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Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

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Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#21

Post by garrettdc »

tnzn wrote: post #12
chimeracoder wrote: post #5

A couple of things right off the bat. This study assumes that: - There is zero effect on propensity to work - The national debt has no secondary effects on the economy - Changes in taxation do not affect consumption or investment behavior, at any tax level. Those first two right there are incredibly massive assumptions, and they amount to two of the biggest criticisms of these proposals in the first place. And the th…

You believe 12k a year basic income will make people work less ?

We are constantly told that 7.25/hr isn't enough to live on, but people find a way to do so at the moment. 7.25 $/hr * 2000 hrs/year = 14500 which isn't far off from 12000. If the choice was between working for that and not working, I think the choice is easy.

Unless this program were to completely eliminate welfare spending, then you'd likely end up with people choosing not to work because they don't need to. This of course assumes that purchasing power doesn't change with the massive influx of cash into the economy.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#22

Post by xienze »

tnzn wrote: post #12
chimeracoder wrote: post #5

A couple of things right off the bat. This study assumes that: - There is zero effect on propensity to work - The national debt has no secondary effects on the economy - Changes in taxation do not affect consumption or investment behavior, at any tax level. Those first two right there are incredibly massive assumptions, and they amount to two of the biggest criticisms of these proposals in the first place. And the th…

You believe 12k a year basic income will make people work less ?

If you think it's gonna stay at 12K you're dreaming. This is literally the most direct way for politicians to buy votes.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#23

Post by norea-armozel »

norea-armozel wrote: post #3
hacker_9 wrote: post #2

"But a $12,000 a year per adult basic income is another matter. The Roosevelt paper finds that paying for it would require increasing household tax revenue by 120 percent — a more than doubling. To do that, it assumes that all but the poorest 40 percent pay more in taxes. The middle quintile (households with an income between $48,300 and $85,600, per the Tax Policy Center) would see their average tax rate go from 14…

Yeah, more likely the rich would just self-fund fascist paramilitaries to keep "the poors" in line like they've always done.

It's weird how my comment really struck the nerve that it did since it's partly in jest. But I will say this much, historically the rich have always favored military solutions rather than economic (or social) ones in dealing with class warfare. If the rich of today want to take a page out of history, they should be more like Otto von Bismarck and pay off the poor and disenfranchised. Meaning that some kind of reformed and expansive welfare state is something that's needed more than Uberizing every facet of life (the most recent one that's really annoyed me is the monetization of game mods by Bethesda; it's a hobby, not a job.). Whether or not that includes basic income remains to be seen, but the fact is all the opposition to any kind of welfare under capitalism will doom capitalism to be overthrown more violently than it had been in the early 20th century by communists.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#24

Post by hyperpape »

hacker_9 wrote: post #2

"But a $12,000 a year per adult basic income is another matter. The Roosevelt paper finds that paying for it would require increasing household tax revenue by 120 percent — a more than doubling. To do that, it assumes that all but the poorest 40 percent pay more in taxes. The middle quintile (households with an income between $48,300 and $85,600, per the Tax Policy Center) would see their average tax rate go from 14…

85,600 * (.25 - .14) = a $9416 tax increase, which is less than the $12,000 per year for a single adult, so the top of the middle quintile would net slightly more money after taxes and transfers (way more for two person households).

Am I misreading this? (It does seem a little too good to be true).

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#25

Post by gaius »

garrettdc wrote: post #21
tnzn wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You believe 12k a year basic income will make people work less ?

We are constantly told that 7.25/hr isn't enough to live on, but people find a way to do so at the moment. 7.25 $/hr * 2000 hrs/year = 14500 which isn't far off from 12000. If the choice was between working for that and not working, I think the choice is easy. Unless this program were to completely eliminate welfare spending, then you'd likely end up with people choosing not to work because they don't need to. This o…

A small percentage of the workforce is actually paid minimum wage and most get a better job once they have had the entry level experience. The idea that minimum wage should sustain an entire working life is a fringe one.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#26

Post by appearsonline »

xienze wrote: post #18
snarf21 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, and no mention if this would affect welfare and other social programs. So if someone still gets all the aid they do today and $1K per month, then there is more money to spend but are there more people who want to work where that money is spent? I think it likely that this would cause low end job wages to rise, not necessarily increase employment.

> and no mention if this would affect welfare and other social programs. Which is quite surprising because every, and I mean every, UBI proposal talks up how much money we'd _save_ because welfare would be eliminated. I just don't see how that's possible, because inevitably there are going to be a lot of people with real or self-imposed crises crying about how they don't have enough money to pay rent or buy food, and…

One wonders which humans you surround yourself with to consider that "basic human behavior".

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#27

Post by notahacker »

rbanffy wrote: post #17
snarf21 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, and no mention if this would affect welfare and other social programs. So if someone still gets all the aid they do today and $1K per month, then there is more money to spend but are there more people who want to work where that money is spent? I think it likely that this would cause low end job wages to rise, not necessarily increase employment.

Most proposals do away with welfare programs, reducing enforcement costs with it. No need to ensure a person is unemployed and looking for a job or unable to work due to a medical condition.

Sure, but the cost of enforcing who receives benefits is orders of magnitude less than the cost of paying $12k net of income taxes to the large number of working age people who for whatever reason (usually existing wealth or partner/parent income) aren't currently interested in working.

This isn't just common sense; the data on working age economically inactive people, working age economically inactive people receiving benefits and admin costs is free and open for most countries.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#28

Post by ubernostrum »

garrettdc wrote: post #21
tnzn wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You believe 12k a year basic income will make people work less ?

We are constantly told that 7.25/hr isn't enough to live on, but people find a way to do so at the moment. 7.25 $/hr * 2000 hrs/year = 14500 which isn't far off from 12000. If the choice was between working for that and not working, I think the choice is easy. Unless this program were to completely eliminate welfare spending, then you'd likely end up with people choosing not to work because they don't need to. This o…

If you want to eliminate the possibility of people who don't need to work choosing not to work, you should be in favor of a 100% estate tax before you should be against UBI. Make it impossible for children to inherit enough wealth to live without working, and get those lazy parasites into the workforce where they belong!

(or you could look at what happens when people are actually presented with realistic options for escaping the cycle of minimum-wage poverty, but that's a few steps of consciousness-raising away from where you currently are)

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#29

Post by norea-armozel »

chimeracoder wrote: post #5

A couple of things right off the bat. This study assumes that: - There is zero effect on propensity to work - The national debt has no secondary effects on the economy - Changes in taxation do not affect consumption or investment behavior, at any tax level. Those first two right there are incredibly massive assumptions, and they amount to two of the biggest criticisms of these proposals in the first place. And the th…

The propensity to work is more of a social matter than an economic one. Also, most people today in the lower economic classes are over worked. I remember when I was working out of a temp agency with someone who had been working three jobs (two full time and one side job). I'm not sure the exact reason for this other than he had a child and his wife was also working part time herself. It's just scary to imagine that people think working is a virtue onto itself. I'd rather pay a marginally higher tax rate to make sure people don't work more than 40 hours a week and were able to get their basic needs (housing, food, healthcare). At least then there wouldn't be the chronic issues that poverty brings to drag down the economy as a whole.

Re: Study: A universal basic income would grow the economy

#30

Post by 0xfeba »

xienze wrote: post #18
snarf21 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, and no mention if this would affect welfare and other social programs. So if someone still gets all the aid they do today and $1K per month, then there is more money to spend but are there more people who want to work where that money is spent? I think it likely that this would cause low end job wages to rise, not necessarily increase employment.

> and no mention if this would affect welfare and other social programs. Which is quite surprising because every, and I mean every, UBI proposal talks up how much money we'd _save_ because welfare would be eliminated. I just don't see how that's possible, because inevitably there are going to be a lot of people with real or self-imposed crises crying about how they don't have enough money to pay rent or buy food, and…

And the right's fantasy? Everyone has a right to a gun, but we can't trust them with money.
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