A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating • Hacker News Board

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#351

Post by woodandsteel » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 8:31 PM UTC

chc wrote: post #181

woodandsteel wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The Bolt outsold both of Tesla's vehicles last month. The article says GM sold only 7,592 Bolts in the first six months of this year. Tesla sold way more, and it makes a much higher profit per vehicle. I don't know why Bolt sales are so low. When it came out the reviews were all very positive, and they said it would be strong competition for the Tesla Model 3. But the Tesla already has several hundred thousand pre-o…

The Bolt wasn't even available in most states for the first six months of the year. That would probably account for low sales.

>The Bolt wasn't even available in most states for the first six months of the year.

It's been nearly a year since it was released. If they still can't ramp up production, then the whole project is pretty hopeless.

Besides, the article says they are halting production because it isn't selling.

In any case, are you predicting that in another few months it will be selling tens of thousands a month and finally be a real success? Well, we will see.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#352

Post by r27d » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 9:00 PM UTC

rconti wrote: post #159

r27d wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article neglects to mention Obama's $3 billion dollar Cash for Clunkers program in '08 which hurt used vehicle supply.

Shouldn't that have RAISED use vehicle prices? Or is that your point, that the dropoff would have been even larger without C4C?

Here's a great article. https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/08/31/cash-for-clun...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#353

Post by tempestn » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 9:35 PM UTC

ctack wrote: post #299

tempestn wrote: post #294

Ever since that pg post, I can't help thinking about how much of a role PR plays in stories. Did Black Book and Cargurus just happen to get mentioned here? Or did they reach out to the journalist, or vice-versa? Did they pay for the privilege? (Doubt it, but possible.) Always tough to know, since the best PR is subtle enough that you at least wonder whether it was involved at all.

Please link the pg post.

http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#354

Post by alexanderstears » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 9:35 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #169

askvictor wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A friend who is a materials engineer told me that there aren't enough rare-Earth metals in the world to supply the demand for magnets to replace all of the current petrol based cars with electric cars. No sources unfortunately, but this thing might not scale.

Too bad your materials engineer friend has no idea that the most hyped EV car company, Tesla, doesn't even use rare earths in its motors because they're all induction motors. And you could of course replace the copper with the incredibly plentiful aluminum, which actually has superior conductivity per unit mass to copper. (Copper is nice because it's volumetrically more compact and is easier to make electrical connec…

It depends on the Tesla.

the Model S and X use induction motors. The Model 3 uses a permanent magnet motor:

https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/auto-industry/2017-tesla-mo...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#355

Post by Hasz » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 10:05 PM UTC

maherbeg wrote: post #230

Hasz wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Liquid cancer? C'mon, that's a bit extreme. Getting down to the point, can you imagine the political fallout from crushing the value of a gas car? It's a truck sized political landmine, and no party is willing to touch that thing with a hundred foot stick. Gas still has significant advantages that electric has yet to match. Worst gas has 53x the specific energy of the best Li-ion, and even with a hundred % efficient…

I think you might be a bit off here on the extent to which the average driver will be needing gasoline. Tesla's have less than 10% battery degradation after 8 years so far. What will happen is people will buy an electric car as a second car. They'll get comfortable charging every night and then buy a Chevy volt like car that usually won't need gas but can range extender as needed. A large portion of those users will…

Do you have a source for the Tesla battery degradation?

How many cycles over 8 years?

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#356

Post by S_A_P » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 10:36 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #338

S_A_P wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that it will be as severe. The big banks are largely insulated from this. I do think that it will be a buyers market for late model used cars for cash buyers. I'm already seeing signs of this. It's just not quite there yet but I bet I can get a car at 50% traditional market price soon.

I think the banks as in the car manufacture's finance arms will be hit the most: when it hit they are the ones who are suddenly owners of a car that they owe more on than it is worth. They will have to sell these cars at a loss. If they try to make up for that loss by raising lease rates those who turned their car in will be forced buy a used car at greatly reduced rates (few have the ability to afford much larger pa…

Agreed. All the credit arms of the manufacturers will be hit hard. I didn't mention this in my parent comment but you alluded to another great point. 60+ month loans can mean that those who drive more than 20k miles can use their car up before it's even paid for.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#357

Post by ams6110 » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 10:44 PM UTC

woodandsteel wrote: post #350

ams6110 wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is a status symbol. Chevy is not. The true demand is for the Tesla brand, not the electric vehicle.

Doesn't matter. Teslas are selling, Bolts are not. And the Model 3 is not a status luxury car.

I was responding to "I don't know why Bolt sales are so low"

The reason is that people don't really want electric cars per se, but they do like the idea of owning a Tesla. And yes, the Model 3 is a status car still, because of the Tesla name and relative rarity, even though it's more mainstream in pricing.

If people wanted electic cars, Bolts would be selling better. Chevy sells tons of regular cars.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#358

Post by stephengillie » Thu, Aug 24, 2017, 2:06 AM UTC

billysielu wrote: post #290

glogla wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That $10k could buy me ten trucks. It's kind of hard to drive them at the same time, though.

You could invest that $10k and the profit would yield infinite trucks.

What is the limit of the interest rate as we approach infinite trucks?

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#359

Post by RhodesianHunter » Thu, Aug 24, 2017, 2:07 AM UTC

tmnvix wrote: post #125

RhodesianHunter wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Would love to hear differing opinions :)" Erm... A decrease in demand does not lead to an increase in price.

That's a bit simplistic. Substantial demand makes economies of scale possible which can lead to lower prices. The opposite is also true (i.e. lack of demand leading to increased production costs).

Costs do not drive price. Supply and demand do.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#360

Post by stephengillie » Thu, Aug 24, 2017, 2:14 AM UTC

paddy_m wrote: post #306

mrfusion wrote: post #120

I really found the opposite last month when I was truck shopping. The prices at carmax weren't much lower than buying new. I even found one case where it was cheaper to buy new! I'm wondering if people hate the dealership experience so much they're driving up the price of used cars? I'm still just utterly confused by the used truck prices I was seeing.

Trucks are very expensive if you buy the same silly trucks that everyone has. The four door short bed truck is a gas guzzling inadequate tool. In large trucks, 3/4 ton and up everyone wants to buy an expensive to maintain diesel engine. A lot of fleets are moving back to gas because the economics of diesel don't make sense with the much higher maintenance costs. You can use all of this consumer behavior to your advan…

> The four door short bed truck is a gas guzzling inadequate tool.

Those little truck beds are so cute. They look like a toy truck bed. Can't even put a sheet of plywood in one. Since the cabin is basically an SUV, the truck bed is basically an open-air trunk.