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Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

swpc.noaa.gov

61–70 of 87 posts

Re: Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Per the link above, this is the 8th most powerful CME hitting earth in recorded history. An X9.3 is not a yearly thing.

How far back does "recorded history" go for these sorts of detailed space weather measurements? The linked #8 ranking seems to be based on 20 years of data

I think they go back to the early telegraph based off of observations of static on the wire and other related problems (a telegraph was basically a giant inductor).

Re: Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

#62
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Turns out, eclipses have everything to do with solar flares and every other phenomena you observe: You. All of these things happen to you . We've been trained to look at reality as something 'out there', but truth is that reality happens inside your consciousness and it's unclear where mind ends and 'reality' starts. It's unclear if there's anything but consciousness (note that the 'brain' might also be a construct o…

Reality exists independent of the observer. If there is some relationship between eclipses and hurricanes or between solar flares and seismic activity, they existed long before life originated on earth and would continue to exist far beyond our extinction. While we should not discount their possibility without some research, there is not much reason to believe there is such a connection without further evidence.

> Reality exists independent of the observer.

How do you know?

delegate is dropping science here far beyond current consensus but it is valid even if it doesn't make sense to you (yet.)

Consciousness is primary, physics comes after and is entirely contingent on consciousness. Humans arise within physics, but we are the "minimum system" that can become aware of being aware, and in doing so transcend physics (aka magic or miracles.)

Re: Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How common are long-distance DC lines and what are they used for? My understanding is that the vast majority of power infrastructure is AC, and long distances are using High Voltage AC lines

HVDC is becoming more common for medium and long distance transmission lines because HVDC doesn't suffer from the "skin effect" where current is carried mostly by the outside of the conductor, and therefore you can transmit more power with less conductor with HVDC. The tradeoff is, it's much easier to step up and step down AC voltage (using solid state transformers)

True, but none of this has changed recently.

The recent change is the fact that high-voltage semiconductors now make step-up/step-down efficient. In many cases, more efficient than purely using transformers (most semiconductor stuff still uses some form of inductive effect--they just do so at MUCH higher frequencies than in the past which allows them to use MUCH smaller components and get much higher efficiencies).

One of the big advantages of AC has to do with switching. If you flip a switch on AC, within about 10 milliseconds the voltage goes to zero as a natural consequence of the waveform irrespective of what current was flowing previously. A switch can interrupt that without much grief.

If you flip a switch on DC, it has to completely stop the current flow in the presence of a large current and/or voltage that will create a conductive plasma. That means a much larger switch for the same level of power.

There is a reason why your ISP has a huge switch and it is often encased in some inert gas. And also why it sounds like a bomb going off if it trips. And why it takes a hydraulic pump to reset.

Side note: The Pacific DC Intertie was the largest in the world until the 3 Gorges Dam interties--and it dated to the Kennedy administration and used vacuum tubes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_DC_Intertie

Re: Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

#64
post #30
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For long-distance DC lines, it's a win; the system can use the power. Do you have a reference for that? They may be more resilient than AC lines, but I doubt these systems are designed to use power generated by solar events.

Fun examples have been old telegraph operators having their lines work without power connected. As for recent things I didn't even know long range DC still existed.

High-voltage DC is becoming more popular, not less.

The technical advance has been the efficiency of high-voltage semiconductors.

Re: Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

#65
post #41

This guys [1] apparently predicted the Mexican quake last night. He has an interesting theory regarding connection between Solar activity and earthquakes. Let's hope he's a crank as he's predicting more events for the weekend. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/user/dutchsinse

Selective recall? Those guys predict a lot of earthquakes. You really have to look at it statistically in terms of all hits and misses of their predictions. I can predict there will be an earthquake in the pacific ring of the fire in the next 72 hours, but me being right doesn't mean I know anything except that there are a lot of earthquakes in the ring of fire (which is something, but not specific enough to do anyth…

I agree re. stats, but specific claims he is making is precisely this: for every deep magnitude m there will be compensating shallow magnitude M (> m) along the boundary conditions.

So it isn't just e.g. "earthquake in ring of fire" but rather "strong but shallow earthquakes along west cost and central America". He had also predicted a specific spot in Japan that apparently got hit today with a 4 something. (See his last video.)

Anyway, since now he is predicting a continuity along the fracking zones in the center running East and up to East Coast in the next few days, I guess we'll find out how good his methodology is.

The solar connection he is making is per his conjectured model of Earth (which he claims does not have a solid spinning metal but rather a sort of plasma that gets energy funnled to it via the mag. poles). So one would, as you say, expect to see a pattern of heightened activity correlated with the solar cycles. And I have no idea if that is in fact the case.

Let's see how things pan out.

Re: Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How far back does "recorded history" go for these sorts of detailed space weather measurements? The linked #8 ranking seems to be based on 20 years of data

I think they go back to the early telegraph based off of observations of static on the wire and other related problems (a telegraph was basically a giant inductor).

Are those classifications listed somewhere? I suspect that they'd be much less accurate than the measurements from modern equipment (e.g. satellites)

Re: Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

#67
post #59

Meaning of G4: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation "Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid. Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagat…

> Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems. What causes the tracking and orientation problems? Are they being pushed, or do satellites control their orbit?

I would suspect they are using magnetometers for determining orientation. Those might be affected.

Re: Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

#68
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reality exists independent of the observer. If there is some relationship between eclipses and hurricanes or between solar flares and seismic activity, they existed long before life originated on earth and would continue to exist far beyond our extinction. While we should not discount their possibility without some research, there is not much reason to believe there is such a connection without further evidence.

> Reality exists independent of the observer. Quantum mechanics would like a word with you.

Don't confuse localization with reality.

You also seem to infer observer is some form of intelligence, in reality an observer or a measurement isn't anything more than a physical interaction.

Re: Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

#69
post #59

Meaning of G4: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation "Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid. Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagat…

> Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems. What causes the tracking and orientation problems? Are they being pushed, or do satellites control their orbit?

It takes huge amounts of deliberately applied energy to change their orbit. This is about the influence of the radiation on the sensors and systems which help to control the orientation of the satellites. In particular, magnetorquers use the magnetic field of the earth to (very slowly) dump excess angular momentum from the reaction wheels and control moment gyros.

Solar storms can also add a weak torque onto the satellite, depending on the orientation and shape of its body and solar panels. Again, the satellite has an attitude control system to handle such things, but it will still suffer the impulse response from the transient.

Re: Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

#70
post #67
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems. What causes the tracking and orientation problems? Are they being pushed, or do satellites control their orbit?

I would suspect they are using magnetometers for determining orientation. Those might be affected.

For the most part, orientation is measured optically or thermally - with sun sensors, earth sensors, and star trackers.
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