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China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

english.yonhapnews.co.kr

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Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#71

Post by smsm42 »

gumby wrote: post #53
thevardanian wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor. I don't see why you say this. I wouldn't say they are especially competent, but they seem to have stayed in existence and played off various larger rivals successfully for 70 odd years.

They stay in existence mostly because nobody wants to take the responsibility for 25 million people that are stuck 70 years behind. The West is in no shape to do any nation-building, neither financially nor ideologically, South Korea has no resources to stomach such huge influx of the population with such huge economic disparity (it's like US would get 150 million immigrants from extremely poor country all at once), and China is completely fine with the position of NK being a permanent toxic dumpster fire and China being seen as the only power being able to manage it and thus being irreplaceable and everyone's savior.

They are as "successful" as cancer is "successful" - it's hard to kill the cancer without killing the patient, but that's not a redeeming quality for cancer. In the same way, it's hard to kill Kim's regime without subjecting 25 million people to extreme dangers, exacerbated by the fact that many of them are already on the brink of starvation, and a lot of them are thoroughly brainwashed. It's not a sign of "success" or regime's rationality, it is the sign that it is hard for us to find a solution for this without hurting a lot of people in process.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#72

Post by dublinben »

thevardanian wrote: post #59
smallnamespace wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's silly. NK is a complete basket case, with a population that has been brainwashed by 70+ years of misrule, a development level probably below China in 1949, and they have a different language and culture. Right now, China gets the benefit of a buffer state without the downside of fixing generations of problems. They would take the blame for every problem. Did you know that the goal of reunification is explicitl…

The issue of reunification in Korea still has significant support. Especially among the older generation, but even if we include the younger generation the support for reunification still exceed 60%. I mean what do you want to do with NK? Leave it be? Laissez faire? Let it develop nukes as a "deterrent"? Let it be aggressive? This will not end will for the region if something isn't done, and SK is reminded that on a…

What makes you think that the status quo for the last 50 years won't continue for 50 more?

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#73

Post by jasonwatkinspdx »

thevardanian wrote: post #30
gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor.

The way they're behaving is quite rational. They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term.

This means a credible nuclear deterrent is the only way to ensure the regime's survival.

Lest people think I'm engaging in apologetics, what they're doing to keep in power is reprehensible. But they're not mad men looking for a symbolic "win" at the cost of suicide.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#74

Post by smsm42 »

thevardanian wrote: post #30
gypsy_boots wrote: post #11

This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> Perhaps China wants to annex NK.

No they don't. Why would they want this radioactive toxic dumpster fire as their full responsibility? They're much better it being within their sphere of influence - so that anybody who wants anything done has to deal with China and make suitable offers to get things done - while having pretty much zero responsibility for the welfare of the people and not being subject of criticism for any atrocities that happen there, and not granting the people there even minuscule rights that Chinese subjects have. Current situation - at least until it explodes into a hot war - is a huge win for China, they are indispensable as the only power capable of putting a leash on Crazy Kim, they look relatively good in comparison to him, and they don't have to spend anything on it or bear any responsibility.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#75

Post by jcranberry »

thevardanian wrote: post #59
smallnamespace wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's silly. NK is a complete basket case, with a population that has been brainwashed by 70+ years of misrule, a development level probably below China in 1949, and they have a different language and culture. Right now, China gets the benefit of a buffer state without the downside of fixing generations of problems. They would take the blame for every problem. Did you know that the goal of reunification is explicitl…

The issue of reunification in Korea still has significant support. Especially among the older generation, but even if we include the younger generation the support for reunification still exceed 60%. I mean what do you want to do with NK? Leave it be? Laissez faire? Let it develop nukes as a "deterrent"? Let it be aggressive? This will not end will for the region if something isn't done, and SK is reminded that on a…

It seemed to me his point was that China probably doesn't want to annex NK because of the economic and developmental hassle involved. Not wanting to annex NK does not mean that he automatically condones a rampant NK.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#76

Post by jcranberry »

athenot wrote: post #12
adamnemecek wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like China is really starting to feel the pain of being associated with NK. I can imagine that they will be pretty thorough on this.

China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them. At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.

They want peace, but they also don't want a US military base on their borders. They're clearly trying to balance the two.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#77

Post by [deleted] »

jasonwatkinspdx wrote: post #73
thevardanian wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The way they're behaving is quite rational. They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term. This means a credible nuclear deterrent is the only way to ensure the regime's survival. Lest people…

[deleted]

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#78

Post by hodgesrm »

jasonwatkinspdx wrote: post #73
thevardanian wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The way they're behaving is quite rational. They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term. This means a credible nuclear deterrent is the only way to ensure the regime's survival. Lest people…

That's assuming that NK is just building the deterrent to stay in power. Another possibility is that they would seek to increase their power against other, non-nuclear armed nations. Many of NK's historical actions such as kidnapping foreign citizens [0] or the abominable treatment of prisoners like Otto Warmbier cannot be explained simply by a rational desire for regime survival. We don't really know what their end game is.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#79

Post by AnimalMuppet »

jasonwatkinspdx wrote: post #73
thevardanian wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The way they're behaving is quite rational. They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term. This means a credible nuclear deterrent is the only way to ensure the regime's survival. Lest people…

> They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term.

I believe that NK was untrustworthy long before the events you cite. They didn't reach a rational conclusion. They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#80

Post by AnimalMuppet »

irrational wrote: post #67
thevardanian wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Put another way. They're not going to play ball. Things cannot be solved diplomatically. Unless you call breaking all diplomatic promises, and developing nukes diplomacy. A rational actor is a nation that is predictable, and is willing to uphold their word, and agreements. If promises are broken, agreements torn a part I don't think that state is a "rational" actor.

So by that definition it seems that the USA would not be considered a rational actor since the head of the nation and the majority in congress are pretty much the opposite of predictable and willing to uphold their word.

Perhaps true, but also completely off topic. It makes you look like you're just looking for an excuse to score points, rather than contributing to the conversation we're having.
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