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A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

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Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#82
post #68
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the laws only apply to new vehicles. It's similar to when Color TVs were invented. What happened to the re-sale value of all the B&W TVs that were already out there? They plummeted, because they had been superseded. This scenario will be even more aggressive, because laws will ban the sale of the "old tech".

> Yes, the laws only apply to new vehicles. >because laws will ban the sale of the "old tech". ?

I mean laws will ban the sale of new ICE cars, which by then will be the "old tech".

So when you can't even buy one new, why would someone want a used one? (unless, like I said, it's a pleasure driver or some exotic, which is a tiny fraction of all cars sold)

Think of all the things that have been replaced and superseded in history - once the new thing exists, the old one drops in price dramatically.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#83
post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

Many countries in 2030?

Germany's upper house passed a non-binding resolution about how they want it to happen in 2030. What others are there?

There are bunch of countries talking about 2040 and a few including the UK have legislated. However, that is safe enough that the current bunch of legislators will be long gone. It might also be like repeatedly missed emissions targets and so on.

Also, called petroleum liquid cancer is inflammatory.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#84
post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

A friend who is a materials engineer told me that there aren't enough rare-Earth metals in the world to supply the demand for magnets to replace all of the current petrol based cars with electric cars. No sources unfortunately, but this thing might not scale.

There's a real question as to whether we'll have enough copper, too.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#85
post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

I can't see a law like that passing in the US for generations.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#86

Its looking even worse (Or better for a buyer) for electric cars. A cursory craigslist search shows a 2014 Fiat 500e for ~7.5k @33k miles and Nissan Leafs for as little as ~5k @42k miles. All with clean titles. A used Model S 60 (2013) can be found for ~40k @60k miles, which I think is good but not great, especially considering the quality issues early on. I'm waiting to pounce on 1st generation electric cars that wi…

As someone who at one point considered a 500e, why so cheap in the aftermarket? Are they really falling apart this quickly?

Potentially. But I think it's also the fact that dealerships are leasing out the 500e at $99 or even $59 a month for 3 year deals. So why even buy a used 500e when you can get a brand new one for <$100 a month or $1200 a year.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#87
post #80
post #61

Awesome. My 20 year old car is in great shape but it is getting older and I will need to replace it sooner or later.

Apparently you won't get much for it, then. I'm kind of in the same boat, but I'd really like to get an electric model that's been produced for a few years, which means there won't be much on the used market.

You missed his point. He will wear out his car until it has no value then gladly buy another used car at a great price.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#88
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A friend who is a materials engineer told me that there aren't enough rare-Earth metals in the world to supply the demand for magnets to replace all of the current petrol based cars with electric cars. No sources unfortunately, but this thing might not scale.

There's a real question as to whether we'll have enough copper, too.

I wonder if we can "mine" all of the old copper wires (telephones, etc)?

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#89
post #80
post #61

Awesome. My 20 year old car is in great shape but it is getting older and I will need to replace it sooner or later.

Apparently you won't get much for it, then. I'm kind of in the same boat, but I'd really like to get an electric model that's been produced for a few years, which means there won't be much on the used market.

There are lots of 2015 Nissan Leafs coming off 2 year leases. I picked up one 6 months ago for $8500 with 19k miles.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#90
post #82
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, the laws only apply to new vehicles. >because laws will ban the sale of the "old tech". ?

I mean laws will ban the sale of new ICE cars, which by then will be the "old tech". So when you can't even buy one new, why would someone want a used one? (unless, like I said, it's a pleasure driver or some exotic, which is a tiny fraction of all cars sold) Think of all the things that have been replaced and superseded in history - once the new thing exists, the old one drops in price dramatically.

I think you underestimate the financial burden of buying a car. As long as a gas vehicle runs, they'll be a market for it. If they depreciate even faster, they'll still be a market. People don't care about resale at the bottom of the market. They care about reliable transportation which I assume gas cars will continue to provide.

There are plenty of 20 year old vehicles out there with plenty of life left in them.

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