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Where will artificial general intelligence come from?

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Re: Where will artificial general intelligence come from?

#11

Post by tw1010 »

Will_Do wrote: post #7

That was really interesting. I'm interested why he's so pessimistic about the simulating a brain approach. Yes it's the boring and obvious approach but it also seems the most direct. Also found this quote interesting > Might have to make it illegal to evolve AI strains or an upper bound of computation per person and closely track all computational resources on earth.

I think the main problem with the brain simulation approach is that we don't yet have a really good model of how the brain actually works.

Re: Where will artificial general intelligence come from?

#12

Post by visarga »

Will_Do wrote: post #7

That was really interesting. I'm interested why he's so pessimistic about the simulating a brain approach. Yes it's the boring and obvious approach but it also seems the most direct. Also found this quote interesting > Might have to make it illegal to evolve AI strains or an upper bound of computation per person and closely track all computational resources on earth.

The brain is slow and redundant. It has to be like that because it is not produced in a factory - it is created by self replication. Self replication imposes strict limits and requirements on the type of brain that can be created. AI neurons, on the other hand, are perfect - they never get old or tired and always remember. A neural net like ResNet-150 is capable of doing essentially what 1/3 of the brain is doing (vision). We can achieve superhuman results in vision with much less neurons, and faster. This is the kind of logic that makes brain emulation a far flung possibility compared to the current day deep neural nets.

That and the fact that the brain simulation guys don't have anything to show for. There are no human-level tasks that could be replicated by this approach yet.

Re: Where will artificial general intelligence come from?

#13

Post by mrfusion »

klochner wrote: post #6
wonderwonder wrote: post #3

I think a very interesting aspect of general AI is that while an incredibly complex technology, it is not unrealistic that it could be created for the first time in someone's home office. Unlike many other earth changing technologies there is nothing that a massive corporation has that a home tinkerer does not (besides the obvious of money and many engineers). With the rise of cloud computing and open source; everyth…

[X] Open Source Tools [ ] Massive Data Sets [ ] $Millions in Computing Resources I'd put it roughly on par with finding a general cure for cancer. While unlikely, quite amazing that the cure for one of the largest causes of death could be solved 3 doors down with lab supplies from amazon and a handful of mice.

Well the data sets are all around your house and yard. Think of baby human agi's.

And the computing costs could be boot strapped by the ai. Put it to work earning its keep and expanding resources.

Re: Where will artificial general intelligence come from?

#14

Post by tim333 »

Will_Do wrote: post #7

That was really interesting. I'm interested why he's so pessimistic about the simulating a brain approach. Yes it's the boring and obvious approach but it also seems the most direct. Also found this quote interesting > Might have to make it illegal to evolve AI strains or an upper bound of computation per person and closely track all computational resources on earth.

The problem with the brain simulation approach seems not that it's boring and obvious but that it's hard to do. They struggle to simulate C. elegans which has 302 neurons in a fixed layout. Humans are harder.

>[OpenWorm] project coordinator Stephen Larson estimates it as "only 20 to 30 percent of the way towards where we need to get. (wikipedia)

That said, figuring what we can about how the human brain works and trying to make a computer equivalent seems quite promising. For example modern artificial vision seems to process data in a way similar to human vision even if it doesn't simulate human neurons.

Re: Where will artificial general intelligence come from?

#16

Post by wyager »

Will_Do wrote: post #7

That was really interesting. I'm interested why he's so pessimistic about the simulating a brain approach. Yes it's the boring and obvious approach but it also seems the most direct. Also found this quote interesting > Might have to make it illegal to evolve AI strains or an upper bound of computation per person and closely track all computational resources on earth.

Oh boy. Legislating government control of all computational resources is not a path we want to go down. Read Vernor Vinge's "Rainbows End" for some fun ideas on how this screws everyone over. Watch Cory Doctorow's talk about the war on general-purpose computing for some more immediate concerns.

I wonder if nebulous fears about AI soon will be added to the ranks of famous justifications for horrendously overbearing laws, like stopping terrorism, the war on drugs, or thinking of the children.

Re: Where will artificial general intelligence come from?

#17

Post by grwthckrmstr »

visarga wrote: post #9
exratione wrote: post #5

I feel that those who argue that any approach other than running human brain emulations and then reverse engineering them or speculatively modifying them is the most likely way to get to AGI has a pretty steep hill to climb in order to justify that point of view. Nothing else that is going on now or even on the agenda or even foreseeable offers a plausible, definitive plan to get to AGI. Whereas brain emulation is cl…

I disagree. It's too expensive to run a low level brain sim. In the meantime deep learning based AI achieved superhuman or close to human results in many tasks, such as image recognition, voice recognition, translation, car driving and Go. The AGI will be a reinforcement learning agent, as it will need to be able to perceive and act in the physical world. Thus the path to AGI is the path of RL. The most essential pie…

"I disagree. It's too expensive to run a low level brain sim."

Interesting. Could you tell me Why is it too expensive?

If it wasn't expensive, would that change things drastically, and make brain sim a viable option?

Re: Where will artificial general intelligence come from?

#18

Post by visarga »

wyager wrote: post #16
Will_Do wrote: post #7

That was really interesting. I'm interested why he's so pessimistic about the simulating a brain approach. Yes it's the boring and obvious approach but it also seems the most direct. Also found this quote interesting > Might have to make it illegal to evolve AI strains or an upper bound of computation per person and closely track all computational resources on earth.

Oh boy. Legislating government control of all computational resources is not a path we want to go down. Read Vernor Vinge's "Rainbows End" for some fun ideas on how this screws everyone over. Watch Cory Doctorow's talk about the war on general-purpose computing for some more immediate concerns. I wonder if nebulous fears about AI soon will be added to the ranks of famous justifications for horrendously overbearing la…

I think you might be right. AI fear will probably be made into a justification for government power grabs.

Re: Where will artificial general intelligence come from?

#19

Post by kowdermeister »

Will_Do wrote: post #7

That was really interesting. I'm interested why he's so pessimistic about the simulating a brain approach. Yes it's the boring and obvious approach but it also seems the most direct. Also found this quote interesting > Might have to make it illegal to evolve AI strains or an upper bound of computation per person and closely track all computational resources on earth.

> I'm interested why he's so pessimistic about the simulating a brain approach.

While theoretically possible, I think going with that approach would be admitting we don't understand the origin of general intelligence, so let's just copy the wetvare.

Re: Where will artificial general intelligence come from?

#20

Post by shagie »

visarga wrote: post #8
indifferentalex wrote: post #2

Not on their radar, or their slides at least: Natural Language Processing based rule-based brute-force artificial intelligence (that could be augmented through sensors/motors that allow interaction with the external world). A Vulcan-like (Star Trek) AI, what do you think? Might be easier to simulate the entire brain, on the other hand it might be doable and bridge the gap to general AI.

It's called the self driving car - an AI that interacts with the world. It will be a launching pad to other AI agents.

At a more general level, you may find the book Society of the Mind interesting ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_of_Mind ). In this, Minsky proposes simple (mindless) agents that then are combined together to form a mind. That our mind is interacting with the world and launching agents to deal with things - that our own mind may be built this way.

Yes, its a bit old (1986) and the current machine learning techniques have dated it - what was theory at one time is reality in places. Still a good book to read and think about.

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