I'm somewhat doubtful of the design as it's explained in this blogpost, seems like there will be lots of treatment externalities. I'd really recommend anyone who's interested read http://cega.berkeley.edu/assets/cega_research_projects/1/Ide... for an explanation of why a totally randomised control trial is the wrong choice for things like this.
Basic Income Research Proposal
381–390 of 427 posts
Re: Basic Income Research Proposal
#382> First, we just wrapped up a one-year feasibility study in Oakland Are the results of this feasibility study publicly available?
Yes, you can go and read about communism and how 100s of millions died while it was being implemented
Please don't take HN into ideological flamewar. It never improves things, and is always the same.
The site guidelines are specifically written to guard against this: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Re: Basic Income Research Proposal
#383Earlier quoted context omitted.
> But what are you basing that belief on? Which part of it? Not too many generations ago, many people lived entirely off the land. A large portion of people's "jobs" were displaced from agriculture and yet over time new jobs keep getting created. There are jobs that no one had even thought of that are now providing for the livelihood of many people. Yes I believe there will also be new things that people want and new…
Which part of it? Not too many generations ago, many people lived entirely off the land. A large portion of people's "jobs" were displaced from agriculture and yet over time new jobs keep getting created. There are jobs that no one had even thought of that are now providing for the livelihood of many people. New jobs keeps getting created simply because the markets have grown through population growth and globalizati…
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Re: Basic Income Research Proposal
#384Earlier quoted context omitted.
In practice hardly anyone believes people who work a full week should have a decent standard of living. If people actually believed that, then no one would purchase goods manufactured in Mexico, China, etc. Instead, it's more accurate to say that people don't want the inconvenience of actually seeing poor people.
I guess this is the usual "hate the game not the player" situation. I wish there was more local products. I'm willing to make sacrifices and vote with my wallet to make that happen. (And I do when it's a realistic alternative) But I can't do that naked - and living in a smallish town, I'd be surprised if I could buy a full set of clothes here which is not produced in China/India/Pakistan/Thailand. (Without going a fe…
Again, if people were really interested in this then protectionist economic policy would be a major topic in every election.
It's worth noting that Barak Obama, in the primaries, campaigned on a platform of renegotiating NAFTA to not fuck over American workers so hard. Then, after the primaries, that topic vanished and once elected he tried to pass TPP which would've been just as bad for American workers as NAFTA. Then of course Trump campaigned on the same issue, but he's Trump and there's not really anything more to say about that.
Re: Basic Income Research Proposal
#385One factor that would be lost in a controlled, basic income test is the inflation effect. Implemented on a national scale, cost inflation of basic consumer needs is a near certainty. On a controlled test of 1000 people inflation would be nearly impossible to achieve without localizing the test to an absurd degree. I could see this test could serving as a dataset for calculating anticipated inflation rates on a nation…
> Implemented on a national scale, cost inflation of basic consumer needs is a near certainty. How so? Is there are large number of consumers that are currently not able to satisfy their current basic needs? Otherwise aggregate demand will stay the same and on the supply side nothing changed, so there is no reason why prices would change.
Why do you think nothing would change on the supply side? There are plenty of low income workers that would quit their jobs, driving their wages up - thereby either driving up the cost of goods or reducing supply. Unless of course the goods are shipped from nonUBI countries
Re: Basic Income Research Proposal
#386Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, what you're describing is the quantity theory of money, but there are other reasons why you could see inflation given a universal income, depending on the circumstances. If you consider the velocity of money, you will almost certainly see inflation on consumer goods if the money to be redistributed would have otherwise just sat in some rich guys's savings account. There are also inflation expectation to conside…
I expect prices to change in order to reflect the new system, but I think people's "sky is falling" concerns about the price of consumer goods shooting up is way off base and sensationalist. UBI alone simply won't provide enough discretionary income to cause sharp increases in demand of goods. Not to mention, the type of goods that a basic income affords are those that are already scaled out and are easily scaled out…
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Re: Basic Income Research Proposal
#387One factor that would be lost in a controlled, basic income test is the inflation effect. Implemented on a national scale, cost inflation of basic consumer needs is a near certainty. On a controlled test of 1000 people inflation would be nearly impossible to achieve without localizing the test to an absurd degree. I could see this test could serving as a dataset for calculating anticipated inflation rates on a nation…
On a first moment, possibly. After that, we would see how free the market really is. If it's reasonably free, the market will self-correct and prices will decrease. A thought experiment: you have a business; now everyone has money; then prices rise "together"; so market distribution remains the same; you decide to reduce your price to the old price and your competitors don't. Now you get customers from your competito…
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Re: Basic Income Research Proposal
#388Earlier quoted context omitted.
Calling it wishful thinking is incredibly dismissive and contemptuous. If you were genuinely interested, you could read the multiple articles I have already written and linked to. I don't think you have bothered to do that. I see no reason to engage further.
I call it that because you haven't actually answered the question I asked you with regards to why people would choose that over technology. Keep in mind you are the one who claimed that we can just design things the way we want them, yet you haven't actually provided anything close to an argument here. That the gig-economy works for you is great, it's just not an actual argument and it's definitely not an argument ag…
This crosses into personal attack. You can't do that here, regardless of how wrong or annoying someone else's comment is, and we ban accounts that do it repeatedly. Would you please (re)-read https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and fix this?
Re: Basic Income Research Proposal
#389Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am not arguing that supply if finite, I am arguing that extraction of supply is finite and if you deincentivise millions of people from working while throwing money at them, you further reduce supply and exacerbate long term economic problems. >So you're using a stereotype to make your argument? Come on The argument could have been made without the stereotype, I agree. But it is an open secret in NYC that people, e…
thanks for trying but HN doesn't want to hear anything but socialist apologia these days.
Re: Basic Income Research Proposal
#390Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe you would, and you know what? Good for you if you do. Just about everyone I know would start a business, volunteer, do creative things, contribute to making the world a better place. But, at the end of the day, I don't care how people spend their time or their money. If some fraction of the population wanted to bum around on their minimal UBI for the rest of their lives, fine by me. It's never going to lead to…
If you don't care at all, then why are you okay financing that situation with your taxes?
because of the multitude of positive effects it has on society that i live in. less depression, less poverty, less risky or criminal behavior, more economic activity, better educators, better medical care workers. this list can go on forever.