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A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

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Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#141

Post by matt_wulfeck »

wbracken wrote: post #109

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run tho…

Man I've been looking for a decently priced leaf for a long time. I'd like to attend an auction like this in the Bay Area.

It may be this location but Craigslist is pretty slim pickings.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#142

Post by grogenaut »

mikeash wrote: post #66
FLUX-YOU wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kinda curious how electrical vehicles will fare during a mandatory evacuation or disaster. If you don't have a full charge, there's not an easy way to get a full charge, and so you will just not have transportation the full route.

200+ miles ought to be enough to get you out of the disaster area. Plus if you can charge at home you'll almost always be near full, whereas most people let gas tanks get low before filling them back up.

You generally don't leave disaster areas at highway speeds. Electrics should be better at this if you don't run the tunes or the ac. Also there are a lot of disasters that will be bigger than 200m. If Rainier goes off it will have a very large ash spread mostly east depending on prevailing winds. Seattle was just blanketed by smoke from way up in bc all the way to Portland. Way more than 200 miles. Imagine if it was a foot + of air intake clogging ash and low visibility.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#143

Post by S_A_P »

This bubble has been building for years now. Wholesalers and other exporters have been hiding the problem for a while now, and but somethings got to give. The problem is multifaceted:

1) Lease rates arent necessarily in sync with the used car market 2) Buyers are keeping cars longer if they purchase 3) Subprime loans and buy here/pay here dealers are multiplying.

THIS IS A BUBBLE. I wont call when its going to burst, and it wont be like the housing bubble, but the fallout will be great...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#144

Post by rconti »

olivermarks wrote: post #97
dangrossman wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All other articles and GM comments say that the extended summer shutdown is to increase Bolt supply, not because there is too much supply already. The Bolt outsold both of Tesla's vehicles last month. The Sonic has weak sales, so during the shutdown they're reconfiguring the plant to make 1 Bolt for every 1 Sonic, where it was 1:2 before.

Do you have a link to support this? My comment/link wasn't a dis of EV's, it was pointing out the glut of inventory GM are sitting on, including EV's. If you are interested in a Bolt now would be an excellent time to bargain for one at the dealership...

Wow. I wonder how much of it has to do with the Model 3 (supposedly) being right around the corner. My wife's next car will likely be electric; we haven't looked at the Bolt YET but when the Model 3 hits of course we'll be shopping all of the competition.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#145

Post by djKianoosh »

grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

If what you say becomes true, then those 911's and R8's (I'm guessing that's generally what you mean by exotics/pleasure drives) will actually go UP in value, no?

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#146

Post by usaphp »

tmnvix wrote: post #132
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but... How many used cars are sold in a year? It's got to be more than a million, doesn't it? So, yes, that $15 million Porsche drives up the average price... by $15. That's not significant.

$15 due to a single sale seems very significant. Correct me if I'm wrong, but by your reckoning just 100 super collectable sales (average $5m) could raise the overall average by over $500.

It's still insignificant in terms of the OP comment. Also there aren't 100 cars with an average price of 5 Mln sold per year, far from it [1]

1 - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_cars_...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#147

Post by slg »

curun1r wrote: post #128
admiralpumpkin wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or we'll see "gas" stations incrementally change to "gas-n-charge" stations. As society moves from liquid hydrocarbons to electrons for personal transportation I can see no reason why these locations won't adapt. After all, people will still ingest their liquid fuel and expel their waste. ;-)

We won't need nearly as many charging stations as we need gas stations because electric cars can be charged at home.

Maybe that is true in rural and suburban environments, but I doubt it in dense urban environments. Adding a charger to every spot in residential parking garages and on every residential street is a bigger infrastructure project than converting over gas stations to chargers. You also have to consider the time it takes to recharge an electric car is much higher than the time to refuel an ICE car.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#148

Post by wickawic »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #141
wbracken wrote: post #109

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me: 1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run tho…

Man I've been looking for a decently priced leaf for a long time. I'd like to attend an auction like this in the Bay Area. It may be this location but Craigslist is pretty slim pickings.

I think Manheim is a wholesale auction, unfortunately

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#150

Post by badwolf »

maxerickson wrote: post #136
curun1r wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When new car sales move to electric from gasoline, you'll start to see gas stations go out of business...slowly at first but accelerating as the percentage of gas powered vehicles declines. You'll still have your car and be allowed to drive it, but the days of just finding a gas station wherever you need them will be over. Much like early days of electric cars, people will need a concrete refueling plan for every tri…

They make a lot of their money in the convenience store. I think a lot of them will stay in business and just have a smaller tank/less pumps.

So long Bucees!
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