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Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

fredrikdeboer.com

141–150 of 185 posts

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#141
post #119

Parents, teachers, and students are so focused on "education" as a pedigree and job pipeline that if they don't see an immediate connection between a topic and a paycheck they're like "Who cares?! Why are you wasting my kid's time on that?" When the whole thing is an exercise in competitive pedigreeing, of course it's going to be gamed. If it were more about human development, we'd be focusing on the deltas instead,…

> If it were more about human development, we'd be focusing on the deltas instead, and they'd be harder to fudge. If you were scored based on delta, gaming it would be laughably easy. Just completely fail your first exam, and then steadily "improve" to your real skill level. That's basically incentivizing students to do what Intel does with processors :)

Your thinking here is still in job-credential-land. If the goal is still some kind of 3rd-party pedigree, that is going to be infinitely gameable no matter how you measure it--but that wasn't what I argued!

I'm not talking about getting graded USDA Prime so I can fetch the best price in the meat case. I'm talking about personal development. When you go to a personal trainer, you're not going to fudge your delta because you can't fudge your delta--the degree is your body, and everyone will know if you passed or failed.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#142
post #122

A while ago I read a review of a book called "The trouble with diversity" by Walter Benn Michaels. I was struck by his claim that universities serve to "launder privilege into qualifications". To me, this helps to emphasize the importance of class in America. Rich kids go to Harvard, after graduating from wonderful high schools, helped by private tutors, and, most importantly , knowing that their wealth and their par…

> I succeeded because I'm smart, not because I'm rich. This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. This is a major improvement over the old system where you just need to be rich. This is not a uniquely American phenomenon. Top universities in the UK and top grandes ecoles in France are also dominated by the middle class. I'm sure other countries are like that too if not worse…

concept of блат

Can you explain that?

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#143
post #103

Loved this article. It presents a compelling case that most colleges are providing near-equivalent education , and that the variance is mostly in selection bias. My only objection: at the end, the author takes issue with the fact that it's nearly impossible to get people to take selection bias into account when choosing where to send their kids. However, there's another possible factor that I think parents might be c…

I think the network is overrated. Everyone I've known has had the same experience - immediately after graduating, everyone gets a job, moves far away from one another, and slowly drifts apart from the friends they met in college. You'll get a similar network working at your first job. And then your second job. The group you met in college is of little consequence in the end.

I generally disagree that the university network is unimportant.

"85% of All Jobs are Filled Via Networking"[1]; the network in most cases (certainly mine) will consist of people they met at or through university.

In this case, I would argue that the "through" university section is highly important. If you go to uni, land a couple of internships at large companies or go on exchanges you probably have a very large network of people you otherwise wouldn't have.

I do, however, agree that it takes effort (on both sides) to maintain the friendships and connections made at university.

[1] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/new-survey-reveals-85-all-job...

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#144
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. Like Paris Hilton, Kim Kardasian, etc.? No, rich is still the only requirement. Those other things just give you more options.

I'd lump beautiful women and gifted athletes into the "smart" category. While not necessarily the same in practice the effect of being either is basically the same as being incredibly smart except there's more luck involved. Neither are common enough to get their own category IMO

I'm not saying those women aren't "smart", I don't know them personally. I'm saying it doesn't matter if they are or not.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#145
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. Like Paris Hilton, Kim Kardasian, etc.? No, rich is still the only requirement. Those other things just give you more options.

I'd lump beautiful women and gifted athletes into the "smart" category. While not necessarily the same in practice the effect of being either is basically the same as being incredibly smart except there's more luck involved. Neither are common enough to get their own category IMO

Being gifted is being gifted, yes, the area is important but secondary. And there is no more luck involved. It's probably the same mechanism, too (low mutational load).

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#146
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it were more about human development, we'd be focusing on the deltas instead, and they'd be harder to fudge. If you were scored based on delta, gaming it would be laughably easy. Just completely fail your first exam, and then steadily "improve" to your real skill level. That's basically incentivizing students to do what Intel does with processors :)

Your thinking here is still in job-credential-land. If the goal is still some kind of 3rd-party pedigree, that is going to be infinitely gameable no matter how you measure it--but that wasn't what I argued! I'm not talking about getting graded USDA Prime so I can fetch the best price in the meat case. I'm talking about personal development. When you go to a personal trainer, you're not going to fudge your delta becau…

But if you want personal development then gaming isn't an issue (why lie to yourself?), and even if you do - changing the metric isn't going to stop you.

And grading in absolute values is still more useful to asses your performance than deltas anyway: "you can lift X kg today" is more useful than "you can lift 2 kg more today"?

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#147
post #133
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I succeeded because I'm smart, not because I'm rich. This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. This is a major improvement over the old system where you just need to be rich. This is not a uniquely American phenomenon. Top universities in the UK and top grandes ecoles in France are also dominated by the middle class. I'm sure other countries are like that too if not worse…

>This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. Like Paris Hilton, Kim Kardasian, etc.? No, rich is still the only requirement. Those other things just give you more options.

> >This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart.

> Like Paris Hilton, Kim Kardasian, etc.? No, rich is still the only requirement. Those other things just give you more options.

For every person you cite as being wildly successful only because of the money they were born into, you could also cite people who came from nothing and became multi-millionaires. Or people who were born rich and didn't succeed.

You're not wrong - there are people who only needed to be rich to begin with. But giving examples like you have doesn't counter the above point.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#148
post #116
post #96

Uh, look, guys who didn't like my post: If you read carefully and think a little, just a little, not much at all, just a very little, you will see that my post is about the only item, ray of light, for the concerns of the OP. Look, guys: How the heck to get the students with native ability, but otherwise disadvantaged, doing well? Well, as in the OP, that's tough. But, but, but, but, but, but, if we think a little, j…

You are rambling. I do not mean that as an insult, just as an observation that might help your writing. Maybe you could do it like (1) Get a book on writing. (2) Read the book. (3) Do the exercises. Seems to work for you. However, the way you learn best doesn't have to be the way that is best for everyone else. See, when I took calculus in high school, I (1) Got the book. (2) Flipped through it in an afternoon. (3) D…

My writing was fine! It was effective! My first post on that topic was too short. My "rambling" -- actually it was well enough organized -- worked because you understood it just fine.

As I mentioned, to solve some of the exercises I gave, will need the college material. That one about a convex polytope is an example. It turns out, that is not an easy exercise. In particular, surprisingly, it does not yield to the usual ideas in, say, W. Rudin, Principles of Mathematical Analysis.

My first post was partly an exaggeration: Anyone who can work all those exercises might just be admitted to, say, second year in a Ph.D. program. The exaggeration was so extreme that, sure, anyone who can work those definitely has done a lot of independent reading and is in nearly all respects quite far above college level material.

The questions you asked about the books do need to be answered, but to save length mostly I omitted answers. Actually, the omitting is okay: Finding good books is part of the work.

So, how to do that? Sure, for the high school books: (1) do an Internet search and see what the most popular/recommended books are/have been. (2) Go to the local Board of Education, talk to their subject matter specialists, see what books they recommend. (3) Go to high schools recommended as being really good and see that books they are using. (4) Anything else can think of.

For your concerns that a student could get stuck on the exercise about convex polytopes, they likely won't encounter such a problem because, as I warned, it needs some college material. But maybe the challenge of the problem would motivate a determined student to do what they could to get a solution, and that might be good.

For that question about the high school material, that material is so simple and the best books should be so well written that there should be no problems -- I never had such a problem in first year algebra, ..., solid geometry.

For a college calculus text, again, the best of those books have been so highly polished for so long that, again, no teacher should be needed. In particular, I did make clear to avoid the AP Calculus materials I regard as junk.

Then in what I wrote, the next book would be abstract algebra. I didn't get stuck there, either, but I didn't try to work all the hardest exercises. I might have included, "If in the whole book, omit, say, 10 exercises, fine. Why? Because some of the exercises might actually have errors in their statements, are placed in the book before the material needed for a solution, or for a solution actually need material outside the book and much more advanced."

With that cautionary, wise, flexible, non-rigid, and non-absolute statement, your concerns about students getting stuck and needing a good teacher shrink.

Sure, as I stated, my suggestion to solve the problem of the OP, that is, for disadvantaged students, was only for math and only for talented students. That for such students it appears, from my background, yours, and much more, that my partial solution to the terrible floundering around struggles of the OP are quite good. It's no joke: A lot of talented, disadvantaged students should be able to do this.

Gee, guys, a lot of talented, disadvantaged students do really well at basketball which in some ways is more difficult, e.g., as I mentioned, no teacher, text, or exercises. And no answers in the back of the book.

Heck, I wasn't disadvantaged, but, still I got a Ph.D. in applied math from one of the world's best research universities, and 85+% of everything I learned for that degree and 90+% of all the pure/applied math I have learned was from independent study much like I described, e.g., how I did really well with high school plane geometry, college calculus, and more. I omitted some of the details of what I did, a LOT, with linear algebra, ordinary differential equations, statistics, numerical analysis, and more.

Again, my point is: For the struggles in the OP, there is a partial solution: For a disadvantaged but talented student, go for math with a lot of independent study. Why? For one, the approach of just get a book, read the book, work the exercises can work really well there, all the way through qualifying exams in the math department at Princeton (on their Web site at least at one time they stated that courses are introductions to research by experts in the fields, no courses are given for preparation for the qualifying exams, and students are expected to prepare themselves for the exams on their own).

For the grim stuff in the OP, my suggestion is a very good to know lesson. In some good ways, it's much better than anything I knew until well into my Ph.D. Had I and/or my parents understood this lesson, then starting in about the sixth grade I could have just raced ahead and been ready for math graduate school by high school graduation.

You seem to understand some of what I wrote. If you want, then add to what I wrote, e.g., with some books, say, MathOverflow, and maybe more. And maybe there are some good massive open on-line courses (MOOCs). But I'd say to be careful: The time I looked at Khan Academy on calculus, I concluded that they didn't understand calculus well and had bad material. And I've commented on the AP Calculus material.

Uh, sure, James Simons has been running Math for America or some such. Well, there maybe some efforts there to help talented students who want to rush ahead in math and use that as a way to get free college and grad school educations. Sure, Simons was math chair at Stony Brook so knows a lot about math education. And he may be able to recommend some really good books!

Generally, a student who has done really well on their own in math deserves and maybe often can get a lot of praise and scholarship offers. Or, IIRC, good graduate departments in math have a lot more tuition scholarships than they have applications from good students.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#149
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I succeeded because I'm smart, not because I'm rich. This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. This is a major improvement over the old system where you just need to be rich. This is not a uniquely American phenomenon. Top universities in the UK and top grandes ecoles in France are also dominated by the middle class. I'm sure other countries are like that too if not worse…

concept of блат Can you explain that?

блат (blaht) means "nepotism", but used in a much more widespread way, to refer not just to jobs obtained through relations and connections, but also buying things you normally can't get in stores, getting invitations to selective summer caps for kids, etc. etc.

In the Soviet Union, things were typically inexpensive but unobtainable. So for example if you wanted a fully automatic washing machine that didn't break down after a few months, the problem wasn't that you couldn't afford it, the problem was that too few of them were imported or produced compared to the number of people who wanted them. In theory, these fancy washing machines went straight from producer/importer to distribution centers and then to regular stores to be bought by regular people. In practice, every chain in the distribution link was highly corrupt, and desirable items never reached regular stores (or, in some cases they did, but the knowledge of when exactly and in what store they'll be giving out something "good" was by itself desirable). Everybody worked intensely at cultivating connections with the right kind of people who were gatekeepers in some distribution chains, or officials in charge of those chains. Now repeat that for every kind of expensive item: furniture, cars, good clothes, shoes, some kinds of high-quality food (from caviar down to sausage), getting your kids into a good school, summer camps, vacation packages, a work trip abroad... all could be and were obtained through nepotism.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#150
post #103

Loved this article. It presents a compelling case that most colleges are providing near-equivalent education , and that the variance is mostly in selection bias. My only objection: at the end, the author takes issue with the fact that it's nearly impossible to get people to take selection bias into account when choosing where to send their kids. However, there's another possible factor that I think parents might be c…

I think the network is overrated. Everyone I've known has had the same experience - immediately after graduating, everyone gets a job, moves far away from one another, and slowly drifts apart from the friends they met in college. You'll get a similar network working at your first job. And then your second job. The group you met in college is of little consequence in the end.

Not always True. I'm in Boston and the Harvard alumni network is strong. You see connections all the time throughout various events and industries. For example, I'll meet someone in biotech (our state's largest industry) and talk about venture funding for his startup when he'll mention his friends from Harvard that can help get the right introductions.
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