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Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

businessinsider.com

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Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#51

Post by petraeus »

justboxing wrote: post #3

Don't know anything about Jim Rogers' creds / authority in this matter. How much should be we concerned / alarmed at these statements? > Rogers: It could be an American pension plan that goes broke, and many of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we’re not watching. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war — unlikely to be war, but it’s going to be something. and > Rogers: It’s going to be t…

sell whenever you see your portfolio dip 1%

/s

no but really just leave it in a value index fund, hedge your bets by buying into foreign exposed funds

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#52

Post by lukewink »

ringaroundthetx wrote: post #40

Everyone buying put options, expecting doom and gloom, is contributing to keeping the markets high. When you buy a put, the market maker sells a put and stays delta neutral by buying shares (or more generally, goes long the underlying asset). When everyone buys puts, everyone is making shares get bought. The puts expire worthless and no affect was done to the market except keeping it bullish. edit: I got that wrong,…

If a market maker sells a put and wants to stay delta neutral, they would need to sell shares -- not buy. Selling a put is a long position, not a short.

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#53

Post by petraeus »

jff wrote: post #33
lobut wrote: post #2

Great, now I'm scared. What can I do? Shall I learn mandarin and go to China too?

Given that the current practice for anyone with money in China is to get that money out of China and converted to foreign currency as quickly as possible... I'd counsel against it.

Hes not saying TAKE his money to china, hes GOING to china and hoping to MAKE money

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#54

Post by convolvatron »

defined wrote: post #15
joobus wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First jobs were replaced by simple tools, then by livestock, then by machines. What makes software any different from any other advancements made throughout history?

It's the only advancement where making a million copies of an item takes a few minutes and no raw material. Try that with tools, livestock and machines. Or anything physical.

but before that you have to go through several iterations of failure with a bunch of costly entitled developers before you get something which sort of approximates what you wanted and is so internally broken its almost impossible to extend

not really ragging on the developers, but its not a cheap or risk free process. and if you aren't actively investing in maintenance it will die. the costs are all just per-type not so much per-instance

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#55

Post by misja111 »

ringaroundthetx wrote: post #40

Everyone buying put options, expecting doom and gloom, is contributing to keeping the markets high. When you buy a put, the market maker sells a put and stays delta neutral by buying shares (or more generally, goes long the underlying asset). When everyone buys puts, everyone is making shares get bought. The puts expire worthless and no affect was done to the market except keeping it bullish. edit: I got that wrong,…

That's only half the story. To stay completely delta and gamma neutral, the market maker typically buys not just the share but additionally shorts a call with the same strike as the put.

When he shorts the call it means that someone else buys it. Probably another market maker, who might want to hedge as well, this time by selling the share and buying a put, etc..

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#56

Post by dragonwriter »

joobus wrote: post #10
ckluis wrote: post #5

How many jobs are we replacing with software annually? It will happen sooner or later.

First jobs were replaced by simple tools, then by livestock, then by machines. What makes software any different from any other advancements made throughout history?

All of the earlier advances require human maintenance that scale with the scope of deployment.

The whole reason software is a hot area of investment is that it's support requirements don't scale that way, which means is good for the capitalist from a cost perspective, but bad for the wage-labor dependent class.

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#57

Post by Lost_BiomedE »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #50
santoshalper wrote: post #22

He would be a lot more credible if he could explain what will cause a crash. Basically, he is just betting on a crash every year for whatever reason. Doubtlessly, he is selling something.

He kind of did. He expects the market to become a bubble. Bubbles always crash. What is a bubble? Here's my definition: A bubble is an asset going up because it's been going up. It works like this: Something (the stock market, say) looks good because of fundamentals: because earnings are up, or because interest rates are down, or whatever. People take note: Hey, the stock market looks good. So people buy stocks, so s…

"But it doesn't get truly dangerous until people are buying stocks with borrowed money. "

Currently, the borrowed money is nearly free money via low interest rates. A lot of games are being played to juice out every cent that can be made on being able to get cheap money. When the value of assets used to play these games are ignored vs. the diminishing profit. It becomes musical chairs.

I doubt we get your everyday Joe betting on margin like the dotcom bubble, but we have the same effect, just different users.

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#58

Post by dragonwriter »

defined wrote: post #15
joobus wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First jobs were replaced by simple tools, then by livestock, then by machines. What makes software any different from any other advancements made throughout history?

It's the only advancement where making a million copies of an item takes a few minutes and no raw material. Try that with tools, livestock and machines. Or anything physical.

> It's the only advancement where making a million copies of an item takes a few minutes and no raw material.

And, mire directly to the point, doesn't require additional labor inputs. (If extraction is automated by software tools driving hardware, even things that demand raw materials can have this feature.)

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#59

Post by sssilver »

tomsthumb wrote: post #42
jokoon wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A broken clock is right twice a day

One going backwards is right four times. I'm not totally sure this extends your analogy appropriately, but it's an entertaining thought.

Interesting.

- A broken clock is perfectly right twice a day

- A clock going backwards is perfectly right 4 times a day

- A normal, working clock is probably never perfectly right

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#60

Post by nugget »

MrLeap wrote: post #36
justboxing wrote: post #3

Don't know anything about Jim Rogers' creds / authority in this matter. How much should be we concerned / alarmed at these statements? > Rogers: It could be an American pension plan that goes broke, and many of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we’re not watching. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war — unlikely to be war, but it’s going to be something. and > Rogers: It’s going to be t…

Do your own research, don't do this if you don't know anything about options etc etc etc, but If you're concerned about a huge market crash (like I kind of am) here's what I'm doing: In addition to your regular portfolio distribution, Buy long expiration UVXY puts. UVXY tracks volatility futures. Higher the volatility, higher UVXY price. A put gives you the option to sell shares by a certain date. ETNs that long vola…

What's the end game here - when SHTF you don't care about your puts, because you've finally got a great buying opportunity for the bulk of your cash reserves? How low does it have to go before you start trading the other direction?
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