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A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

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Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#281

Post by tonyedgecombe »

NDizzle wrote: post #234
aphextron wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leaf is a special case because of the battery degradation issues. 100k miles on a Leaf is basically end of life (unless you buy the $5k battery replacement). That being said, you can pick one up in California for $5k in perfect condition with Definitely a niche thing for heavy urban areas that have the charging infrastructure though. I can't imagine owning one in the Midwest.

75% battery life on a car that has a 90 mile range? Talk about range anxiety! I'm not sure who looks at those cars, but they sure don't use cars like I do. I don't even commute and I can't imagine the stress of driving something like that.

It would be fine for my wife, she drives 30 miles every day, either commuting or shopping.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#282

Post by throwaway049 »

beejiu wrote: post #21

In the UK, many cars sold in the past few years are under a so-called Personal Contract Plan (PCP). These are basically sub-prime loans for cars where you lease the car for the difference between its purchase price and its projected depreciated value at the end of the term. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/10/car-loans-p... One of the UK regulators recently warned about the exposure to these loans. "An i…

They are only sub prime if the borrower has a greater risk of default than a prime borrower. There is a real issue of mis-selling of these loans in the UK, but the loans are not always sub prime

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#283

Post by jedberg »

JSONwebtoken wrote: post #137
jedberg wrote: post #114

I just bought a new van. It was rediculously easy for me to get a loan for 105% of the retail price (and I didn't even pay retail). I opted not to get the full loan for obvious reasons. But the fact that I could is frightening. There will be so many people underwater on their loans. The car bubble is coming and it's going to pop hard.

Why wouldn't you take the loan on your van? Interest rates are under 3%, which is definitely cheaper than any mortgage or student loan you might be carrying. Auto loan risk is significantly mitigated by modern advancements in GPS & tracking technology. No other collateral is as easily repossessable as a modern car.

3% is barely less than the mortgage, and it wouldn't be worth the hassle. Also I would never pay down my mortgage early.

Which means I need to find an investment that will have a greater than 3% return. Since I can't really guarantee that, it's not really worth it.

I'd rather not put myself into a situation where I'm that badly underwater.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#284

Post by PeachPlum »

curun1r wrote: post #128
admiralpumpkin wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or we'll see "gas" stations incrementally change to "gas-n-charge" stations. As society moves from liquid hydrocarbons to electrons for personal transportation I can see no reason why these locations won't adapt. After all, people will still ingest their liquid fuel and expel their waste. ;-)

We won't need nearly as many charging stations as we need gas stations because electric cars can be charged at home.

Considerable amount of parking here in the UK is on-street. None of the homes built in the post WW2 rebuilding have dedicated room for cars, or any of the 10s of 1000s of homes built before that.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#285

Post by petecooper »

wickawic wrote: post #148
matt_wulfeck wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Man I've been looking for a decently priced leaf for a long time. I'd like to attend an auction like this in the Bay Area. It may be this location but Craigslist is pretty slim pickings.

I think Manheim is a wholesale auction, unfortunately

Manheim policy may vary across the world, but here in the UK they're open to private buyers on most lots.

My nearest auction house is Saltash, Plymouth and twice/weekly sales and upwards of 200 vehicles go through the books. It's quite something to see a car brought to the line, bid on and sold in 2 minutes.

Private buyers pay a larger commission per sale compared to bulk buyers, but hammer price is the same.

There's a twice-yearly plate change in the UK also, so in the coming weeks (from Sep 1) there will be a glut of used cars traded as part exchange for new vehicles.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#286

Post by zimpenfish »

PeachPlum wrote: post #284
curun1r wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We won't need nearly as many charging stations as we need gas stations because electric cars can be charged at home.

Considerable amount of parking here in the UK is on-street. None of the homes built in the post WW2 rebuilding have dedicated room for cars, or any of the 10s of 1000s of homes built before that.

By "post WW2 rebuilding" do you mean a specific limited time period?

Because otherwise, "None" is a bit strong - there's hundreds of new homes and apartments within 5 miles of me that have dedicated parking spaces.

Even my block (seems to be 1960s) has dedicated off-street parking for 8 cars (admittedly there are 12 flats but I suspect 8 cars for 12 flats in the 60s was an outlandish estimate.)

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#287

Post by Maakuth »

slg wrote: post #147
curun1r wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We won't need nearly as many charging stations as we need gas stations because electric cars can be charged at home.

Maybe that is true in rural and suburban environments, but I doubt it in dense urban environments. Adding a charger to every spot in residential parking garages and on every residential street is a bigger infrastructure project than converting over gas stations to chargers. You also have to consider the time it takes to recharge an electric car is much higher than the time to refuel an ICE car.

Interesetingly in the Nordics this is already done. Practically all the parking spots (excluding street side) have 230VAC outlets for engine block warming.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#288

Post by PeachPlum »

gutnor wrote: post #119
hwillis wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any reason to believe that? Almost all car charging is done at night, when grid load is far lower. Charging will not be a problem, and there is no material shortage likely in the near future.

Brand new flat or house built today in Madrid, Spain are fitted at best with a 20A connection. The standing charge alone is more than what I pay for electricity (standing charge and consumption) in a 2 bed flat in London. The vast majority of flat and house I have seen in Spain have 15A or 20A. That includes city, and country houses. It is a cost cutting measure rather than an infrastructure limitation (people chose…

UK houses are generally 50A, single phase.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#289

Post by beambot »

adrianN wrote: post #270
Hasz wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue eating a battery would end in a similar fashion. this is a link https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/seven-substanc... to a Health and Human Services 14th Report on Carcinogens, classifying cobalt as a carcinogen Point being, "liquid cancer" is fear-mongering hyperbole -- lots of things are carcinogenic.

Not many of those things get blown into the air in massive amounts right where population density is highest though.

Precisely! If you need an exemplar, just look at lead... an element that was known for centuries to make people crazy, which was formerly a gasoline additive. And what about all those other additives and emissions? Then you start looking at bunker fuel. This stuff ain't good for you by any stretch.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#290

Post by billysielu »

glogla wrote: post #276
donatj wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it worth 10k? Do you get in a lot of accidents? I genuinely would not want any of those things, I don't want my car making decisions for me, I'm smarter than it. On top of that it's just junk to break you can't fix. I have never been in an accident. I drive a pickup I paid sub $1000 for. Been driving it for three years no issues. That $10k could buy me ten trucks. Would I take it on a trip? No, I rent a car fo…

> That $10k could buy me ten trucks. It's kind of hard to drive them at the same time, though.

You could invest that $10k and the profit would yield infinite trucks.
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