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A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

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Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#121
post #80
post #61

Awesome. My 20 year old car is in great shape but it is getting older and I will need to replace it sooner or later.

Apparently you won't get much for it, then. I'm kind of in the same boat, but I'd really like to get an electric model that's been produced for a few years, which means there won't be much on the used market.

[deleted]

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#122
post #93
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not really comparable at all. A color tv is a fundamentally more distinct product as compared to a b&w tv than a ICE cars is compared to an electric. Especially for the foreseeable future.

Lol in what way?

Because the primary function of a TV is displaying moving pictures while the primary function of a car is not related to its fuel type. The general public has not yet shown a dramatic interest in electric over ICE, but improvements to TV picture have been shown to be major drivers of adoption from color, HD, 4k, and so on. That is the whole reason why these laws are being considered, to help move people off ICE cars quicker than they would in a normal market.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Production of the Chevrolet Bolt has stopped due to lack of demand and bulging inventory, part of the overall problem discussed on this thread http://fortune.com/2017/07/17/gm-shutdown-chevy-bolt-supply/

All other articles and GM comments say that the extended summer shutdown is to increase Bolt supply, not because there is too much supply already. The Bolt outsold both of Tesla's vehicles last month. The Sonic has weak sales, so during the shutdown they're reconfiguring the plant to make 1 Bolt for every 1 Sonic, where it was 1:2 before.

>The Bolt outsold both of Tesla's vehicles last month.

The article says GM sold only 7,592 Bolts in the first six months of this year. Tesla sold way more, and it makes a much higher profit per vehicle.

I don't know why Bolt sales are so low. When it came out the reviews were all very positive, and they said it would be strong competition for the Tesla Model 3. But the Tesla already has several hundred thousand pre-orders, whereas the Bolt is basically going no where.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#124

I just bought a new van. It was rediculously easy for me to get a loan for 105% of the retail price (and I didn't even pay retail). I opted not to get the full loan for obvious reasons. But the fact that I could is frightening. There will be so many people underwater on their loans. The car bubble is coming and it's going to pop hard.

I thought anyone who finances a new car is underwater as soon as they drive off the lot. Don't new cars depreciate something like 20% the day you buy them? EDIT: I was wrong it's closer to 9% [1]

[1] https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/how-fast-does-my-new-car-...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#125

This may be temporary, as services like Uber/Lyft increase, and the possibility of Autonomous Vehicles driving down the cost of those services. This would cause the volume of new cars needed to dramatically fall, leading to increased cost of those new vehicles. This would increase the value of used vehicles that are currently priced in. Would love to hear differing opinions :)

"Would love to hear differing opinions :)" Erm... A decrease in demand does not lead to an increase in price.

That's a bit simplistic. Substantial demand makes economies of scale possible which can lead to lower prices. The opposite is also true (i.e. lack of demand leading to increased production costs).

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you tell us more? Was this in some niche segments of discontinued but popular models (like certain Subarus) or were run of the mill cars also like this?

I think 2012 was the peak of this, with some models literally being cheaper out the door new than 1 or 2 years old. http://business.time.com/2012/03/22/when-new-cars-are-cheape... http://genxfinance.com/buying-a-new-car-may-actually-be-chea... Short version, a couple of things hit at the same time. I don't think Cash For Clunkers was involved as those cars were much older than the 1-2 year old ones, but it was more a…

See my other comment but I still see this today! I was looking everywhere for that mythical 20% off and saw nothing of the sort.

I'd love to find a bunch of cars just "driven off the lot" I could get that discount on.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#128
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When new car sales move to electric from gasoline, you'll start to see gas stations go out of business...slowly at first but accelerating as the percentage of gas powered vehicles declines. You'll still have your car and be allowed to drive it, but the days of just finding a gas station wherever you need them will be over. Much like early days of electric cars, people will need a concrete refueling plan for every tri…

Or we'll see "gas" stations incrementally change to "gas-n-charge" stations. As society moves from liquid hydrocarbons to electrons for personal transportation I can see no reason why these locations won't adapt. After all, people will still ingest their liquid fuel and expel their waste. ;-)

We won't need nearly as many charging stations as we need gas stations because electric cars can be charged at home.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#129

This may be temporary, as services like Uber/Lyft increase, and the possibility of Autonomous Vehicles driving down the cost of those services. This would cause the volume of new cars needed to dramatically fall, leading to increased cost of those new vehicles. This would increase the value of used vehicles that are currently priced in. Would love to hear differing opinions :)

"Would love to hear differing opinions :)" Erm... A decrease in demand does not lead to an increase in price.

Economies of scale apply in reverse as well, and reduced sales reduces the number of items over which fixed costs can be amortized.

Decreased demand can lead to decreased production, causing further increased prices and further decreased demand.

If the market clearing price rises above the demand curve, production ceases.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a link to support this? My comment/link wasn't a dis of EV's, it was pointing out the glut of inventory GM are sitting on, including EV's. If you are interested in a Bolt now would be an excellent time to bargain for one at the dealership...

http://insideevs.com/general-motors-comments-bolt-inventory-... https://cleantechnica.com/2017/07/21/chevy-bolt-production-i...

thanks! Both pro EV sites, but useful perspective and intel...
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