Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

301–310 of 376 posts

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#301

Post by ZeroGravitas »

akhilcacharya wrote: post #253
thebigspacefuck wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In CO you could get a Leaf for $8K with tax credits, at least until the end of June this year. There were tons of brand new ones on eBay going for ~$10K when I checked.

$8k? How? Our local electric utility ran a $10k discount on the new high end models recently and I thought that was a bargain.

San Diego has them at 1/3rd of list price once you take into account state, federal and utility incentives:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-09/bmw-nissa...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#302

Post by ZeroGravitas »

petepete wrote: post #298
beejiu wrote: post #21

In the UK, many cars sold in the past few years are under a so-called Personal Contract Plan (PCP). These are basically sub-prime loans for cars where you lease the car for the difference between its purchase price and its projected depreciated value at the end of the term. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/10/car-loans-p... One of the UK regulators recently warned about the exposure to these loans. "An i…

About 85% of new cars 'sold' in the UK are either PCP or Hired Purchase[0]. Anecdotally, it's really apparent amongst my peers; many are driving new (less than two years old) BMW, Audi and Mercedes that would probably cost a whole years wage or more outright. Luckily, for people like me who buy almost new for cash, this is a good thing. [0] http://uk.businessinsider.com/statistics-uk-bank-exposure-pc...

I've noticed this same thing, but don't quite follow the logic fully.

Like, why don't they just PCP or Hire Purchase a cheaper car. They'd get whatever benefit the PCP provides, and spend less money. What about the PCP convinces them (rightly or wrongly) that they can afford those cars?

There's so many people doing it I feel I must be the one that is wrong, and there's some tax dodge or something they are taking advantage of.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#303

Post by cptskippy »

hunter2_ wrote: post #235
aphextron wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Make sure the battery has at least 8 bars left. There's two gauges on the dash: current charge and battery capacity. Capacity is the skinnier one on the right [0]. If you find one still within the warranty window below 8 bars, Nissan will even replace the battery free [1]. Also make sure you get one with a quick charge port, it's worth every penny. Other than that you really can't go wrong. http://www.plugincars.com/…

Not an owner, but I think those two points work against each other a bit. How much, I'm not sure, but slower charging does preserve capacity. If you have no plans for long trips where you need to charge during a meal, and will always be charging overnight or while at work, batteries that haven't had to deal with faster charging could be better.

You're not wrong however all of the studies and research out there shows the degradation is hundreds or tenths of a percentage point. In other words it's insignificant.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#304

Post by akira2501 »

throwawaybbq1 wrote: post #295
hueving wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It comes with automatic emergency braking, collision avoidance, blind spot detection, adaptive cruise control, and built-in backup camera, standard. Buy a used 2014? It has none of that. Don't run into stuff? Most of that tech is only useful if you are an absent-minded driver and even then it only covers some cases (e.g. emergency braking doesn't help if the car in front of you slammed into something and you were fo…

Don't run into stuff??? You realize it is called an "accident" for a reason. The backup camera and blind spot detection are worth real dollars in my experience.

> backup camera and blind spot detection are worth real dollars

I agree on the camera.. it's been especially useful in more than a few places on my work truck, but I worry that features like BSM go along with a trend of designing more "stylish" interiors that have significantly reduced visibility along certain angles.

The difference between my small Japanese car and my sisters American SUV is amazing. I can physically see everything around my car, in her car, there are huge chunks of surrounding space that are blocked by pillars and other design considerations. If you feel you need BSM, then you may just be driving a horribly designed car.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#305

Post by dsr_ »

samstave wrote: post #168
wbracken wrote: post #109

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run tho…

this and the below comments just show that cars are, in general, ridiculously overpriced. Instead of "universal basic income" - we should have "free cars for every individual" -- Look at how THAT would affect autonomous driverless cars!!!

The incentives there are wildly misplaced.

With UBI, you get money. You can spend it on whatever you need or want.

With "Universal Cars" you get a car. If you already had one, you probably need to sell one or the other. But now everyone has a car, so the resale value crashes to nearly scrap. If you keep it, you need to pay for insurance, maintenance, and actual usage, which may or may not be a net positive.

Let's suppose you don't already have a car. Why not? If you live in a city, you may not have a need for a car. Selling it won't help much. Parking may be impossible or too expensive. Perhaps you cannot drive a car. This car is going to be useless to you.

On the upside, it bolsters the car manufacturing industry. On the other hand, many mechanics will go out of business because it will be cheaper to get a different car than fix the one you have.

On the gripping hand, expect gigantic traffic jams, rising fuel prices, and soaring pollution levels.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#306

Post by paddy_m »

mrfusion wrote: post #120

I really found the opposite last month when I was truck shopping. The prices at carmax weren't much lower than buying new. I even found one case where it was cheaper to buy new! I'm wondering if people hate the dealership experience so much they're driving up the price of used cars? I'm still just utterly confused by the used truck prices I was seeing.

Trucks are very expensive if you buy the same silly trucks that everyone has. The four door short bed truck is a gas guzzling inadequate tool. In large trucks, 3/4 ton and up everyone wants to buy an expensive to maintain diesel engine. A lot of fleets are moving back to gas because the economics of diesel don't make sense with the much higher maintenance costs. You can use all of this consumer behavior to your advantage by buying unpopular but incredibly useful trucks at low prices. Get the longbed regular cab models with gas, they are hard to find but super cheap when you do. In the past 4 months I bought a 2004 F250 with 89k miles in great conditions (no scratches in the unlined bed) from a dealer for $6800. I also bought a 2000 GMC 2500 with lift gate (body was ok, lots of small dents, mechanically super skookum) with 56k miles for $5000 from a private seller. When I looked for trucks, I regularly saw 2500/F250s with over 150k for over $20k (those were diesel, 4x4, crew cab). Yes the trucks get around 14 mpg and can only hold 3 people. I'm not that popular, in the 65k miles I put on my old car over 3 years, less than 1000 were with more than 2 people. I have enough money left over that I will probably be buying a prius or a leaf for my second car.

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2015/04/28/what-does-your-wor...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#307

Post by ZeroGravitas »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #184
grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

> I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. Nobody has addressed the infrastructural problem of recharging massive fleets of privately owned electric vehicles. It's a pipe dream that this will all be fixed by 2030. This will never happen in the US for the foreseeable future. Considering how our broadband surcharges have been siphoned off with nothing to show for it, no amount of go…

Lots of utility grid providers have addressed exactly these problems.

Recently in the UK there were some headlines when the usual suspects in the media published their worst case scenarios as "EVs could destroy the grid!" and the grid had to publish a clarification

http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/1264/ev-myth-buster-v032.p...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#308

Post by keenerd »

donatj wrote: post #262
grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

They're going to be repealed very quickly in my opinion. The laws were written by incredibly over optimistic people with zero understanding of the actual science or practicalities. Unless some fantastic new battery is invented very soon, there literally isn't enough lithium on earth to support the electric car market and lithium ion batteries are soon going to become prohibitively expensive.

> there literally isn't enough lithium on earth to support the electric car market and lithium ion batteries are soon going to become prohibitively expensive.

Probably not true. Check out this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14922104

Particularly the analysis provided by hwillis.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#309

Post by ZeroGravitas »

gnicholas wrote: post #205
aphextron wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leaf is a special case because of the battery degradation issues. 100k miles on a Leaf is basically end of life (unless you buy the $5k battery replacement). That being said, you can pick one up in California for $5k in perfect condition with Definitely a niche thing for heavy urban areas that have the charging infrastructure though. I can't imagine owning one in the Midwest.

Any advice on how to make sure you're getting a good one, or where to get one? We considered Leafs several years ago, but the range wasn't quite good enough for our needs. Since then, our needs have decreased and range has increased a bit. Would love to trade in one of our 25 mpg vehicles for a Leaf. Plenty of chargers around Palo Alto, including at work!

There's guides online for this.

Things I remember off the top of my head:

* there's generations of Leafs, and later ones are better in terms of battery management

* there's a device you can buy and an iPhone app to get better, in-depth info from the battery on a car you intend to purchase

* It was high temperatures that were the achilles heel for early Leaf's so watch out if you live somewhere like Pheonix or if you suspect the car came from somewhere similar

* make sure to check out all the various rebates available for new leafs (from state, federal and utility companies, and group buy offers) to make a fair comparison with a used model.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#310

Post by sangnoir »

akira2501 wrote: post #304
throwawaybbq1 wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't run into stuff??? You realize it is called an "accident" for a reason. The backup camera and blind spot detection are worth real dollars in my experience.

> backup camera and blind spot detection are worth real dollars I agree on the camera.. it's been especially useful in more than a few places on my work truck, but I worry that features like BSM go along with a trend of designing more "stylish" interiors that have significantly reduced visibility along certain angles. The difference between my small Japanese car and my sisters American SUV is amazing. I can physicall…

Generally,American cars provide awefull visibility of surroundings - high and narrow rear windows, and thick pillars make me feel claustrophobic
Post reply on HN