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Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

steveblank.com

271–280 of 379 posts

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its not like you're just pulling free money out of thin air by using a credit card. And it seems likely that the finance institutions behind the credit cards are offering them as a product that makes money and not as an act of goodwill. If everyone paid their credit cards off at the end of the month like they say they do, do you think credit cards would be advertised or pushed as hard as they are? The finance institu…

> If everyone paid their credit cards off at the end of the month like they say they do, do you think credit cards would be advertised or pushed as hard as they are? Yes. CC companies make money on every transaction (google keyword: interchange fee). I am also one of those people that pays off my balance every month. In fact, I use an Amex charge card that is designed to be paid off every month. If not using/having c…

> If not using/having credit cards is what works for your family, more power to you. But don't assume just because I use a CC for my purchases I'm in debt or foolish. In fact there's a whole subculture of making money off of credit card offers (see /r/churning).

I don't think people are foolish for having credit cards. And certainly hope that my comment didn't paint credit cards or cardholders as evil.

I think there people like me, who grew up thinking that having a credit card payment was just how things worked. And if you wanted to splurge on something you could just put it on the credit card and pay it all off come tax return time. (Trust me I know how ridiculous this sounds, but this is what I learned growing up. I still see my friends and family continuing this insanity).

I did a quick Google search to make sure I wasn't completely off base here. According to the American Bankers Association Credit Card Market Monitor May 2016 report [http://www.aba.com/Press/Documents/ABA2016Q2CreditCardMonito...] 42.1% of Americans are Revolvers (carry a balance and pay interest) and 29.7% of Americans are Transactors who pay their bill in full each month.

This thread is about getting outside of the tech bubble. I consider myself to be blessed having grown up in a low income bubble, it was very humbling. I also consider myself even more blessed to be trending towards the tech bubble. These two bubbles are very different and I was trying to provide some context to that difference. Hopefully this helped provide a different perspective.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#272
post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting that you identify ultra efficient hyper capitalism as the problem, then point the finger at Wall Street traders betting on mortgage backed securities. They really have nothing to do with each other. To the extent you can blame anyone for ultra efficient hyper capitalism, blame programmers. It's programmers that allowed Uber to turn the inefficient and leisurely taxi industry into the Uber/Lyft rat ra…

You speak as if customers do not also enjoy lower prices, faster delivery, lower fares, wider choices, etc. All this is also enabled by the very same platforms.

Customers also enjoy cigarettes. Which kill them.

The Information Age revolution has empowered and freed us countless ways. But it has also freed us to make bad choices. And it has empowered us to do far more damage to ourselves, our civilization, and our home than ever before.

And at the same time, we live in in world where the mechanisms of our existence - shaped by evolution and civilization are less suited to dealing with that ever before.

I'm confident that we can figure out new strategies for dealing with the world we've created, but I'm unsure how much damage we will do to ourselves first.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#273

Working class people are being subjected to ultra efficient hypercapitalism, as in Uber drivers discovering they worked for free when they need to purchase a new car. Meanwhile Wall Street has been bailed out 2 times in the last 15 years alone with monetary policy. How many people went to jail? (And they haven’t learned a thing, on the contrary and quite spectacularly so.) If you want to know where the tech bubble co…

It's interesting that you identify ultra efficient hyper capitalism as the problem, then point the finger at Wall Street traders betting on mortgage backed securities. They really have nothing to do with each other. To the extent you can blame anyone for ultra efficient hyper capitalism, blame programmers. It's programmers that allowed Uber to turn the inefficient and leisurely taxi industry into the Uber/Lyft rat ra…

> To the extent you can blame anyone for ultra efficient hyper capitalism, blame programmers.

This is as ridiculous as blaming serfs for the feudal system. You're conflating a symptom with the root cause.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#274
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self-service is a mixed bag. Yes, I like ATMs and Netflix (or Redbox). But I hate self-service at grocery stores especially if I'm buying produce etc. I'm not a big fan at home improvement stores much of the time either.

On the other hand I was listening to a podcast when I popped into boots to buy lunch. Fairly busy so there was a queue, I drew the short straw and got directed to the legacy kiosk. This means having to pause what I was listening too, lose concentration, and switch into conversation mode for no benefit at all. Ikea is simply far easier to self-scan. Back in the olden days you could scan your shopping in the supermarke…

Poor you having to interact with your environment and acknowledge briefly another human being. Perhaps we can invent an app for this.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything had been slightly different whole other sets of sperm would have fertilized the egg, so that's not such an impressive argument. Especially since all of us will be dead at some point, regardless. And funny how that "compassion" doesn't extend to the people crushed every day, the people shrieking in anguish as we speak. The question isn't just how many people are "alive", but what life are they living. What…

I'm in rather strong agreement with your post. There seems to be some brand of, I don't know, utilitarianism? That decided that any life, no matter how wretched, is equal to any other life in the evaluation of how bad things are, when this just can't be correct. > What would make someone seek power over others? Why has this defect been normalized? This one, though, I would say comes from biology. Power imbalance is t…

> This one, though, I would say comes from biology.

Yes, and no. I see big dogs never barking, because they don't need to. I see little dogs always fretting.

I think the misunderstanding might be in the phrase "seeking power". I don't mean wanting to survive, or wanting to mate. Nobody wants to be "powerless", of course. We want to not be coerced, and then to have some additional "power" to do something. We also want to be acknowledged, and so on. But that's still mostly a give and take, a live and let live -- not "either I have power over you or you over me", I think that sort of binary situation has to be produced with a lot of pain and destruction, it's not the default. Maybe that's idealistic, but at least in the human realm I think that's more or less true.

I mean the kind of hole that goes waaaay beyond "power as in opposite of powerlessness", and that never gets filled. People like Hitler are of course the most extreme examples, but still useful I think: in one sense he was a powerful man, because others obeyed his commands (or distilled wishes from his rants). But actually he was incredibly weak, he couldn't stand up to any person no matter how small as himself, he needed his role as Führer, his self-pity, the admiration, all that. And all of that didn't compensate his original issues, it compounded them. He made no difference to his own weakness, he just murdered a lot of people and then killed himself. He started out unhappy and ended up unhappier, and wreaked only murder and destruction. Actually powerful, or so weak that he had to become "powerful"?

Let's say someone is very strong: if someone tries to rob them they might break off their arm, and yay for that, but hopefully they're not going around robbing old ladies and beating up little kids. Those who do we consider sick, and when I examine their lives we always find something. Something they lack and seek outside of themselves, never getting it.

I'm sure that drive also sometimes produces works of art and inventions but on the whole, I don't think we need this. We already have curiosity, we already have ribbing on each other or topping what others do. We have better means to make art and inventions. And we have empathy, which means we can make each other gifts because it makes us happy to make others happy and get all the progress, all the fancy schmancy tech even, without any of the atrocities. There is competition with sportsmanship, which there should and always will be, and there is this cutthroat madness and lack of empathy for others because people haven't even hold of themselves. The latter has engulfed the planet, while the former is belittled as something naive, which to me is projecting the stunted development greedy people have on those who are more grounded.

Yes, we can also see this in wilderness, but not just it. Take this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/13/science/no-time-for-bullie...

> In a study appearing today in the journal PloS Biology (online at www.plosbiology.org), researchers describe the drastic temperamental and tonal shift that occurred in a troop of 62 baboons when its most belligerent members vanished from the scene. The victims were all dominant adult males that had been strong and snarly enough to fight with a neighboring baboon troop over the spoils at a tourist lodge garbage dump, and were exposed there to meat tainted with bovine tuberculosis, which soon killed them. Left behind in the troop, designated the Forest Troop, were the 50 percent of males that had been too subordinate to try dump brawling, as well as all the females and their young. With that change in demographics came a cultural swing toward pacifism, a relaxing of the usually parlous baboon hierarchy, and a willingness to use affection and mutual grooming rather than threats, swipes and bites to foster a patriotic spirit.

> Remarkably, the Forest Troop has maintained its genial style over two decades, even though the male survivors of the epidemic have since died or disappeared and been replaced by males from the outside. (As is the case for most primates, baboon females spend their lives in their natal home, while the males leave at puberty to seek their fortunes elsewhere.) The persistence of communal comity suggests that the resident baboons must somehow be instructing the immigrants in the unusual customs of the tribe.

[..]

> Dr. Sapolsky, who is renowned for his study of the physiology of stress, said that the Forest Troop baboons probably felt as good as they acted. Hormone samples from the monkeys showed far less evidence of stress in even the lowest-ranking individuals, when contrasted with baboons living in more rancorous societies.

Here's some video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Q-bB-qywJ0

(That guy also has a LOT of super interesting lectures)

I mean, we also know proteins can fold in a way and get others to fold the same that causes Alzheimer's (if I'm not mistaken). Is that useful for something? I don't know, I think sometimes shit just happens. Another thing you can find in nature is this https://www.thedodo.com/inspiring-animal-families-958705512....

Just a random kitschy link, and you might say that that's just because the instincts which are supposed to strictly serve "their own species" are just misfiring, or that they're just practicing their survival skills which doesn't hurt them in these situations. But I like to think that when the basic needs are met, when nobody is feeling threatened, even animals naturally develop all sorts of friendships. This matches what I see in daily life much more than the claim that life is war, and everybody has to be fighting or dying all the time. After all, the energy comes from the sun, and we can neither take it nor reject it, it's just there so we, life in general, used it. That is a much more fundamental basis of life on Earth IMHO.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may be right - I think about what I'd need to do to switch careers now, at 36, and it's a lot harder than when I was 19. Luckily I have a bit of a cushion, which was built up over those years as a computer programmer, so I wouldn't go homeless or anything while retraining. Many other people are not so lucky. I wonder what sort of education would be necessary to bring that opportunity to everyone, though. I was lu…

Let's say everybody got the necessary education to follow your path. Can Silicon Valley absorb the 27 million unemployed or underemployed workers in the US?

It doesn't really need to. That tremendous increase in supply would push wages to minimum wage. When devs are making minimum wage, they won't be in the bubble anymore.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#277
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the point, if the jobs keep getting automated? Why should we force people to do "public service" that robots can and will do better?

so what do you do with the people?

"We" don't do anything with people - we don't own them. They do whatever they want to do with themselves. Maybe art and crafts. Maybe some meaningless but interesting research. Maybe just live a life of pleasure. I suspect there'd be a lot of different answers. None of them are wrong.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The common theme in dystopic stories is the protagonist's unraveling unawareness of just how bad things are. Enjoy!

The irony is that many classic dystopian stories are actually written about today , the time and place where they were written, and not about some hypothetical future. 1984 was based on Orwell's experiences as a propaganda writer for Britain in WW2. Animal Farm was about the Soviet Union. Fahrenheit 451 was inspired by McCarthyism. Saruman's orcs and trollocs in Lord of the Rings were supposed to represent industry,…

Not just Jared Diamond. There's a whole school of thought (albeit very small and disrespected) built around the concept. From wiki:

>Anarcho-primitivism is an anarchist critique of the origins and progress of civilization. According to anarcho-primitivism, the shift from hunter-gatherer to agricultural subsistence gave rise to social stratification, coercion, alienation, and population growth.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#279
post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting that you identify ultra efficient hyper capitalism as the problem, then point the finger at Wall Street traders betting on mortgage backed securities. They really have nothing to do with each other. To the extent you can blame anyone for ultra efficient hyper capitalism, blame programmers. It's programmers that allowed Uber to turn the inefficient and leisurely taxi industry into the Uber/Lyft rat ra…

You speak as if customers do not also enjoy lower prices, faster delivery, lower fares, wider choices, etc. All this is also enabled by the very same platforms.

This isn't necessarily about efficiency, or economics, but rather more about power, and influence. It seems that technology has so far acted as a consolidator of power rather than a distributor of one, even though it has fundamentally changed the economics of many things by making tasks more efficient. Technology has yet to affect change in the fundamental ways we govern ourselves, and control our economics. So the problem isn't economics, but who controls it, and who profits from it.

Re: Annual note to self: most of the world exists outside the tech bubble

#280
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Did everyone suddenly forget all the un/underemployed college graduates we've got? Are they stupid, too? I think you'll find the HN consensus is that they're stupid (or were tragically misled) for going to college in a major other than computer science or engineering.

There are plenty of CS/engineering majors who end up un/underemployed too.

The UK seems to have a particular problem with this: https://www.studyinternational.com/news/uk-computer-science-...
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