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Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars

ben-evans.com

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Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars

#11

Post by stephengillie »

Given the lack of network effect in cars already, it's not likely we'll see a huge explosion of inter-car connectivity anytime soon. Even Tesla see their cars largely as individual machines, and not nodes on a highway network.

Example: Driving with cruise control on at 60 mph. The car in front is going ~59.5 mph, so you slowly gain on them. Why do the cars not communicate their speed, so your car can adjust speed to maintain a safe distance? Even cars of the same brand can't do this today. What will be the catalyst for this changing?

Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars

#12

Post by pscarey »

stephengillie wrote: post #11

Given the lack of network effect in cars already, it's not likely we'll see a huge explosion of inter-car connectivity anytime soon. Even Tesla see their cars largely as individual machines, and not nodes on a highway network. Example: Driving with cruise control on at 60 mph. The car in front is going ~59.5 mph, so you slowly gain on them. Why do the cars not communicate their speed, so your car can adjust speed to…

Surely the (already) observable relative difference is more important than what the car thinks it's speed is? Both cars might read 60mph and go at different speeds. Therefore I don't see much need for that to change.

I think more interesting would be smarter traffic control systems which communicate with cars in cities to advise traffic flows - a simple example being a (wirelessly) counting down light rather than red/amber/green.

Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars

#13

Post by 6d6b73 »

djyaz1200 wrote: post #7

Autonomous cars are going to kill people, lots of people. They are going to kill passengers, bicyclists, pedestrians etc. It has already happened and will continue. Even though autonomous cars will be (and Tesla argues already are) safer than human drivers the fact that these deaths will be at the hands of machines rather than people will outrage the public. The industry will become even more heavily regulated, and t…

>Good drivers really distinguish themselves in the moments where the inputs and behaviors that are expected do not occur (ex: tire blow out).

Autonomous cars will be much better at handling these types of situations - in your example, the machine will know what's going on few milliseconds after it happens and will be able to adjust speed and direction almost instantaneously. All you need is lots of sensors.

Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars

#14

Post by tomsthumb »

stephengillie wrote: post #11

Given the lack of network effect in cars already, it's not likely we'll see a huge explosion of inter-car connectivity anytime soon. Even Tesla see their cars largely as individual machines, and not nodes on a highway network. Example: Driving with cruise control on at 60 mph. The car in front is going ~59.5 mph, so you slowly gain on them. Why do the cars not communicate their speed, so your car can adjust speed to…

> Why do the cars not communicate their speed, so your car can adjust speed to maintain a safe distance?

How do you deal with spoofing info for/from another vehicle?

What happens when someone decides to see what happens when they `inter_car_radio.broadcast(myspeed=0)` or `inter_car_radio.broadcast(myspeed=120)` when the speed limit is 80?

Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars

#15

Post by somenewacc »

microcolonel wrote: post #3
ghaff wrote: post #2

This makes sense--and is quite consistent with what I've heard around some efforts being far more open (ahem) to open sourcing their code than their data. A lot probably comes down to the size of the moat. If some fairly modest dataset is "good enough" that implies needed data will be widely available can be used by anyone for their automation algorithms. (Regulation could also force some level of standardization at…

> A lot probably comes down to the size of the moat. If some fairly modest dataset is "good enough" that implies needed data will be widely available can be used by anyone for their automation algorithms. (Regulation could also force some level of standardization at this layer.) Given that humans do without detailed data of this sort, I think it should be okay to leave manufacturers and service providers to figure ou…

> Given that humans do without detailed data of this sort

Humans learn by using data from their interactions with the environment, since childhood. That's a ton of data and there might not be a way around that.

Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars

#16

Post by 6d6b73 »

stephengillie wrote: post #11

Given the lack of network effect in cars already, it's not likely we'll see a huge explosion of inter-car connectivity anytime soon. Even Tesla see their cars largely as individual machines, and not nodes on a highway network. Example: Driving with cruise control on at 60 mph. The car in front is going ~59.5 mph, so you slowly gain on them. Why do the cars not communicate their speed, so your car can adjust speed to…

Cars should not depend on information from other cars, they should treat them just as suggestions, or intents, not actual events. In your example, the reported speed of the car will depend of many factors like tire size, quality of the sensor or even humidity or temperature, so it can't be trusted by other cars.

Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars

#17

Post by [deleted] »

stephengillie wrote: post #11

Given the lack of network effect in cars already, it's not likely we'll see a huge explosion of inter-car connectivity anytime soon. Even Tesla see their cars largely as individual machines, and not nodes on a highway network. Example: Driving with cruise control on at 60 mph. The car in front is going ~59.5 mph, so you slowly gain on them. Why do the cars not communicate their speed, so your car can adjust speed to…

[deleted]

Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars

#19

Post by joewadcan »

djyaz1200 wrote: post #7

Autonomous cars are going to kill people, lots of people. They are going to kill passengers, bicyclists, pedestrians etc. It has already happened and will continue. Even though autonomous cars will be (and Tesla argues already are) safer than human drivers the fact that these deaths will be at the hands of machines rather than people will outrage the public. The industry will become even more heavily regulated, and t…

> Autonomous cars are going to kill people, lots of people. They are going to kill passengers, bicyclists, pedestrians etc. It has already happened and will continue.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla (and other autonomous driving providers) directly offer customers their own insurance and liability coverage. The auto insurance companies of the world see the writing on the wall, yet have no data to accurately model or price such a product. It might be a good thing too, since it providers a second layer of incentive to improve the underlying autonomy technology.

Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars

#20

Post by 6d6b73 »

ghaff wrote: post #10
djyaz1200 wrote: post #7

Autonomous cars are going to kill people, lots of people. They are going to kill passengers, bicyclists, pedestrians etc. It has already happened and will continue. Even though autonomous cars will be (and Tesla argues already are) safer than human drivers the fact that these deaths will be at the hands of machines rather than people will outrage the public. The industry will become even more heavily regulated, and t…

The liability question will be an interesting one--far more so than trolley problems IMO. There aren't a lot of examples where we just accept things sold to consumers killing people when used according to directions and properly maintained because "hey, sometimes stuff happens." Drugs are probably the best example. But even that isn't a case of your drugs killing someone else. I do think it will figured out in some f…

>But you're right that the general public isn't going to shrug when $AUTOMAKER's car runs over a skateboarder and the company says "We are committed to safety and we'll try harder next time."

Unfortunately many examples from recent years (acceleration pedals, air bags, tires) show that after few weeks everybody will forget about the issue and move on.

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