years to develop. Working for a startup myself, I'm very aware of Kanban and other TPS-inspired work processes. Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window and I think that's…

> Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window

If that's how you use it, then you also don't grasp it. The point of a process is that it supports you in hard times. (In easy times, any process will do.) In my view, the essence of Lean is patient incremental gain. Giving in to panic is throwing all its benefits away, and creating both immediate and long-term problems for yourself.

A good counterexample to your theory is Toyota itself. They created the hybrid category from scratch. They are still the market leader. They started by building one. They moved on to a small annual production volume. As they worked out the kinks, they sold more and more, eventually starting to sell in the US. As far as I can tell, at no point did they enter "hair-on-fire mode".

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#59

Post by carlivar »

majormajor wrote: post #47
carlivar wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really find it hard to believe they don't understand the TPS. Sure. Maybe. I don't know. It seems more likely to me their "goal" (pun intended for those readers of "The Goal") is the TPS but their particular supply chain may not currently allow for it.

So even that interpretation leaves me wondering "why didn't they take that into account earlier"? Do the fancy computer-control-all-the-things people have too much influence compared to the boring practicalities of things like "how will we build this?" Fundamentally my question on Tesla is now: if you're priced as a "we have a fundamentally better way of doing things that will disrupt the industry" company, but the c…

Here we agree. I come across as a Tesla fanboy in these comments but I think Tesla's valuation is crazy high, too high, and I still think there's a chance they fail completely like so many other auto companies (a tough business).

My theory is Musk knows the only way he'll be able to compete is attracting the best talent through stock incentives, and to do that he needs to jack up the stock price by pushing engineers way past what they are comfortable with.

An underreported stat is the increase in TSLA outstanding shares, which I think is Elon throwing stock incentives at his employees to make them go faster, as a TPS alternative (for now?)

https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/shares_outstanding

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#60

Post by in_cahoots »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #48
QAPereo wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to 3 Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-teslas-production-delays...

> still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” The press is up and running: https://www.instagram.com/p/BaInXGBg9G7/ Based on a 3.7 second cycle time, they can bang out 5,837,837 body panels per year (assuming some math an automotive engineer on /r/teslamotors provided that takes into account downtime and typical automotive labor scheduling: 5…

I’m not sure how this is relevant? Production is only as fast as its slowest component; it doesn’t matter if you can bang out a billion body panels per year if you don’t have enough human labor to put the pieces together.
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