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Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

fredrikdeboer.com

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Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#91
post #81
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The benefits of a higher education are more than just career path and earnings.

Perhaps they are, perhaps they aren't; I'm not a Doctor of Education, so I can't and won't claim that I know the answer to that question. My question to you, is applicable regardless: As an industry-destined BSCS student, in what ways does my future improve as a result of my education, except for career path and earnings? And if there are such (nontrivial) ways, then why should I care about them?

I can only speak from personal experience but I grew a great deal as a person while pursuing my B.S. I had experiences and met people I never would have otherwise. I very nearly stayed in my small rural town working retail and farming jobs but my education opened doors to new people and experiences. My worldview is much different now than it was before college and my life is much more fulfilling on a personal level.

While I was fortunate to select a degree that had positive economic benefits for me that is far from the only benefit. My B.S. was far from just a job training course. I studied a variety of topics and was exposed to ideas that I never considered before. I learned to think much more critically and to be more open to the world.

You should care about this because money and a job are not everything in life. I know that sounds cliche but I am finally reaching a point in my life where I understand that. My education helped me reach this point.

I really cannot say enough about how much my education means to me. Even if I did not leverage that education to start my career I would still consider it to be completely worth it.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#92
post #2

A simple thought experiment. Consider bussing kids from 'good' places to bad and from 'bad' to good. See after how long their outcomes become equivalent. Do so at different grade levels to measure the convergence time versus age of displacement. And now for the actual experiment: how do you impactfully present such results? I assume no outcome. Just the existence of an outcome. I posit that priceless data would be wo…

Such busing was court-mandated in the US for several decades. It is widely considered to have been a failure.

Amongst progressives, busing is considered one of the only effective mechanisms for reducing educational inequality.

That it only moderately alters test scores is also true, but that is far, far from being the same thing as a failure.

Busing is largely out of favor because it’s inconvenient for parents. Even I, who live in Berkeley precisely because it still buses-to-desegregate its students, was relieved when the school lottery meant my daughter would attend our nearest school.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#93
post #54

This is a good article. I wish I could force everyone who pontificates on schooling in Australia to read it. We have an enormous private school system (part govt-funded, which is gross) that can get rid of students as they please. Then they go on to verbally dump shit on the public system, where they get to dump their problem students. Nice. We also have a real fetish for selective schools, which are essentially sele…

The private school system in Australia saves the government money. Per student funding in the private system is lower than per student funding in the public system. This money is then available to spend more on government schools. It also keeps the government system honest because people can and do leave schools that don't work such as many of those in poor areas in the outer suburbs of the big cities and regional ar…

>Per student funding in the private system is lower than per student funding in the public system.

If you dump all of the special needs kids and the kids that require a ton of effort to learn into a single group then OF COURSE these kids will be more expensive to teach per student than the most motivated students who can afford outside tutors etc.

The whole premise of the article is that selection bias is a big deal.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#94
post #91
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps they are, perhaps they aren't; I'm not a Doctor of Education, so I can't and won't claim that I know the answer to that question. My question to you, is applicable regardless: As an industry-destined BSCS student, in what ways does my future improve as a result of my education, except for career path and earnings? And if there are such (nontrivial) ways, then why should I care about them?

I can only speak from personal experience but I grew a great deal as a person while pursuing my B.S. I had experiences and met people I never would have otherwise. I very nearly stayed in my small rural town working retail and farming jobs but my education opened doors to new people and experiences. My worldview is much different now than it was before college and my life is much more fulfilling on a personal level.…

> I very nearly stayed in my small rural town working retail and farming jobs but my education opened doors to new people and experiences.

So, that still falls under career path and earnings.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but without mentioning the ACT.

You seem to be taking issue with the fact that the piece could be interpreted as implying 97% of MS students didn’t want to go to college. Obviously, if that was his point, he was omitting the most important detail. His point was that if you bias the data source, you get results that you shouldn’t project onto the general population. The specific explanation of the 97% disinterest in the SAT is well and truly irrelev…

My issue was more the opposite. If the author is saying, hey, only 3% of kids take the SAT which creates selection bias, most people will immediately wonder why the low percentage. The ACT info adds support and explanation to his own argument, so it should have been included.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#96
Uh, look, guys who didn't like my post: If you read carefully and think a little, just a little, not much at all, just a very little, you will see that my post is about the only item, ray of light, for the concerns of the OP.

Look, guys: How the heck to get the students with native ability, but otherwise disadvantaged, doing well? Well, as in the OP, that's tough.

But, but, but, but, but, but, if we think a little, just a little, and actually read my post, just a little, guys, not much, we will see that I offered a solution.

And the solution is, and may I have the envelope please? Here it is: Go for math and learn to work the exercises. By that, let me clarify -- work the exercises and learn to do that. Now to be more clear, in the relevant math books, there are exercises, lots of them, and the good news for students is to learn to work them, not the students, the exercises, the exercises in the books. Did mention the exercises? Look, guys, it's the exercises. Let me spell it out for you -- e.x.e.r.c.i.s.e.s. Clear enough?

No tutors, charter schools, special schools, YouTube, courses, credits, grades, teachers.

Q. How to do that?

A. First, get a book. Second read the book. Third, and may I have the envelope, please? Here it is: Amazing. Work the exercises.

Q. How is a disadvantaged student to know this?

A. Uh, I posted it here, and maybe they read it here.

Q. But, but, but, how is a disadvantaged student to be able to work the exercises?

A. Uh, did I mention (1) get a book and (2) read the book? Sorry, I intended to mention those two.

Q. But, but, ..., how can they do anything in a poor school with a disadvantaged background?

A. Uh, did I mention work the exercises? I thought I mentioned the exercises.

Q. But, how can the disadvantaged students do that in a poor school with poor other students, with poor or no good teachers in math, and poor or no good math courses?

A. Gee, I thought I covered that here: (1) Get a book. (2) Read the book. (3) Work the exercises.

I guess I've been just too brief; I needed to write a 1 million byte PDF with 90 chapters with the first 30 on "Get a book", with the next 30 on "Read the book", and the last 30 on "Work the exercises".

Q. But, but, but, how, how, how, again, again, again, without a teacher?

A. Uh, I thought I covered that: (1) Book. (2) Read. (3) Exercises.

Q. Impossible.

A. BS. Instead, that's not impossible. Indeed, it is a good way. But no sense in my insulting a good idea -- it's the best way. I'm still insulting a good idea -- for my second step, research, it's the only way. Or, for this last, how many full profs do you see in classes trying to learn? None. They teach themselves, alone, no courses, credits, grades, teachers, books, or exercises. So, in fact, learning math is possible even without a good book and exercises.

Look, guys, that's how I learned math. Yup, there were some courses. But in grades 9-12, I mostly ignored the teachers. Instead I did (1)-(3) -- we remember those. Indeed in grade 10, plane geometry, the teacher was really ugly and offensive. So, in class I ignored her and had my head down sleeping. She thought I was a bad student. BS. On the objective state exam, I was 1-2 in the class. At my high school, of 1-2-3 on the Math SATs, I was 2.

In plane geometry, why? I worked the exercises, not the trivial ones she assigned, not the easy ones in the main part of the book, but the more difficult supplementary ones in the back of the book, 100% of them, about 10 a day. All of them. One took me from Friday afternoon to late Sunday. In class on Monday the teacher couldn't work that one; neither could anyone else.

Calculus? I went to a college I could walk too. They wouldn't let me take calculus. So, I (1) got the book, (2) read the book, (3) worked the exercises. Alone. No teacher involved.

The next summer I was taking a course in German at a good college with a good math department I was to transfer to. There was one exercise in the calculus book where I did want to ask a prof. So, I walked to the math department and asked the first math prof I'd seen. He was willing to help. Fine, one exercise. I explained I wanted to start as a sophomore that fall with their sophomore calculus, and he gave me a fast oral exam and concluded I was well prepared. Then he said that he couldn't give me credit for the freshman course without my taking it. I told him I wasn't asking for credit and just wanted to start on their sophomore calculus. I did. Made As. So, actually, I never took freshman calculus. Taught it, learned advanced calculus, applied it (once saved FedEx with it), published peer-review original research in it, but never took it.

It went on that way: Sometimes the courses helped a little, but the secret was (1)-(3). As a college senior I got a copy of the challenging Kelley, General Topology, got a reading course, used (1)-(3), gave a lecture a week to a prof, one week the material, the next the exercises, through the book. The prof helped me with NOTHING. I did fine.

Later I did much more using (1)-(3). Then I went for a Ph.D. at one of the world's best research universities. On the qualifying exams, I did the best on three of the exams, the three where I'd taught myself.

Look, guys, if a student in high school uses (1)-(3), does well with that material, wanders into the math department of a college or university, picks the first math prof they see with some gray hair, asks a few questions, shows that they can work the exercises I listed together with others in relevant books, then, dollars to donuts, they, presto, bingo, just got a scholarship as a math major at that college. No damn joke.

Look, guys, that was all 99% fully clear from just my first post.

Look, guys, some students with disadvantaged backgrounds, with no books or teachers, do really, really well at basketball. Somehow they do.

If such a student wanders into the gym at a university, stands at the three point line, and tosses in, nothing but net, 9 out of 10, can dribble, can run, can run the basic plays, then guess how they get through college? Sure, presto, bingo, they just got an athletic scholarship.

Are we learning yet?

The OP was struggling with such issues, and I just explained that for math there is a solution, (1) get a book, (2) read the book, (3) work the exercises.

What books? Okay. In high school, five books: First year algebra. Plane geometry. Second year algebra. Trigonometry. Solid geometry. There are plenty of good books, old, used, cheap.

Still in high school, plus one more: Calculus. College calculus. IMHO AP Calculus is junk, written by people who didn't understand calculus. So, do college calculus. The book should have some analytic geometry in the beginning -- that's fun material so learn that, too. There are plenty of highly polished calculus books, old, used, dirt cheap. Learn calculus from such a text. To do still better, also work about half the exercises from two other such books. Do that while still in high school, as soon as get through trig and solid.

Then take the SAT that tests knowledge in math. Get at least 700.

Walk to a college, walk into the math department, with the SAT paper showing that SAT math knowledge score, with the rest I mentioned, and get a scholarship as a math major.

How to pay for the SAT tests? Write up very neatly the solutions to the exercises I posted in this thread, mail them to James Simons at Renaissance Technologies, East Setauket, New York, and ask him to pay the Math SAT fee for you. Dollars to donuts, you will get the fee. For some of those exercises, even Simons may not have seen them or even know where to find them -- no joke, trust me!

Then in college, and no law against doing these in high school, books abstract algebra, linear algebra, advanced calculus, measure theory and functional analysis, high level probability based on measure theory, intermediate statistics and then high level statistics. Will then know the statistics in the OP much better than the author of the OP. Maybe also do optimization, linear programming, network linear programming, non-linear programming and the Kuhn-Tucker conditions. For more, read anything by D. Bertsekas at MIT and D. Luenberger at Stanford. For linear algebra, start with, say, Hoffman and Kunze (free as a PDF on the Internet) and, then, by all means, Halmos, Finite Dimensional Vector Spaces (written at the knee of von Neumann). Take the Math GRE, get 800 (I did), and apply to math grad school. Expect to go for free. I did.

For some of the exercises I posted, will have to cover much of this college material first.

Do some research, publish it, see if you can call it your Ph.D. dissertation. I did that, independently, but used something else I'd done, alone, independently, before grad school for my dissertation.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#97
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The private school system in Australia saves the government money. Per student funding in the private system is lower than per student funding in the public system. This money is then available to spend more on government schools. It also keeps the government system honest because people can and do leave schools that don't work such as many of those in poor areas in the outer suburbs of the big cities and regional ar…

This may be true that the private system as a whole saves the government money. However, I'm not sure that the last dollar of subsidies spent on the private system saves the government any money at all - i.e. would someone switch to a public school if that dollar was taken away, or would the private schools just move the cost to the consumer who would bear it, or perhaps they might cut back on the indoor shooting ran…

That's almost certainly true about the marginal value of the last bit of the subsidy and the crazy games around the formula for school funding. A simple, flat formula might be better.

Having had friends who were in bad schools but who had parents who did care it's not clear that the public school system does listen much to people when they have an almost captive audience. Having had a parent and friends who are teachers in the public school system doesn't inspire much faith that where they are broken they are easy to improve either.

The current system with all it's flaws but with distributed control and choice that saves the government money has some advantages.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#98
post #94
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can only speak from personal experience but I grew a great deal as a person while pursuing my B.S. I had experiences and met people I never would have otherwise. I very nearly stayed in my small rural town working retail and farming jobs but my education opened doors to new people and experiences. My worldview is much different now than it was before college and my life is much more fulfilling on a personal level.…

> I very nearly stayed in my small rural town working retail and farming jobs but my education opened doors to new people and experiences. So, that still falls under career path and earnings.

It doesn't, please read the rest of my post.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#99

Parents, teachers, and students are so focused on "education" as a pedigree and job pipeline that if they don't see an immediate connection between a topic and a paycheck they're like "Who cares?! Why are you wasting my kid's time on that?" When the whole thing is an exercise in competitive pedigreeing, of course it's going to be gamed. If it were more about human development, we'd be focusing on the deltas instead,…

As a student, I agree with many of the words you said but for different reasons. I've had a middle school teacher who told us about her own sex life during class. I've had a high school teacher who droned on and on about her divorce (to the point that everyone learned so little, almost no one passed the AP exams she was supposed to prepare us for) and put down religions - again, during class. College isn't a whole lo…

Like you said, most people know who's done them a service and who hasn't. If only that was what they were selling!

Just pretend to care while they're rattling on about their kids and their sex lives, meticulously regurgitate their opinions--verbatim--on the test, and watch the circle of life remain unbroken as one generation of over-credentialed under-performers passes the torch to the next.

I mean, hell, it's only four years of your life. Who's going to miss that?

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#100

Parents, teachers, and students are so focused on "education" as a pedigree and job pipeline that if they don't see an immediate connection between a topic and a paycheck they're like "Who cares?! Why are you wasting my kid's time on that?" When the whole thing is an exercise in competitive pedigreeing, of course it's going to be gamed. If it were more about human development, we'd be focusing on the deltas instead,…

They're not wrong to worry about that, it's a rough world out there and getting a good job is vastly more important to most people than "human development". Parents don't send their kids to college to become better people, they do it to make sure they have a skill that can lead to a career so they can survive on their own. Only the rich have the luxury of being concerned about something other than a job.

But the jobs to come have much less to do with your education as they will more and be be about talent and uniqueness, the exact opposite of what education does to people.

There is a world of difference between being educated and getting an education.

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