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Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

nytimes.com

201–210 of 223 posts

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#201
post #96

I may not understand the scope of this project, but when I read the $2 billion, my thought was "wow that's cheap!" Consider the Big Dig or the current Seattle tunnel, at $14B+ and $3B+ respectively.

I don't know how they handle infrastructure, but whatever they do seems like something the rest of the world could learn from. A little while ago it made international news when they fixed a sink hole in a few days: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/15/asia/fukuoka-sinkhole-fill...

There is also this:

1,200 Japanese workers convert above-ground train to subway line in a matter of hours.

https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/2msfz2/1200_japanes...

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#202
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also too, of course you should build your "prevent floods from wrecking our shit" system to handle floods "beyond anything we've seen before". Building it to handle less than what you've seen before would be stupid.

> Building it to handle less than what you've seen before would be stupid. Let me tell a second hand anecdote of a Burmese village. It was a rather small collection of huts raised on tall poles. But it was a village none the less. All paths in the village were laid out with a connected mass of wood. Along the path were sticks, rising pretty high up in the air. Somewhere along the top of the sticks were a lot of cuts…

Probably going over the margin would be a matter of wet feet and moving some bamboo which wouldn't be as big a deal as flooding Tokyo.

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Adaptation without mitigation will not be effective as the impacts worsen. Uncapped emissions and business as usual scenarios will cause outcomes that we will not be able to build ourselves out of. We must reduce emissions and push for sustainable infrastructure and solutions, now. We must adapt and we must also mitigate. Only through the combination of both efforts and through our determination and willingness to le…

Nah, the problem is self-limiting. If global warming reduces the carrying capacity of the environment, people will die. Dead people don't use resources; their bodies are returned to the environment by decomposers, where they will provide fertilizer for trees and other plants, which will grow even more abundantly because of the enhanced CO2 levels. Eventually the earth reaches a new equilibrium at a somewhat higher te…

I hear the eco-nihilist party is polling excellently, pretty soon everyone will see the folly of trying to improve anything ever.

Too bad the people who die in the name of "carrying capacity"always tend to be brown and poor.

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that we could be headed for a mass extinction, whether or not humans manage to survive thousands of years longer. We aren’t going to entirely destroy life on the planet, which will eventually recover great diversity (speciation to fill new ecological niches in some new stable equilibrium) within a few million years after we’re gone, but it will look significantly different than what we are familiar with. Tha…

This issue is too political for normal people to properly understand. I don't mean to offend you personally but there's little value in the feelings of someone who's been immersed in a social atmosphere of global warming propaganda, calls to action, and pressure to shut down dissenting voices. Even scientists can't safely publish work on positive effects of climate change or areas where it's not as bad as previously…

What of the things that we "must" do do you actually disagree with?

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That megafauna didn't live in e.g. megacities (containing vital infrastructure and toxic chemical factories) built on coastal flood plains. They also didn't have a (fairly) monocultured web of food items that could be devastated by climate change. Or a bee infrastructure that was already struggling and could be tipped over into extinction which then leads to much bigger problems. Sure, we're going to have a smaller c…

Is it well understood why bee infrastructure is struggling? I was under impression causes behind bee problems are still unknown so I wouldn't connect it to climate change necessarily. You are right that our civilization is very vulnerable because of our agriculture and food logistics being very fragile. A single really bad draught on a global scale would cause massive problems in feeding the large population we have.…

> I wouldn't connect [bee troubles] to climate change necessarily.

Oh, no, sorry, I wasn't - I was just saying that it was already quite wobbly and even a small push from something like climate change could topple it.

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way I see it, the only possible way to stop the coming disaster is for the entire world to come together, collectively, and limit population with sterilization lottery programs. We need to bring things down to 1 billion or less people. Nations that don't volunteer willingly will have to be drug along by force. This probably won't happen, though. We're f#@^ed.

Every single country that has become wealthy has seen a drop in reproduction rates to rates lower than what's necessary to keep population numbers steady–except the US because somehow they managed to be become more religious with time. Meaning you can make excellent progress towards your goal without committing injustices on an industrial scale. Instead, you get to work on empowering women and bringing education, eco…

The only reason the US reproduction rate isn’t lower is due to massive immigration. If you take out the cohort of people who’ve moved here in the past generation, the rate looks much more like that of European nations.

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#207
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bill Gates denies making that 640K statement, and there's no clear evidence he ever said it: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/09/08/640k-enough/ There's also no clear evidence that Thomas Watson ever made the world market for five computers statement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_J._Watson#Famous_attrib...

Congrats. You poked a hole in the meta-consensus, proving the point. You ignore the others, that dogma leads to shallow thinking. All the world is the blend of chaos and order; acceptance and rejection, yin and yang. Your contribution helps drive the analytical consideration of acceptance or rejection.

I accept that dogma can allow wrong thoughts to persist, to drive criticism underground.

I accept that prevailing scientific/expert opinions can also be right.

I accept that the claim of climate change, if true, would have disastrous consequences on a huge number of human lives, and of course business.

I also accept that I'm not seeing people studying this field denying human caused climate change.

I am not seeing countries other that the U.S, where it has become political, denying climate change.

In fact, I see a larger number of nations in the world agree on something than ANYTHING in human history. These countries have their own scientists.

I can certainly entertain that a few countries might make false claims to push other countries to make bad investments. But you're claiming that a global conspiracy on a literally unprecedented scale is happening and that we should ignore a high consequence concept because a relatively small number of people that happen to come from the single country where it is a political issue and to a dizzying degree come from outside the field say everyone else is wrong?

I'm not a climate scientist. I've done a little digging and have my own guess as to what is likely correct, but frankly my opinion of this is low confidence because I'm so ignorant on the topic. When one side says volcanoes are orders of magnitude less greenhouse gas contributers than humanity, and the other side says the reverse, any decision I make is based other than evidence.

Using the same criteria I use to decide what OTHER scientific advice I follow, I conclude that there is a chance that counter positions to climate change are correct...but is more likely that they are wrong.

High chance of occurrence x high consequence if it happens = you need a lot more evidence than I've seen.

If the history books in 500 years talk about how humanity put forth a lot of effort to stop a calamity at a global scale that turned out to be snake oil, that is still a result preferable than about how people followed dogma that lead them to discount repeated evidence and the millions or billions of people suffered for generations. That might sound like a straw man - i could say that failing to rub my head daily would have disastrous consequences - but when paired with the likelihood that someone on the internet saw through this global hoax, it is part of my reasoning.

May I ask your profession and country of residence?

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Scientists were widely confident about the correctness of Newton's 2nd law and the universal law of gravitation up till the late 1800s/early 1900s. Then Einstein showed their limitations/incorrectness. While Einstein revised them, the Newtonian equations are correct enough that they are still generally used for all kinds of things. If that the best example you can use to make the argument that the current scientifi…

Bloodletting. It's honestly trivial to find examples of where science was wrong. I'm not going to research them for you if you'll make up ad-hoc reasons to reject them. Obviously I can't give an example of current consensus being likely wrong because if I knew that, scientists would too and it wouldn't be the consensus. Here's a snarky example though. See if you can find the flaw in it - current consensus among scien…

Cannot prove causation is not the same as cannot conclude causation. As you point out with your medical example, we have plenty of cases where we act with evidence but not proof. Sometimes these are wrong...but more often they are not (when talking about science).

Often there is some evidence in both directions (for/against a theory), so we likewise have experience and examples where we must decide based on that imperfect info.

Given that we will never be able to prove this causation, at least not in the next few lifetimes and given that, right or wrong, the people (vast majority) in the field are saying the problem is real; Given that inaction is terrible if this is all true, then what evidence would convince you (or any example climate change denier) that the concerns are valid?

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How uncertain should man-made global warming sound, in your opinion? You're speaking in gross generalities, perhaps getting some hard numbers. What I've read is that nearly 100% of publishing researchers in the area agree on it (high 90's). ...Actually, it's 97%. I found the paper, which describes the data set and their methodology: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048...

This figure gets trotted out all the time and it's tiresome because it is so unconvincing to anyone who is even a bit sceptical. That's a bit like asking what percentage of Christian priests believe God exists. There's kind of a selection bias there. More helpful are broader surveys including earth scientists, geologists, etc, which (as I recall, not having the source handy) come up much more conflicted, close to 50%…

> More helpful are broader surveys including earth scientists, geologists, etc,

Wait...while i agree that the methodology that gives 97% suffers a selection bias, I don't agree with the above. I would not trust a survey of priests about the existance of God, but I'd prefer their thoughts on the existance of a particular book of the bible than a survey of choir members.

Science is huge and detailed. I'd not trust geologists over physicists about physics. I acknowledge that physicists are not 100% correct, but that doesn't make non-physicists suddenly more likely to be correct.

I can see your point if the claim is 97% of scientists, but the claim is about climate scientists, because they determine the consensus on the topic.

What method of saying whether or not there is a consensus would you accept that doesn't involve bringing in people with no knowledge or experience with the topic?

You mentioned a 50%ish figure for scientists. Do you have a citation? Even if I think the result unconvincing (based on tjis limited info) I'd like to see their methodology and sample size.

Re: Tokyo Is Preparing for Floods ‘Beyond Anything We’ve Seen’

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also too, of course you should build your "prevent floods from wrecking our shit" system to handle floods "beyond anything we've seen before". Building it to handle less than what you've seen before would be stupid.

That isn't entirely true. How much is it worth to upgrade from a "once every 500 years" system to a "once every 5000 years" system? If it's more than the expected damages...

When you start talking truly cataclysmic events, the value of the physical infrastructure at risk will be dwarfed by the human lives. In 2016, the assessed value of all real estate in Manhattan crossed the $1 trillion threshold (which of course leaves out the bridges, the subways, the personal property...) At a value of $9.1 million / life, there are $77.7 trillion worth of humans in New York City.

If there's a natural disaster which would wipe out the population of New York once every 5000 years, we should be willing to spend $15 billion per year to prevent it.

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