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Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

theguardian.com

91–100 of 192 posts

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#91

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

The long haul stuff should go on rails anyway. It's very wasteful to run it on the interstates. The majority of the fatigue damage to the highways comes from trucks, then there's all the rubber dust, fuel inefficiency, etc. The trailers should just be picked up and dropped on flatcars, and trucks used for intracity last mile stuff.

This is Stefan, from Starsky Robotics.

I hear this all the time, and honestly in many cases a truck is the transportation of last resort. If you need 5 shipping containers of goods going from A->B all arriving at Time X; it's probably going by train.

An issue with rail (as pointed out by others) is how to haul the freight from the rail head (rail yard) to the end warehouses, and the extra time it takes to have goods go on two trucks and one train instead of just one truck. The other issue is that in the US it's really hard to hire and retain long haul truck drivers (it turns out most people want to go home each night after a hard day’s work).

Competition to hire drivers is fierce, and driver turnover can be 100%/yr...which means sometimes your drivers don't show up to pull your freight. Rail is also generally cheaper so if you can put your goods on the train you do.

As far as wear and tear on the highway: that's what weigh stations are for. They not only assign usage taxes, they also make sure weight is evenly distributed across the axles to limit damage to the road.

/SSA

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#92
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this could all add up to a case where the price of truck transportation drops so much that demand for truck drivers actually increases The problem is that local drivers average about half the pay ($30-40k) vs long-haul drivers ($70-80k). Even if there is more demand for local drivers it likely won't offset the wages lost.

The wages aren't "lost", the "saved" money will still be paid to somebody to do something.

Typically the gains would be shared through lower prices to customers and higher profits. Lower costs might also increase demand for services and goods, growing the industry and increasing employment elsewhere in companies, though that latter is likely to be a relatively small effect.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#93

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

Corollary - Why no driverless trains yet?

There's an initiative to move to autopilot for trains, or Positive Train Control. The US Gov't started the initiative in 2008 after a particularly gnarly train accident which killed 25 people. It was due to be rolled out in 2015 and we're still waiting...

For long-haul rail freight the economics don't matter as much as they do for trucks. 1-2 people can control a 7 mile train as opposed to trucks which have 1 driver per 50' trailer.

/SSA

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#94
post #31

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

I really don't see why autonomous vehicles couldn't handle the first/last miles soon after mastering the open road. I think only regulation would made this a requirement.

I expect many regular delivery end points will get set up with autonomous vehicle standardised parking bays, with programmed routes in and out added to the AI mapping databases. If you don’t have one of those, you’ll need to pay a premium for driver operated delivery or remote driver guidance.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#95

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

Corollary - Why no driverless trains yet?

There was an ELI5 post the other day with a pretty detailed response[0]

The TL;DR amounts to the braking system and current regulation about when trains are eligible to be automated.

[0]https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/712012/e...

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#96
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corollary - Why no driverless trains yet?

The savings likely aren't worth it. Trains can pull a lot of cargo compared to a truck, so the marginal cost for a driver is a substantially smaller percentage.

Yup, this is often the answer.

Same with "why do we still have humans taking orders at McD?" Then it materializes when the cashier's minimum wage pops up -- in comes the kiosks.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#97

Everyone talks about truck drivers becoming obsolete once self driving cars take over the road. What I would worry about are endless number of doctors and surgeons that spent a life time mastering a skill and will just as easily be rendered obsolete by the same technology. Lawyers too.

Don't worry about doctors. Political power wins out in the end, and they have tons of it.

For example: for decades they've managed to resist entry of decision-support systems(which were not perfect, but still, an improvement), even though their own error rate is ~1/8.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#98
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corollary - Why no driverless trains yet?

They exist, you can find them on e.g. the London underground.

I'm curious how the minimum wage compares in the various train driver jurisdictions. (I don't know -- possibly not relevant.)

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#99
post #22
post #13

The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains...there will be a real human driver in the front of the caravan, maybe just in a van or car, and then 1-10 self driving heavy duty trucks behind them. They'll draft off of each other and do 99% of the long haul route in an automated way. Once each truck is near it's destination, it will peel off of the pack and park itself near the highway, at which…

Too bad that all the "speculative VC dollars" seem to be in trying to jump directly to full-automation of multiple small passenger vehicles. Now, I've never heard any public figure say this out loud -- so maybe I'm just barking up the wrong tree -- but I think the bandwagon is being pulled by a very particular idea about a market they can try to corner. Specifically, they're thinking of a future demographic bump in p…

In these times, you need very little to start a bubble.
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