Earlier quoted context omitted.
All other articles and GM comments say that the extended summer shutdown is to increase Bolt supply, not because there is too much supply already. The Bolt outsold both of Tesla's vehicles last month. The Sonic has weak sales, so during the shutdown they're reconfiguring the plant to make 1 Bolt for every 1 Sonic, where it was 1:2 before.
Do you have a link to support this? My comment/link wasn't a dis of EV's, it was pointing out the glut of inventory GM are sitting on, including EV's. If you are interested in a Bolt now would be an excellent time to bargain for one at the dealership...
A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
101–110 of 376 posts
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#102With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…
There's a non-negligible chance that everything will be self-driving by 2030, and you'll call a car from a car-service on demand instead of owning one.
(Yeah, I just got stuck behind a Waymo self-driving vehicle on El Camino again today. They are annoying, but much further along than anyone who doesn't live in Silicon Valley realizes.)
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#103This may be temporary, as services like Uber/Lyft increase, and the possibility of Autonomous Vehicles driving down the cost of those services. This would cause the volume of new cars needed to dramatically fall, leading to increased cost of those new vehicles. This would increase the value of used vehicles that are currently priced in. Would love to hear differing opinions :)
You live in a bubble, visit middle america
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's a real question as to whether we'll have enough copper, too.
I wonder if we can "mine" all of the old copper wires (telephones, etc)?
There is a very lucrative black market in "recycled" copper. It's been known to be stolen off trucks by the tonne.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#105Its looking even worse (Or better for a buyer) for electric cars. A cursory craigslist search shows a 2014 Fiat 500e for ~7.5k @33k miles and Nissan Leafs for as little as ~5k @42k miles. All with clean titles. A used Model S 60 (2013) can be found for ~40k @60k miles, which I think is good but not great, especially considering the quality issues early on. I'm waiting to pounce on 1st generation electric cars that wi…
As someone who at one point considered a 500e, why so cheap in the aftermarket? Are they really falling apart this quickly?
From my understanding, a lot of it has to do with a combination of the subsidies that are being offered and with the rapid increase in range of newer models.
For example, my buddy in Boulder, CO bought a brand new Nissan Leaf for ~$12k (MSRp ~$30k). In addition to the state/federal credits, the local utility was offering $12k rebates or something like that.
Combine that with the fact that some of the early models had really low range (I think the early Leafs were below 80 miles) and I could see why the used market is behaving the way it is.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#106Awesome. My 20 year old car is in great shape but it is getting older and I will need to replace it sooner or later.
I'm hanging on to my 2001 Honda Civic because I'm hoping self-driving cars make taxi services cheap enough to render it obsolete before I have to replace it.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#107Awesome. My 20 year old car is in great shape but it is getting older and I will need to replace it sooner or later.
Apparently you won't get much for it, then. I'm kind of in the same boat, but I'd really like to get an electric model that's been produced for a few years, which means there won't be much on the used market.
About two years ago I bought an off lease 2012 Nissan Leaf for about 12k including all taxes and fees. It had 20k miles on it, very good condition, and battery at about 90%.
So far I have been very happy, and have spent nearly no money on the car besides insurance and registration since my employer offers free charging.
Obviously range is an issue, but is mitigated since I am married and have a gas car as well to use on longer trips. My wife and I never both drive further than the leaf can take us in a normal work day.
Anyway, I tell this story because I was surprised to find that there were a huge number available in the Bay Area where I live. It seems that uncertainty over future models with increased range and the lifespan of the batteries has made many people reluctant to make a purchase leaving quite a glut. The retailer I purchased from had about 25 Nissan Leafs in his lot.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it's likely some other resource might be a constraint in that tight a timeline though. Either something for the cars themselves, or the infrastructure for charging them.
Do you have any reason to believe that? Almost all car charging is done at night, when grid load is far lower. Charging will not be a problem, and there is no material shortage likely in the near future.
Just the ban being 5 years out.
I've certainly run into homes that couldn't add a clothes dryer circuit without major renovation involving the city.
Not saying it will be be an issue everywhere, but the span is too short for it not to be an issue in many places.
Given the short time frame, proof that there aren't issues would seem more prudent. Whether that's manufacturing capacity for batteries, or grid shortfalls in certain areas, or whatever.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#109Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me:
1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run those cars through the auction, they will have to book the full losses. Say they anticipated 20% repossession rate and that they would get 80% on the dollar when auctioned on those losses. When they run them through now and get 50% on the dollar, their securitization pools will be creamed.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#110With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…
Many countries in 2030? Germany's upper house passed a non-binding resolution about how they want it to happen in 2030. What others are there? There are bunch of countries talking about 2040 and a few including the UK have legislated. However, that is safe enough that the current bunch of legislators will be long gone. It might also be like repeatedly missed emissions targets and so on. Also, called petroleum liquid…
Indeed, 0-emission target (i.e. no car, truck, bus, train new or old circulating emitting CO2) for London is 2050.
However, there is a trend at the moment both in local government and national one. If that is followed by actual investment in charging infrastructure, sometimes between 2020-2030 electric cars could reach critical mass.
At the same time, some region and countries of Europe are already thinking going backward on fiscal encouragement to buy an electric car. In Europe the major part of the fuel cost is taxes, and at some point they will need to find something to tax electric cars on, doing it too early could kill electric cars momentum ... so wait and see.