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China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

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Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#101

Post by mythrwy »

cmdkeen wrote: post #93
bonzini wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has plenty of rural areas anyway, and NK population is 2% of Chinese population. China is pretty much the only country that can pour enough money into NK to bring it out of poverty, and a border with an important US Ally (South Korea) would be priceless. I don't think that's what they want to do, but it would actually make sense.

China has historically tolerated NK because it doesn't want to share a border with a US ally. China intervened in the Korean War precisely because the UN forces came too far north, in spite of China warning them to stay clear.

So this is why maybe the sudden change of heart. All fun and games watching Uncle Sam get poked in the eye until it appears he is going to have troops on your border if it keeps up.

At this point it's in China's actual interest to resolve the situation. They'd probably like to resolve the situation with with the stick poker intact but that doesn't appear to be acceptable anymore. I'm guessing they are hoping Kim cools it down just enough and they can wait it out until the political climate in the US changes and then business as usual.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#102

Post by AnimalMuppet »

jsgo wrote: post #100
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps true, but also completely off topic. It makes you look like you're just looking for an excuse to score points, rather than contributing to the conversation we're having.

I think it is a fair point within the context. It links up with the "NK developing nukes for survival" but it also plays out in the sense that an outside nation of any sort, including our allies, can never be certain that 4 years from now a deal we made will continue to be honored. Iran, Paris agreement, various trade agreements, NATO, etc. have all been brought into questioning as of late. It is impossible for an al…

Fair point. I read it as an indictment of the unpredictability caused by the change to this administration, not just by the change to a new one, but you're right, it's a larger problem than that.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#103

Post by chickenfries »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #80
irrational wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So by that definition it seems that the USA would not be considered a rational actor since the head of the nation and the majority in congress are pretty much the opposite of predictable and willing to uphold their word.

Perhaps true, but also completely off topic. It makes you look like you're just looking for an excuse to score points, rather than contributing to the conversation we're having.

No this is absolutely relevant. Part of the reason that the Agreed Framework failed was because of the inconsistency and disagreement between the president and congress. And look at Trump criticizing the Iran deal, which the UN has found Iran is upholding. It's clear that the US will do whatever it wants, regardless of whatever deal you have negotiated with them before. This is literally what Trump ran on.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#104

Post by MBCook »

smsm42 wrote: post #95
jcranmer wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor. North Korea is rational. They have a very good idea of how far they can annoy everyone else before it starts to hurt them, and they have proven very adept at being able to extract concessions from the rest of the world. > The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. The only way the problem could be solved diplomatically is a grand bargain between China and the U…

> They have a very good idea of how far they can annoy everyone else before it starts to hurt them, I wouldn't overestimate their knowledge. Just as Saddam Hussein thought he'd be allowed to annex Kuwait and generally behave like an ass and nobody would dare to lift a finger, Kim is probably under the same impression. People think that various totalitarian regimes feed their citizens propaganda, but deep inside the i…

They HAD a very good idea. Kim Jong Ill and Kim Il Sung knew what they were doing through experience. Kim Jong Un hasn’t had the time to get good at that which could be a BIG risk.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#105

Post by MBCook »

crdoconnor wrote: post #65
xir78 wrote: post #7

It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may just force a war...

>It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. The US with Trump at the helm seems perfectly happy to play the evil villain for him, throwing out telegenic threats of nuclear annihilation. If Libya and Iraq prove anything it's not having a nuke program that's actually the greater risk, coz they'll just accuse you having one anyway... >So he may ju…

That assumes he knows how close to the line he can get without it actually causing the war. He may not.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#106

Post by thevardanian »

irrational wrote: post #67
thevardanian wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Put another way. They're not going to play ball. Things cannot be solved diplomatically. Unless you call breaking all diplomatic promises, and developing nukes diplomacy. A rational actor is a nation that is predictable, and is willing to uphold their word, and agreements. If promises are broken, agreements torn a part I don't think that state is a "rational" actor.

So by that definition it seems that the USA would not be considered a rational actor since the head of the nation and the majority in congress are pretty much the opposite of predictable and willing to uphold their word.

Be that as it may. The USA, China, UK, India, etc. are all far more rational actors than NK. So your assertion is irrelevant as even if it is true the US is far more likely to be rational on the geopolitical stage.

Personally I would trust the USA on its word far more than I would NK. I don't know about you.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#107

Post by pcr0 »

thevardanian wrote: post #30
gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> Personally I think while China's interests are in maintaining a peaceful region, we must be wary of the relationship between NK and China. As there is a possibility of another game being played. Perhaps China wants to annex NK.

I don't believe this. I think China wants to avoid the refugee crisis that would ensue on their doorstep if North Korea collapsed.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#108

Post by longcheng »

Historically Korea had been a loyal vassal state of China for thousands of year. China had defended Korea against various barbarians from Mongolia plateau, Japan(multiple times) and America more recently.

The reason NK still exists is not USA's mercy or NK's nuke, it's because it's neighboring with China & Russia. Same thing applies to Vietnam.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#109

Post by sangnoir »

devdoomari wrote: post #40

I've been wary about the Chinese gov's honesty after the economic reparations after THAAD deployment in Korea. (NK made nukes, so US deployed THAAD to defend against NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only 'weapon') Moreover, the Chinese gov. has been sending NK refugees back to NK, even though it knows those people won't end well. But anyway, +1 for Chinese gov. on this stance - I guess this might be…

> NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only 'weapon'

This "defense-only" weapon upsets the decade-old nuclear balance of M.A.D. because the THAAD radar is sensitivity and location weaken China's nuclear retaliatory ability.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#110

Post by krapp »

chickenfries wrote: post #87
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term. I believe that NK was untrustworthy long before the events you cite. They didn't reach a rational conclusion. They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

> They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies. And US policy towards Korea has been something else?

South Korea seems to be doing just fine, and the US seems to be honest about the contempt with which it views the North Korean regime, so I don't really see the purpose of the equivocation you're trying to set, here.
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