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Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

lcamtuf.coredump.cx

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Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#131

Post by afterburner »

saryant wrote: post #19

I've been in a number of major natural disasters at this point. Fukushima, Ike, Colorado's 2013 floods. I've also been in two shooting incidents (where fortunately only the shooter was hurt). My point is, I've been lucky so far because none of these posed a major problem for me. I made it out with manageable inconvenience. However, I can only get lucky like that so many times. So now I keep the following at home: * 5…

"I've been lucky so far"

I'd say you were UNlucky so far to have been involved in all of those incidents in the first place. Or was it not by accident?

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#132

Post by jfdi »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #56

The major thing overlooked here is mindset. After 14 years in the military and experience with several armed conflicts and humanitarian disasters, I have seen that pretty much all your plans and preparation will go out the window, so you need to learn to move adapt and improvise. If you're going to survive any contingency scenario you need to be resilient, excruciatingly innovative and mentally tough. Think more like…

> The most successful trait I've seen in survivors it's to know when to stay put and when to move.

@andrewkemendo, can you say more about this? Is there a framework for making that decision based on situation on the ground, etc?

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#133

Post by pjc50 »

f- wrote: post #74
dmix wrote: post #31

> It's not that life-altering disasters are rare: every year we hear about millions of people displaced by wildfires, earthquakes, hurricanes, or floods. Pretty much always in the sames typical places though... See: 'tornado alley', island nations with tsunami seasons, california wildfires, etc, etc (over a long enough timespan)... > Heck, not a decade goes by without at least one first-class democracy lapsing into a…

[Author here] > [...natural disasters...] Pretty much always in the sames typical places though... Most people live in "typical places" without realizing it, though. I mean, you know when you're in the tornado valley, but tornado / hurricane risk is relatively high for basically the entire eastern half of the US. And wildfire risk is very significant for the entire western half. Add to this earthquakes, etc, and it t…

Greece certainly has a history of political instability ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_military_junta_of_1967%E... ) but Iceland was a straightforward economic crisis - Kaupthing discovered how profitable leverage was and just kept going because there was nobody to tell them to stop, until the whole thing blew up. I don't remember hearing this translate into political instability, I think Iceland is too small a country for that.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#134

Post by et-al »

yourapostasy wrote: post #10
thomas_howland wrote: post #4

A 10 AM Bay Area earthquake is the highest plausibility * severity event you're likely to experience around here on a day to day basis - leaving some people with a 25 mile commute back to a structure that might or might not be standing, intermittent at best communications, and potentially impassible roads. IMO if you don't have a case of water, a road map, and a change of walking-around clothes in your car around her…

The great part about preparedness planning is there is a kind of vaccination herd immunity effect at play. The more people who take minimal measures like you list, the less intensive efforts preparedness-minded have to invest into. To your example, if 90%+ drivers keep a flat of bottled water, then it makes sense to only keep a water filter at one's home instead of one in the car for long trips and one at home. Howev…

That's one of the ideas of Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT / NERT).

During the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, citizens banded together and helped each other other because emergency services were overwhelmed. Afterwards, they reached out to the fire department to ask for formal training and thus NERT (Neighborhood Emergency Response Team) was born.

When the next big earthquake hits California, we still won't be ready. However if neighbors pitch in and can put out small fires and shut off gas leaks before they turn into anything more serious, then that's one less neighborhood the fire department has on their to-do list.

I highly recommend anyone in earthquake country to take a NERT/CERT class to help out their neighborhood.

NERT: http://sf-fire.org/neighborhood-emergency-response-team-nert

CERT: https://www.ready.gov/community-emergency-response-team

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#135

Post by nebabyte »

Waterluvian wrote: post #17
thomas_howland wrote: post #4

A 10 AM Bay Area earthquake is the highest plausibility * severity event you're likely to experience around here on a day to day basis - leaving some people with a 25 mile commute back to a structure that might or might not be standing, intermittent at best communications, and potentially impassible roads. IMO if you don't have a case of water, a road map, and a change of walking-around clothes in your car around her…

Your comment got me thinking about some form of volunteer force of medics. Imagine if every 20th car that drove by had a government issued medical bag in the trunk and a driver guaranteed to have recent first aid and emergency training. And in return the driver gets some sort of tax break, or an HOV lane free pass, or whatever the appropriate incentive is. Surely some country has tried this out.

> Surely some country has tried this out.

Most first-world countries are not obsessed with self-elevation and interest resulting from their own infrastructure breaking down

Third-world countries might be more the incubator you're hoping for but they generally don't care what happens to the non wealthy (and the wealthy's FO plans there as with everywhere don't involve looting cars on interstates)

So if I were to guess, I'd go with no, no "other countries have tried this out".

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#136

Post by hobofan »

throwanem wrote: post #112
jorazzle wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Elon just said AI is a bigger threat than North Korea.

Elon says a lot of things!

I don't think you can count that in the "many things he says" category, with how consistent and insistent he is with those statements over quite some time now.

That being said, I'm personally not sure if one should put too much weight on his opinions regarding that matter.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#137

Post by nebabyte »

dankohn1 wrote: post #12

I love this sentence from the piece: "In the 90s, it seemed that you couldn't go wrong by getting into professional journalism, opening a video rental store or an arcade, or selling calculators, encyclopedias, disposable cameras, answering machines, and audio CDs."

I mean it's not like all of those people died

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#138

Post by computator »

It's great to see HTTPS being adopted everywhere: even a Polish guy's personal blog on a Christmas Island (.cx) domain is encrypted. That's what I thought until I realized that I was looking at the favicon. He's not using HTTPS. He's using a lock symbol as his favicon and that alone was enough to throw me off.

The browser vendors keep gratuitously changing the shape, color, and position of the lock icon, so a lock symbol anywhere in the browser edges is enough to fool most of us.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#139

Post by fweespeech »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #118
ChuckMcM wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a middle ground? My kids went as part of a team to help people rebuild after Katrina and one of the folks they met was rebuilding their house but building it as a boat. They had re-done the foundation so that the house rested on it, and its sewer connection was just the house pipe inset into the city pipe (so it could easily lift out). That, 15' of chain to allow the house to float above the foundation and c…

There certainly is a middle ground - however why stay in the same place and expect a different future? New Orleans isn't that much more prepared for another flood. Houston re-did the entire bayou system about 5 years ago and yet here we are. People's aversion to moving, especially after a major disaster, boggles my mind.

> People's aversion to moving, especially after a major disaster, boggles my mind.

Social connections, networks that enable employment, and a lack of serious financial reserves (which will always be true for ~50% of people) are the main reasons.

And no area is immune to disaster and lacks challenges.

The "low natural disaster" areas have a total lack of warning before disaster strikes, heavy snowfall that can cripple normal services, deserts with poisonous creatures, or some combination of those three.

For the most part, to be perfectly honest, as long as you are capable of picking up and moving on short notice...hurricane country is actually safer due to the amount of warning you get.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#140

Post by nebabyte »

the_prepared wrote: post #64
rubatuga wrote: post #60

Been looking into getting a pocket knife/ multitool, any good options?

Are you thinking more self defense or utility? Makes a big difference. For example, we love folding Karambits for self defense everyday carry.

What've you got for everyday self defense
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