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Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

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Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#151
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are Lagrange Points. The cars don't have the hardware to reach them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrangian_point Or maybe there's some notation collision...

It's about level 1-5 autonomy.

I think he was joking :-)

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#152

While I'm almost always bullish on new tech, self-driving cars are one where I frankly have a pretty hard time buying into the hype. I think when they really start to hit the streets, some issues are going to show up. Here's what I mean. Imagine this situation: You're pulling into your driveway in your self-driving car, and one of your kids left a lawn gnome there, blocking it. The car won't go forward because there'…

You're thinking about the tail end of the distribution. If self driving cars can solve 90% of the mass of the distribution, i.e. driving on highways and urban streets, it would be a significant improvement in terms of efficiency. Of course there will always be morale questions like the one you proposed. But quite frankly, the return on investment of solving the tail end scenarios like that is really small.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#153
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Computers are so much better at detecting traction problems that electronic stability control is mandatory in most new vehicles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#R...

Cool. But sometimes the road is just plain impassable. And having grown up in many Iowa winter blizzards, I still don't trust even electronic systems. They help, but sometimes there's nothing you can do when there's basically no friction.

Well, after a few cars get stuck (or crash) it will show up on the mapping system as blocked and the remaining cars will find another route. I'm semi-joking, but human drivers do that more than we would like to admit. Just needs a cheerful "please get out and push" message.

Or take a page from the internet playbook: Destroy the car and re-send from the origin.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#154
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, they're pretty close. Late this year or 2018 they'll have cars driving around empty. I'd like to know more, do you have a source for these claims?

It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. But Reuters reported they intend to put 'thousands' of autonomous Bolts on the road in 2018: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/e... Cruise has released some impressive demos on their YouTube page, of vehicle driving around downtown SF: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA Cruise reported to the California DMV that they aver…

> they'll have cars driving around empty.

> It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred.

Using the words "they will" makes it sound like an assertion. How are you so confident about "events that haven't occurred" will indeed occur? You listed out reports and demos, none of which necessarily suggest that "Late this year or 2018 they'll have cars driving around empty"? Do you have additional inside information that the rest of us don't have?

> Also, because Kyle Vogt said so, and he's never bullshitted me before, he's got credibility.

Is this a serious comment?

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#155
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cool. But sometimes the road is just plain impassable. And having grown up in many Iowa winter blizzards, I still don't trust even electronic systems. They help, but sometimes there's nothing you can do when there's basically no friction.

The safest thing might be for the car to pull over, put on hazard lights, and tell you to wait or call for assistance. Humans deciding to go continue driving in such conditions is a mistake, leading to more collisions. Perhaps there will be a manual override, like "Unsafe conditions, voice password and waiver required to continue in manual mode; you might die or kill someone else."

Once you get into bad snow conditions pulling over is a really bad option. That said, this is a corner case I care less about than crossing Manhattan in rain at rush hour. Or really lots of tricky busy off-highway situations.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#156
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if the future of public transit is autonomous cars? Why do you need buses or trains when you could have machines that can take you from anywhere, to anywhere, on demand, for less than the cost of current public transit fare?

The fundamental problem with cars in cities is that they make each person take up a crazy amount of road area: http://lh3.ggpht.com/_9F9_RUESS2E/S7tbclwxiPI/AAAAAAAACmw/uI...

Well, I think that there's a human controlling the vehicle is a big part of the problem with each vehicle taking up so much space. If autonomous vehicles were working in unison, arguably:

* traffic problems will be significantly reduced * you won't need traffic lights like they exist today * the vehicles can be reduced in size (double occupancy perhaps); a family can just order a couple cars and have communication between them * streets can be reduced to fewer lanes; possibly one-way because the vehicles can navigate the best route in any case

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#157

Hop into our self-driving car! It was designed by a team of inexperienced developers working under a manager who foreshortened deadlines and delivered ahead of schedule and under budget! The software guys asked for crazy things like 'bug trackers' and 'static analysis tools', but we kept their nose to the grindstone. Some of them said the software required more testing, but you know software guys, always such nervous…

Haha! Love it! This is precisely how enterprise software is developed and if you look at the way our industry has trained its managers, I can't think of any reason why the people that make decisions about these things can be convinced to do anything differently. I mean, if you can build buggy software for a Point of Service system this way, surely you can do the same thing with self driving cars! It's just software!…

One would like to think it would be handled by auto manufacturers. But one would be DEAD (literally) wrong. We found this out a few years ago when Toyota killed a couple people with their cars and their "unintended acceleration". The degree to which they were egregiously negligent was astonishing. They were doing development around 2010... and didn't have a bug tracker. Just, nope, no way for developers to keep track of and tell one another about bugs. Who would need such a luxury? Just don't make bugs! The auto industry has a big list of 90+ required standard practices in coding firmware, and 30+ 'recommended' practices. Toyota claimed to adopt 9 of the required ones, but repeatedly violated 3 in the code, nailing 6. The CPU didn't even have error-checking RAM despite Toyotas claims that it did. It was patently absurd how bad - and how utterly standard - their practices were.

And the court looked at it and said "yep, no negligence here. Software has no standards. There are no licensed engineers to hire. Go ahead and do whatever the hell you want, even if it kills people you're fine." No company is going to take the millions of dollars worth of precautions necessary to prevent things like that.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#158
post #44
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's stopping you from taking an Uber everywhere?

Sometimes I drive outside of the city. I go visit my parents a few hours away. Sometimes I want to pick up a huge load of groceries, or go to Ikea.

If you literally don't care what the price tag is, hire a personal driver. People do. But you actually do care about the price tag.

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#159
post #55

>Electric self-driving cars will save millions of lives and significantly accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, but only when they’re deployed in large numbers. Just like cars that we drive, self driving cars enable sprawl. Sprawl will never be environmentally sustainable. We need cities that you move through by foot, bike, and public transit.

> Just like cars that we drive, self driving cars enable sprawl. A self-driving car increases the radius of effect of things like mass transit stations. That can be a useful intermediate step before another transit stop gets built.

[deleted]

Re: Cruise's 3rd generation self-driving car

#160
How much will people be willing to pay for self driving cars? I mean it's nice feature but won't this always be very expensive tech also in the future? How expensive will it be to make this reliable in various regions (road signs, traffic laws)?

Imagine how much money is spent by car manufacturers now just validating the functionality of "simple" tech like locks and wipers at the testing grounds in northern Sweden and similar. All components of these systems will have to go through the same kinds of tests.

My dash display gets funny whenever it's below -20 in the car - I can only imagine what happens to all these sensors.

How cheap do you think this could be made? What price do you think people (consumers, not taxi operators) are ready to pay for decent autonomy in a car?

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