Awesome. My 20 year old car is in great shape but it is getting older and I will need to replace it sooner or later.
A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
61–70 of 376 posts
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
Aren't all those laws focused on new cars? I can't imagine the backlash a government would receive by zeroing out the value of most people's most expensive possession.
Yes, the laws only apply to new vehicles. It's similar to when Color TVs were invented. What happened to the re-sale value of all the B&W TVs that were already out there? They plummeted, because they had been superseded. This scenario will be even more aggressive, because laws will ban the sale of the "old tech".
No, the laws will only affect new car sales, not the old tech. That doesn't affect the secondary market for used gasoline cars in the slightest.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#63The average used car costs $15,300? That seems pretty wild. Are the classic Porsches that sell for $10 million dragging the average up?
The number of porshes that are being sold for $14 million is a drop in the sea compared to the whole used car industry
Far-over-median priced vehicles will still drag up the average.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
Aren't all those laws focused on new cars? I can't imagine the backlash a government would receive by zeroing out the value of most people's most expensive possession.
Yes, the laws only apply to new vehicles. It's similar to when Color TVs were invented. What happened to the re-sale value of all the B&W TVs that were already out there? They plummeted, because they had been superseded. This scenario will be even more aggressive, because laws will ban the sale of the "old tech".
That's not really comparable at all. A color tv is a fundamentally more distinct product as compared to a b&w tv than a ICE cars is compared to an electric. Especially for the foreseeable future.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kinda curious how electrical vehicles will fare during a mandatory evacuation or disaster. If you don't have a full charge, there's not an easy way to get a full charge, and so you will just not have transportation the full route.
Have you seen what happens to gas stations during a mandatory evacuation or disaster? With no electricity, gas can not be pumped from the tanks. Even when it can, there is immediately a line-up of 100s of vehicles. (I see this very often in West Africa)
I saw it the other day when the eclipse came to Oregon, and the population suddenly increased by 25% for a few days.
I'm guessing that if the number of electric cars surged by 25% for a few days, it would be much less of a problem.
[0]: http://www.kgw.com/news/eclipse/gas-shortages-long-waits-rep...
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#66With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…
Kinda curious how electrical vehicles will fare during a mandatory evacuation or disaster. If you don't have a full charge, there's not an easy way to get a full charge, and so you will just not have transportation the full route.
200+ miles ought to be enough to get you out of the disaster area. Plus if you can charge at home you'll almost always be near full, whereas most people let gas tanks get low before filling them back up.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#67With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…
A friend who is a materials engineer told me that there aren't enough rare-Earth metals in the world to supply the demand for magnets to replace all of the current petrol based cars with electric cars. No sources unfortunately, but this thing might not scale.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
Aren't all those laws focused on new cars? I can't imagine the backlash a government would receive by zeroing out the value of most people's most expensive possession.
Yes, the laws only apply to new vehicles. It's similar to when Color TVs were invented. What happened to the re-sale value of all the B&W TVs that were already out there? They plummeted, because they had been superseded. This scenario will be even more aggressive, because laws will ban the sale of the "old tech".
> Yes, the laws only apply to new vehicles.
>because laws will ban the sale of the "old tech".
?
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#69With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…
A friend who is a materials engineer told me that there aren't enough rare-Earth metals in the world to supply the demand for magnets to replace all of the current petrol based cars with electric cars. No sources unfortunately, but this thing might not scale.
That's part of the reason why practically all electric cars currently in production use induction motors, which only require copper.
Yes, it would require more rare earths than are currently economically feasible to mine if we replaced every fossil fuel engine with a permanent magnet electric motor of equal power.
The only real difference between the two is the design difficulty of the drive circuitry for the VFD to run the induction motor. That's largely a solved problem.
Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
The number of porshes that are being sold for $14 million is a drop in the sea compared to the whole used car industry
Far-over-median priced vehicles will still drag up the average.
Yes, but...
How many used cars are sold in a year? It's got to be more than a million, doesn't it? So, yes, that $15 million Porsche drives up the average price... by $15. That's not significant.