Live data from Hacker News

Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

businessinsider.com

31–40 of 70 posts

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#31
Well, the shiller CAPE 10 year averge is at 30 right now, which is as high as it was in 1929 right before the great depression.

But, If you look at the CAPE graph for the last 30 years, the average seems a bit higher than normal. I wonder if we're heading for a new normal where the CAPE averages higher due long term changes in allocation of capital, and long term reduced productivity gains.

all the technical analysis says the next 10 years won't be pretty but that doesn't mean it's going to be a steep drop, we could just be going sideways for a long time.

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#32
post #29
post #12

2011: 100% Chance of Crisis, Worse Than 2008: Jim Rogers 2012: Jim Rogers: It’s Going To Get Really “Bad After The Next Election” 2013: Jim Rogers Warns: “You Better Run for the Hills!” 2014: JIM ROGERS – Sell Everything & Run For Your Lives 2015: Jim Rogers: “We’re Overdue” for a Stock Market Crash 2016: $68 TRILLION “BIBLICAL CRASH” Dead Ahead? Jim Rogers Issues a DIRE WARNING 2017: THE BOTTOM LINE: Legendary inves…

Eventually, in the stopped-clock sense, if he lives long enough he might be right.

“Being Right but Being Early Simply Means That You Are Wrong”

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#33
post #2

Great, now I'm scared. What can I do? Shall I learn mandarin and go to China too?

Given that the current practice for anyone with money in China is to get that money out of China and converted to foreign currency as quickly as possible... I'd counsel against it.

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#34

Well, the shiller CAPE 10 year averge is at 30 right now, which is as high as it was in 1929 right before the great depression. But, If you look at the CAPE graph for the last 30 years, the average seems a bit higher than normal. I wonder if we're heading for a new normal where the CAPE averages higher due long term changes in allocation of capital, and long term reduced productivity gains. all the technical analysis…

>long term reduced productivity gains

the robots aren't taking over then?

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#36

Don't know anything about Jim Rogers' creds / authority in this matter. How much should be we concerned / alarmed at these statements? > Rogers: It could be an American pension plan that goes broke, and many of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we’re not watching. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war — unlikely to be war, but it’s going to be something. and > Rogers: It’s going to be t…

Do your own research, don't do this if you don't know anything about options etc etc etc, but If you're concerned about a huge market crash (like I kind of am) here's what I'm doing:

In addition to your regular portfolio distribution, Buy long expiration UVXY puts. UVXY tracks volatility futures. Higher the volatility, higher UVXY price. A put gives you the option to sell shares by a certain date. ETNs that long volatility tend to decay like crazy, buying puts makes this work in your favor so it's not so expensive to hold long. This step is optional, I just like the collecting a premium off the vicious decay while I wait for the "real opportunity".

Now at some point we'll probably encounter some kind of crisis that'll make your long expiration UVXY puts look terrible if you've got any. This is when you buy even more, short expiration UVXY puts. (Weeklies and monthlies.) When the crisis passes, your short term weeklies should be worth quite a bit of money and your long terms will have recovered as well.

You'll have to learn about cotango/backwardation to get a robust execution strategy, but my heuristic is to start building a small position when the VIX is 14, and if the vix gets to 20 start going hard on those monthlies. If "the big one" hits we could see the VIX get to 50+, so if you're guarding that maybe fewer weeklies and more monthlies. :P

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#37
post #20
post #6

A fringe nobody screaming the world is going to collapse for the last 30 years. The only thing this guy can predict is that if he yells and screams the sky is falling loud enough, his next book will do well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers

Where's your Wikipedia page then?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Mullen

Re: Jim Rogers: The worst crash of our lifetime is coming

#40
Everyone buying put options, expecting doom and gloom, is contributing to keeping the markets high.

When you buy a put, the market maker sells a put and stays delta neutral by buying shares (or more generally, goes long the underlying asset). When everyone buys puts, everyone is making shares get bought.

The puts expire worthless and no affect was done to the market except keeping it bullish.

edit: I got that wrong, way wrong. Is there any way that hedging is having the effect of buoying the market?

Post reply on HN