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Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers

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271–280 of 399 posts

Re: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the computer safely drives itself 99% of the time but in that 1% when the human needs to take control, the human fucks up, the occupants of the vehicle are still dead. And what people are saying here is that L2 automation increases the risk that the human will fuck up in that 1%, by decreasing their situational awareness in the remainder of time. Humans regularly mess up in supposedly-safe scenarios. Consider a…

> making the majority of travel safe in exchange for making edge cases more deadly to untrained drivers has a simple solution: a higher bar for licensing human drivers. You are still misunderstanding the concern. The problem is not poorly trained drivers. The problem is that humans become less attentive after an extended period of problem-free automated operation. I hear you trying to make a Trolley Problem argument,…

> You are still misunderstanding the concern. The problem is not poorly trained drivers. The problem is that humans become less attentive after an extended period of problem-free automated operation.

I understand the concern. I am saying the problem of slow return from periods of extended inattention is not significant in comparison to general human ineptitude.

Level 2 systems may rely on "humans serving as a reliable backup," but they won't always need their humans at a moment's notice. Being able to predict failure modes and (a) give ample warning before handing over control, (b) take default action, e.g. pulling over, and/or (c) refusing to drive when those conditions are likely all emerge as possible solutions.

In any case, I'm arguing that the predictable problem of inattention is outweighed by the stupid mistakes Level 2 autopilots will avoid 99% of the time. Yes, from time to time Level 2 autopilots will abruptly hand control over to an inattentive human who runs off a cliff. But that balances against all the accidents humans regularly get themselves into in situations a Level 2 system would handle with ease. It isn't a trolley problem, it's trading a big problem for a small one.

Re: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans also learn how to drive using several orders of magnitude less training data than self-driving car efforts are using. Do you think that means we should strip down the training data sets to human-equivalent levels? People and machines behave and understand the world differently. Just because it works for people doesn't mean it'll work for computers.

How on earth do you reach that conclusion? Every person has at least 16 years of high bandwidth sensor data experience before getting behind a wheel, plus millions of years of evolutionary training built into the structure of their brain. A vast amount of data has produced every driver.

Data specific to driving is still quite limited for people, even when counting all that passenger time in childhood. The average driver in the US drives maybe 10-15k miles a year, so optimistically a person may have 200-250k passenger miles before driving? Consider that Waymo's cars drove 3 million real world miles in 2016 alone, and 25 billion virtual miles in a simulation, and all those miles are potentially used in a model shared by all the cars.

Now if you want to just look "total experience in the world as a whole" the numbers look a bit different, but if anything that just accentuates the differences here. We don't currently have a way to teach computers to construct mental models of how the world works the same way humans think about it, which would be necessary to use training data that was about the world as a whole.

Re: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers

#273
post #108
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Requiring the driver to be awake and alert while not requiring them to actually do anything for long stretches of time is a recipe for disaster. Everybody who's looked at this seriously agrees. The aviation industry has looked hard at that issue for a long time. Watch "Children of the Magenta".[1] This is a chief pilot of American Airlines talking to pilots about automation dependency in 1997. Watch this if you have…

This is a well-researched area, in addition to being pretty obvious to everyone. Personally, I stopped using cruise control years ago. If I have to pay attention, I'm better off driving. This isn't just a matter for Tesla. The auto industry is rapidly heading for much better assistive driving systems. There's no way that the people heads-down in their cell phones are going to do this less once they realize they don't…

I drive with cruise control extensively. I tweak the speed with the up/down buttons as needed to compensate for passing or being passed. Thumb is ever ready on the cancel button which smoothly initiates coasting.

This way my foot can readily cover the break pedal and I initiate breaking much quicker than off-gas>on-break

Re: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers

#274
post #6

> In May 2015, Eric Meadows, then a Tesla engineer, engaged Autopilot on a drive in a Model S from San Francisco to Los Angeles. Cruising along Highway 1, the car jerked left toward oncoming traffic. He yelped and steered back on course, according to his account and a video of the incident. Is this video online?

If this is May 2015, this is prior to the system in question (HW2 or AP2) even existing in prototypical forms.

The previous system (HW1 or AP1) is a MobileEye chip, which is found in most other cars that also have "lane keeping" features. They all use the same chip with the same model provided by MobileEye, and can choose to overlay features on top of it or augment the system with other sensors (such as radar on the Model S/X). For that system, it is essentially the same performance whether it's a $150k Tesla or $30k Honda.

Re: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not true at all. Tesla's do not use the car in front to switch lanes.

It depends on what mode you set it to, but under some circumstances, it does.

No, it does not use the car in front of you to switch lanes.

Re: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers

#277
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a well-researched area, in addition to being pretty obvious to everyone. Personally, I stopped using cruise control years ago. If I have to pay attention, I'm better off driving. This isn't just a matter for Tesla. The auto industry is rapidly heading for much better assistive driving systems. There's no way that the people heads-down in their cell phones are going to do this less once they realize they don't…

There was a cruise control ish system I heard about on a car (a Mercedes, iirc) in Germany when I was a kid: instead of a target speed, you set a maximum speed, such that pressing normally down on the gas allowed the car to accelerate up to that speed. It trims down the excess gas to avoid exceeding the maximum speed. If you released the gas, the car would coast; and if you pushed the pedal down close to the floor (i…

This is called a speed limiter and I LOVE it in my Mercedes. I set the limiter to match the road's speed limit and I can just drive without worrying that I'll get caught speeding. No need to constantly look down at the speedo.

Re: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers

#278
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even worse: I've been on several mountain roads with stretches of one-way traffic, where either an officer has to signal a switch in lane direction every few minutes (which might not be clear otherwise, especially around a bend), or cars have to occasionally reverse to let opposing traffic through . Don't think I'll ever be letting an AI do that!

I think you can argue that at least those are outlier very rural sorts of places. It's harder to write off major US cities. (To be clear, interstates are still compelling uses but they're not universal self-driving.)

That kind of thing happens occasionally around Boston when snow piles turn two lane streets into one lane, and it's common anywhere where construction or an accident partly blocks a road.

Re: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how you'd draw that conclusion. It seems possible to have a workable, purely optical solution. Our workable solution today relies purely on optical (human drivers).

Cameras don't have the same dynamic range of the human eye. A more fair test would be giving someone remote control of a Tesla with only access to the video footage. I think cameras will hit parity with the human eye, but the question is will it happen before or after Lidar becomes more affordable and compact.

Couldn't you just have multiple cameras of different sensitivity? Cameras are pretty cheap.

Re: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers

#280
post #8

The level-2 driving that Tesla is pushing seems like a worst case scenario to me. Requiring the driver to be awake and alert while not requiring them to actually do anything for long stretches of time is a recipe for disaster. Neither the driver nor the car manufacturer will have clear responsibility when there is an accident. The driver will blame the system for failing and the manufacturer will blame the driver for…

> The level-2 driving that Tesla is pushing seems like a worst case scenario to me What are you measuring? The current autopilot already appears to be materially safer, in certain circumstances, than human drivers [1]. It seems probable Level 2 systems will be better still. A refrain I hear, and used to believe, is that machine accidents will cause public uproar in a way human-mediated accidents don't. Yet Tesla's au…

"What are you measuring? The current autopilot already appears to be materially safer, in certain circumstances, than human drivers [1]. It seems probable Level 2 systems will be better still."

As far as I know it is indeed correct that autopilot safety is statistically higher than manual driving safety (albeit with a small sample size).

However, something has always bothered me about that comparison ...

Is it fair to compare a manually driven accidental death (like ice, or wildlife collision) with an autopilot death that involves a trivial driving scenario that any human would have no trouble with ?

I don't know the answer - I'm torn.

Somehow those seem like apples and oranges, though ... as if dying in a mundane (but computer-confusing) situation is somehow inexcusable in a way that an "actual accident" is not.

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