Will automation put an end to the American trucker? • Hacker News Board

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#151

Post by firethief » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 1:28 AM UTC

panopticon wrote: post #88

didgeoridoo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of unknowns here. The factors putting downward pressure on trucker salaries are: - Remote operation of trucks is an easier lifestyle, so more people would be willing to take the job, driving down salaries - Fewer human truckers are needed per truck on the road, so for a given level of trucking activity, fewer jobs exist Some potential countervailing factors: - Price of trucking plummets, potentially j…

> Managing multiple vehicles may end up being more cognitively challenging than driving a single truck, reducing the pool of available workers and driving up salaries Tangential to this point: If this mode of truck operation becomes prevalent, I could potentially see a path where warehouses/loading docks get employees certified (a la forklift truck certifications) to operate the truck on premises to handle the "last…

I think you're drastically underestimating the difficulty involved in manuevering an eighteen wheeler around the premises of a typical business. There's no way it would be cost effective to train people for that so that they can spend most of their time doing something else.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#152

Post by jackvalentine » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 1:33 AM UTC

Chaebixi wrote: post #71

WalterBright wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It just seems bizarre that "highway trains" have to be reinvented alongside railroad tracks.

I don't think a rail train could detach a car from the middle without stopping and park it on the side of the track.

From the middle no, but it's been done from the end - you just have to plan the makeup of your train.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#153

Post by ams6110 » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 1:41 AM UTC

Johnny555 wrote: post #103

dogruck wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, this is often the answer. Same with "why do we still have humans taking orders at McD?" Then it materializes when the cashier's minimum wage pops up -- in comes the kiosks.

I don't think it has anything to do with cashier wages, and more to do with customer perception. Kiosks are already cheaper than people. With minimum wage at $7.25/hour, and a Kiosk being able to replace 2+ shifts (16 hour days 7 days a week), that's $30K/year in savings, which would more than pay for a kiosk and maintenance. Developing the software to run them isn't free, but spreading $15M in development costs amon…

Also usability. Ever watched an older person try to get a drink out of one of those touch-screen drink dispensers with 100 choices of soda+flavors?

Same would happen with a kiosk order taker. Two humans talking can still communicate much more reliably than one human navigating a somewhat unfamiliar UI.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#154

Post by dchuk » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 1:46 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #35

dchuk wrote: post #13

The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains...there will be a real human driver in the front of the caravan, maybe just in a van or car, and then 1-10 self driving heavy duty trucks behind them. They'll draft off of each other and do 99% of the long haul route in an automated way. Once each truck is near it's destination, it will peel off of the pack and park itself near the highway, at which…

It just seems bizarre that "highway trains" have to be reinvented alongside railroad tracks.

Trains go to many less places than highways do at this point.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#155

Post by winstonewert » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 1:46 AM UTC

robotresearcher wrote: post #149

winstonewert wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and spent by them as well.

Rich people spend much less of their money on stuff than poor people do. Another thousand to a millionaire goes on the pile. Another thousand to a single mom goes on kids' shoes and car repairs.

Nobody throws their money into a pile.

Rich people predominantly invest their money which is still paying people to perform work, just like repairing shoes and cars.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#156

Post by ams6110 » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 1:47 AM UTC

malandrew wrote: post #55

I haven't thought of this until now, but it's going to be interesting to see the impact of self driving trucks on human migration. Today many people feel trapped where they live because it's prohibitively expensive to move. Once self-driving trucks are common, the cost of moving across the country should plummet. Imagine being able to move everything in your apartment or home across the country for a few hundred doll…

If you're loading and moving yourself, a U-Haul or similar is not that expensive. I've done interstate moves and the truck rental was never more than a few hundred dollars.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#157

Post by cprayingmantis » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 1:47 AM UTC

stefan8r wrote: post #91

WalterBright wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The long haul stuff should go on rails anyway. It's very wasteful to run it on the interstates. The majority of the fatigue damage to the highways comes from trucks, then there's all the rubber dust, fuel inefficiency, etc. The trailers should just be picked up and dropped on flatcars, and trucks used for intracity last mile stuff.

This is Stefan, from Starsky Robotics. I hear this all the time, and honestly in many cases a truck is the transportation of last resort. If you need 5 shipping containers of goods going from A->B all arriving at Time X; it's probably going by train. An issue with rail (as pointed out by others) is how to haul the freight from the rail head (rail yard) to the end warehouses, and the extra time it takes to have goods…

Hey are you all trying to sell your hardware and software or are you trying to create a whole shipping company? Who are your competitors? I've been trying to do some research on companies in this space but it's been a bit hard to find info on anyone except Otto. If you've got the time I'd like to ask you a few questions, my email is in my profile.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#158

Post by dchuk » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 1:48 AM UTC

malandrew wrote: post #56

dchuk wrote: post #13

The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains...there will be a real human driver in the front of the caravan, maybe just in a van or car, and then 1-10 self driving heavy duty trucks behind them. They'll draft off of each other and do 99% of the long haul route in an automated way. Once each truck is near it's destination, it will peel off of the pack and park itself near the highway, at which…

What are the names of some of these companies in the trucking telematics space? Curious to know more about what they track.

(Not being a jerk) if you just Google "truck telematics" the front page (and ads) are basically the big players. There are many more who you'll never hear about too.

They generally track the Tractor (truck) and Trailer, and also provide regulatory (hours of service) and Dispatch (sending jobs to drivers).

They also do a million other things, but that's the gist.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#159

Post by ams6110 » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 1:49 AM UTC

petra wrote: post #97

rezashirazian wrote: post #38

Everyone talks about truck drivers becoming obsolete once self driving cars take over the road. What I would worry about are endless number of doctors and surgeons that spent a life time mastering a skill and will just as easily be rendered obsolete by the same technology. Lawyers too.

Don't worry about doctors. Political power wins out in the end, and they have tons of it. For example: for decades they've managed to resist entry of decision-support systems(which were not perfect, but still, an improvement), even though their own error rate is ~1/8.

Pretty much the reason I don't go to the doctor unless I need stitches or am experiencing intolerable pain.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#160

Post by Judgmentality » Wed, Oct 11, 2017, 2:09 AM UTC

cprayingmantis wrote: post #157

stefan8r wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is Stefan, from Starsky Robotics. I hear this all the time, and honestly in many cases a truck is the transportation of last resort. If you need 5 shipping containers of goods going from A->B all arriving at Time X; it's probably going by train. An issue with rail (as pointed out by others) is how to haul the freight from the rail head (rail yard) to the end warehouses, and the extra time it takes to have goods…

Hey are you all trying to sell your hardware and software or are you trying to create a whole shipping company? Who are your competitors? I've been trying to do some research on companies in this space but it's been a bit hard to find info on anyone except Otto. If you've got the time I'd like to ask you a few questions, my email is in my profile.

This is their competition, and they're much better funded (although funding doesn't necessarily equal success).

http://embarktrucks.com/