Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy • Hacker News Board

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#31

Post by xienze » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 1:57 PM UTC

appearsonline wrote: post #26

xienze wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and no mention if this would affect welfare and other social programs. Which is quite surprising because every, and I mean every, UBI proposal talks up how much money we'd _save_ because welfare would be eliminated. I just don't see how that's possible, because inevitably there are going to be a lot of people with real or self-imposed crises crying about how they don't have enough money to pay rent or buy food, and…

One wonders which humans you surround yourself with to consider that "basic human behavior".

Trying to maximize earnings is basic human behavior, sorry to break it to you. Welfare scams occur regularly, and that's before UBI.

And you're dodging the bigger question: I'm on UBI and my money runs out, can't afford to feed the kids. Multiply that by at least several thousand people every month. Now what?

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#32

Post by IanCal » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 1:58 PM UTC

xienze wrote: post #18

snarf21 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, and no mention if this would affect welfare and other social programs. So if someone still gets all the aid they do today and $1K per month, then there is more money to spend but are there more people who want to work where that money is spent? I think it likely that this would cause low end job wages to rise, not necessarily increase employment.

> and no mention if this would affect welfare and other social programs. Which is quite surprising because every, and I mean every, UBI proposal talks up how much money we'd _save_ because welfare would be eliminated. I just don't see how that's possible, because inevitably there are going to be a lot of people with real or self-imposed crises crying about how they don't have enough money to pay rent or buy food, and…

> I just don't see how that's possible, because inevitably there are going to be a lot of people with real or self-imposed crises crying about how they don't have enough money to pay rent or buy food, and what is the government going to do, tell them "tough shit, you should've managed your UBI better"?

In the UK, many welfare payments go directly to the person, so this wouldn't be a new issue.

Many of them are designed really just to ensure a floor people don't drop below, but combined with exceptionally high marginal tax rates and odd conditions. The marginal tax rate in many cases is 100%, and can be above this.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#33

Post by mseebach » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 2:00 PM UTC

norea-armozel wrote: post #23

norea-armozel wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, more likely the rich would just self-fund fascist paramilitaries to keep "the poors" in line like they've always done.

It's weird how my comment really struck the nerve that it did since it's partly in jest. But I will say this much, historically the rich have always favored military solutions rather than economic (or social) ones in dealing with class warfare. If the rich of today want to take a page out of history, they should be more like Otto von Bismarck and pay off the poor and disenfranchised. Meaning that some kind of reforme…

It has nothing to do with nerves being struck and everything to do with your 150 year out of date social analysis being so absurd that it's not even wrong.

By the way, the lower class is striking back, but it looks more like a fake tan and a combover than the image of St. Petersburg in 1917 you seem to lust for.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#34

Post by snarf21 » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 2:02 PM UTC

jerkstate wrote: post #19

rbanffy wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or no, since the person will already be receiving enough to live.

Well, the price of goods and services will go up because everybody suddenly has more money and the owners of the businesses that sell those goods and services have just had their taxes doubled, so we're back to square one anyways.

I worry about this too. Who cares if you have more money if it has less buying power per dollar? This is also why I worry about drastically higher minimum wage. Poor people have more money but all the places they spend it have higher costs that lead to higher prices. Rich people don't spend the majority of their money at Wal-Mart so it affects them less. EITC and other tax reductions on the poor seems more effective and doesn't reduce buying power.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#35

Post by lightbyte » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 2:06 PM UTC

mseebach wrote: post #33

norea-armozel wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's weird how my comment really struck the nerve that it did since it's partly in jest. But I will say this much, historically the rich have always favored military solutions rather than economic (or social) ones in dealing with class warfare. If the rich of today want to take a page out of history, they should be more like Otto von Bismarck and pay off the poor and disenfranchised. Meaning that some kind of reforme…

It has nothing to do with nerves being struck and everything to do with your 150 year out of date social analysis being so absurd that it's not even wrong. By the way, the lower class is striking back, but it looks more like a fake tan and a combover than the image of St. Petersburg in 1917 you seem to lust for.

>By the way, the lower class is striking back, but it looks more like a fake tan and a combover than the image of St. Petersburg in 1917 you seem to lust for.

Are you implying the lower class is "striking back" by electing a NYC real estate billionaire as president? Who are you thinking they are striking against, themselves?

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#36

Post by xienze » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 2:06 PM UTC

IanCal wrote: post #32

xienze wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and no mention if this would affect welfare and other social programs. Which is quite surprising because every, and I mean every, UBI proposal talks up how much money we'd _save_ because welfare would be eliminated. I just don't see how that's possible, because inevitably there are going to be a lot of people with real or self-imposed crises crying about how they don't have enough money to pay rent or buy food, and…

> I just don't see how that's possible, because inevitably there are going to be a lot of people with real or self-imposed crises crying about how they don't have enough money to pay rent or buy food, and what is the government going to do, tell them "tough shit, you should've managed your UBI better"? In the UK, many welfare payments go directly to the person, so this wouldn't be a new issue. Many of them are design…

> In the UK, many welfare payments go directly to the person, so this wouldn't be a new issue.

Not sure what you mean by this. The issue is that currently welfare payments are earmarked: this money can only be used for rent, this money can only be used for food, etc. By eliminating our existing welfare programs, as is the case with every UBI proposal, we would instead be giving a single check and saying "manage this money wisely and pay your expenses." The problem is that when the money isn't earmarked for a specific purpose you can't be sure that the basic necessities are actually paid for before the money runs out. Just ignoring the fraud angle (spend all the money and claim an emergency makes you unable to pay for rent), how do you deal with someone having a _real_ emergency, having to spend all their UBI, and then being unable to pay for rent? Tell them tough shit? That's not what's going to happen.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#37

Post by phkahler » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 2:06 PM UTC

Another missing element in the model: People who need it most are renting. You hand everyone $1000 per month and I guarantee there will be a large uptick in rents. This will short circuit economic activity and just push the money straight to those who own rental property, thereby increasing the wealth gap while raising the cost of living. I won't all go into this effect, but certainly a lot of it will.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#38

Post by garrettdc » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 2:07 PM UTC

gaius wrote: post #25

garrettdc wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are constantly told that 7.25/hr isn't enough to live on, but people find a way to do so at the moment. 7.25 $/hr * 2000 hrs/year = 14500 which isn't far off from 12000. If the choice was between working for that and not working, I think the choice is easy. Unless this program were to completely eliminate welfare spending, then you'd likely end up with people choosing not to work because they don't need to. This o…

A small percentage of the workforce is actually paid minimum wage and most get a better job once they have had the entry level experience. The idea that minimum wage should sustain an entire working life is a fringe one.

Considering that much of the democratic presidential platform this previous election cycle, I would have to disagree with the assertion that this view is a "fringe one."

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#39

Post by mmcconnell1618 » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 2:07 PM UTC

jerkstate wrote: post #19

rbanffy wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or no, since the person will already be receiving enough to live.

Well, the price of goods and services will go up because everybody suddenly has more money and the owners of the businesses that sell those goods and services have just had their taxes doubled, so we're back to square one anyways.

Increased demand for some goods will create competition and prices will stay the same or fall. Commodity goods providers don't have pricing power so they can't raise prices without losing sales to competitors. There is also the "menu cost" which is the resistance of businesses to react in real time to economic events. A restaurant won't reprint menus everyday and the $1.99 cleaner won't change prices very often.

In addition. The total money supply isn't growing, it is being redistributed to people more likely to consume. The velocity of money will increase but the total amount won't. This will keep prices relatively stable.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#40

Post by jrs95 » Thu, Aug 31, 2017, 2:08 PM UTC

mseebach wrote: post #20

> They find that enacting any of these policies by growing the federal debt — that is, without raising taxes to pay for it — would substantially grow the economy. The effect fades away within eight years, but GDP is left permanently higher. The big, $12,000 per year per adult policy, they find, would permanently grow the economy by 12.56 to 13.10 percent — or about $2.5 trillion come 2025. It would also, they find, i…

What else are they going to do with the money but invest it? Even if they let it sit in a relatively conservative investment, a bank is still probably going to be investing their money. In my opinion, the more important impact of higher taxes on investors is what that does to the total pool of investment money over time, since they are likely to reinvest a lot of their earnings. But that is also the exact thing a progressive tax system is meant to do -- shrink their wealth and redistribute it to others.