Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
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Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
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Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
#2This makes sense--and is quite consistent with what I've heard around some efforts being far more open (ahem) to open sourcing their code than their data.
A lot probably comes down to the size of the moat. If some fairly modest dataset is "good enough" that implies needed data will be widely available can be used by anyone for their automation algorithms. (Regulation could also force some level of standardization at this layer.)
Alternatively, truly vast data sets could turn out to be the difference between decent assistive driving systems, autonomy on highways, and more broadly useful and enabling self-driving technology. Such data sets could end up being outside the capabilities of a few companies who got there first.
Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
#3This makes sense--and is quite consistent with what I've heard around some efforts being far more open (ahem) to open sourcing their code than their data. A lot probably comes down to the size of the moat. If some fairly modest dataset is "good enough" that implies needed data will be widely available can be used by anyone for their automation algorithms. (Regulation could also force some level of standardization at…
> A lot probably comes down to the size of the moat. If some fairly modest dataset is "good enough" that implies needed data will be widely available can be used by anyone for their automation algorithms. (Regulation could also force some level of standardization at this layer.)
Given that humans do without detailed data of this sort, I think it should be okay to leave manufacturers and service providers to figure out how proprietary or standardized the datasets should be.
I personally might never trust/desire an autonomous car, especially one connected to the internet, a phone network, or a car-to-car network. In a world where everyone has your best interests at heart, it seems like a nice feature; in the one world we've got, it doesn't.
Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
#4This makes sense--and is quite consistent with what I've heard around some efforts being far more open (ahem) to open sourcing their code than their data. A lot probably comes down to the size of the moat. If some fairly modest dataset is "good enough" that implies needed data will be widely available can be used by anyone for their automation algorithms. (Regulation could also force some level of standardization at…
> A lot probably comes down to the size of the moat. If some fairly modest dataset is "good enough" that implies needed data will be widely available can be used by anyone for their automation algorithms. (Regulation could also force some level of standardization at this layer.) Given that humans do without detailed data of this sort, I think it should be okay to leave manufacturers and service providers to figure ou…
Made me think of Michael Hastings demise... https://youtu.be/7zakBULPETo
Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
#5Earlier quoted context omitted.
> A lot probably comes down to the size of the moat. If some fairly modest dataset is "good enough" that implies needed data will be widely available can be used by anyone for their automation algorithms. (Regulation could also force some level of standardization at this layer.) Given that humans do without detailed data of this sort, I think it should be okay to leave manufacturers and service providers to figure ou…
Made me think of Michael Hastings demise... https://youtu.be/7zakBULPETo
The real point is that it is possible.
Any specific suspicious death may come and go, but the fact that something like this is believable with conventional networked cars is enough reason to be very skeptical of security and government access (and criminal access) claims of manufacturers, no matter how well-meaning.
Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
#6[deleted]
Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
#7Autonomous cars are going to kill people, lots of people. They are going to kill passengers, bicyclists, pedestrians etc. It has already happened and will continue. Even though autonomous cars will be (and Tesla argues already are) safer than human drivers the fact that these deaths will be at the hands of machines rather than people will outrage the public. The industry will become even more heavily regulated, and there won't be any tolerance for testing unproven autonomous systems in the wild soon.
Related... it will be interesting to see how well autonomous cars handle mechanical failures as they (and their tires) age. Good drivers really distinguish themselves in the moments where the inputs and behaviors that are expected do not occur (ex: tire blow out).
Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
#8Let's say you're a strong company ,one that can manage to achieve a lead of, say 5 years over competitors with the tech. Does anybody think you won't(most likely) manage to bind yourself to a stable competitive advantage in this industry, if such exists ?
Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
#9[deleted]
Re: Winner-take-all effects in autonomous cars
#10Autonomous cars are going to kill people, lots of people. They are going to kill passengers, bicyclists, pedestrians etc. It has already happened and will continue. Even though autonomous cars will be (and Tesla argues already are) safer than human drivers the fact that these deaths will be at the hands of machines rather than people will outrage the public. The industry will become even more heavily regulated, and t…
The liability question will be an interesting one--far more so than trolley problems IMO. There aren't a lot of examples where we just accept things sold to consumers killing people when used according to directions and properly maintained because "hey, sometimes stuff happens." Drugs are probably the best example. But even that isn't a case of your drugs killing someone else.
I do think it will figured out in some future where there's true autonomy and they're proven far safer statistically. But you're right that the general public isn't going to shrug when $AUTOMAKER's car runs over a skateboarder and the company says "We are committed to safety and we'll try harder next time."
There's also the uncanny valley when no one's paying attention although they're legally supposed to be.