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What Nassim Taleb can teach us

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Re: What Nassim Taleb can teach us

#41

Post by darawk »

jcahill wrote: post #40
darawk wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya, it's really a shame. He's got some very interesting stuff to say, but he's such a completely insufferable jackass. It's really unfortunate. I manage to ignore it and enjoy his books anyway, but he's a pretty easy person to hate.

if you start from a position of disdain instead, you'll be able to move past thinking his works have enough value to suffer the bullshit antics and be well on your way to never thinking about him again except in passing social context. taleb is ultimately just another LARPer. people get the impression that he's something more for ~4 basic reasons: 1. he's more verbal than them. 2. they don't know stats too good. so,…

I don't disagree with your assessment of his character. But I do think that his insights about risk are, while not novel per se, are interesting. Particularly his concept of 'antifragility'. Now, is that a new idea? No. And it's likely not his idea, either, and he also thinks that it applies way more broadly than it actually does. He's a jackass. But the mental model supposed by Antifragile is an interesting and useful one, and I don't regret having waded through his idiocy to obtain it.

Re: What Nassim Taleb can teach us

#42

Post by Tycho »

qubex wrote: post #38
Tycho wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taleb's approach is to put BS-vendors on full blast, especially if he sees them prominently spreading bad ideas and acting in bad faith. It's a service to all of us. The intellectual sphere is crowded enough already without the pundit class spreading misinformation.

There's something to be said for maintaining at least a semblance of decorum whilst going about his self-assigned mission to patrol the global marketplace of ideas. Sadly he just rants and raves like a ’jackass’ (as somebody else on this thread quite aptly noted). And really, what gives him the right to act as the ultimate arbiter of what is, and what is not, ’bullshit’? What of his ongoing stream of pro-Flynn, pro-S…

I don't think 'rants and raves' is an accurate characterization. His declared modus operandi is to treat the spread of BS as an act of harm to the public which should be met with hostility when the offender is someone with a platform/megaphone. His attacks are usually pretty focussed on what he considers important issues. Is it more noble to keep quiet so that you get invited to more celebrity dinner parties?

Not sure what your complaint is exactly regarding Flynn/Scaramucci, can you elaborate? I recall him expressing appreciation for Flynn's opposition to the 'moderate rebels' of Syria, and saying something about Scaramucci being a 'doer' based on his personal interactions.

With Beard, he caught her spreading/supporting obvious BS, and presented her with the genetic counter-evidence. She didn't seem to understand this, and instead of admitting that or accepting/considering the evidence, she attempted a series of high-brow dismissal manoeuvres, back-pedalling, deferring to another blog... Taleb didn't get too insulting until she referred to his "pop risk" books, at which point he hit back harder.

I mean, you could say Taleb should be more respectful, but the fact is, these people will not stop spreading their BS unless someone calls them out on it in this manner, and that's a far bigger problem. I suppose what gives him the "right" to do this is that in many domains even the experts simply do not understand statistics and probability.

Re: What Nassim Taleb can teach us

#43

Post by Tycho »

jcahill wrote: post #40
darawk wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya, it's really a shame. He's got some very interesting stuff to say, but he's such a completely insufferable jackass. It's really unfortunate. I manage to ignore it and enjoy his books anyway, but he's a pretty easy person to hate.

if you start from a position of disdain instead, you'll be able to move past thinking his works have enough value to suffer the bullshit antics and be well on your way to never thinking about him again except in passing social context. taleb is ultimately just another LARPer. people get the impression that he's something more for ~4 basic reasons: 1. he's more verbal than them. 2. they don't know stats too good. so,…

So I guess you must have lots of examples of things he has said where he was dead wrong because he was out of his depth...

Re: What Nassim Taleb can teach us

#44

Post by DanBC »

Tycho wrote: post #42
qubex wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's something to be said for maintaining at least a semblance of decorum whilst going about his self-assigned mission to patrol the global marketplace of ideas. Sadly he just rants and raves like a ’jackass’ (as somebody else on this thread quite aptly noted). And really, what gives him the right to act as the ultimate arbiter of what is, and what is not, ’bullshit’? What of his ongoing stream of pro-Flynn, pro-S…

I don't think 'rants and raves' is an accurate characterization. His declared modus operandi is to treat the spread of BS as an act of harm to the public which should be met with hostility when the offender is someone with a platform/megaphone. His attacks are usually pretty focussed on what he considers important issues. Is it more noble to keep quiet so that you get invited to more celebrity dinner parties? Not sur…

> With Beard, he caught her spreading/supporting obvious BS

She wasn't spreading bullshit. That example - a black roman soldier in roman Britain - actually happened.

> His declared modus operandi is to treat the spread of BS as an act of harm to the public which should be met with hostility

You make it sound like he never spreads bullshit, but he does, frequently. In this example he used bullshit of "we don't see the genes" - a point that got nicely debunked in a few places.

> Taleb didn't get too insulting until she referred to his "pop risk" books, at which point he hit back harder.

But those books are pop books. Why did he become unhinged after she called his pop books pop?

He's a fucking pompous blowhard.

Re: What Nassim Taleb can teach us

#45

Post by ukj »

questerzen wrote: post #29

The Black Swan has a good point to make about reliance on over-simplified mathematical models, but Taleb's macho anti-intellectualism is ultimately nihilistic since he denies even the possibility of achieving a deeper mathematical understanding of risk. But what I really have a problem with is that he has created a band of idiot Twitter acolytes who can be counted on to heap brainless abuse at anyone who Taleb choose…

I followed the drama around it and my end conclusion (to paraphrase somebody's tweet)

Mary Beard is respectable, well educated and gracious. Taleb is right.

Re: What Nassim Taleb can teach us

#46

Post by jcahill »

darawk wrote: post #41
jcahill wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you start from a position of disdain instead, you'll be able to move past thinking his works have enough value to suffer the bullshit antics and be well on your way to never thinking about him again except in passing social context. taleb is ultimately just another LARPer. people get the impression that he's something more for ~4 basic reasons: 1. he's more verbal than them. 2. they don't know stats too good. so,…

I don't disagree with your assessment of his character. But I do think that his insights about risk are, while not novel per se, are interesting. Particularly his concept of 'antifragility'. Now, is that a new idea? No. And it's likely not his idea, either, and he also thinks that it applies way more broadly than it actually does. He's a jackass. But the mental model supposed by Antifragile is an interesting and usef…

Thing is that he picks an organizing principle⁽¹⁾ and rides it into the ground, through the center of the earth, and back out the other side until eventually de-emphasizing it in favor of some new organizing principle more attractive to current audiences.

That is: there are geological layers of taleb based entirely in reader-response. He can't make his subject matter audience-invariant, because how it plays determines its significance to him: it's a feedback loop of bullshit by design. Right now all his acolytes can manage to sputter forth is acronymized slogans like SITG (skin in the game), so that's what he plays up. Formerly it was stuff like antifragility, etc. It just keeps devolving.

____________________

¹ http://enwp.org/organizing_principle

Re: What Nassim Taleb can teach us

#47

Post by darawk »

jcahill wrote: post #46
darawk wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with your assessment of his character. But I do think that his insights about risk are, while not novel per se, are interesting. Particularly his concept of 'antifragility'. Now, is that a new idea? No. And it's likely not his idea, either, and he also thinks that it applies way more broadly than it actually does. He's a jackass. But the mental model supposed by Antifragile is an interesting and usef…

Thing is that he picks an organizing principle⁽¹⁾ and rides it into the ground, through the center of the earth, and back out the other side until eventually de-emphasizing it in favor of some new organizing principle more attractive to current audiences. That is: there are geological layers of taleb based entirely in reader-response. He can't make his subject matter audience-invariant, because how it plays determine…

> Thing is that he picks an organizing principle⁽¹⁾ and rides it into the ground, through the center of the earth, and back out the other side until eventually de-emphasizing it in favor of some new organizing principle more attractive to current audiences.

I don't disagree, but I think that the organizing principles he's settled upon (by whatever process) are interesting.

Re: What Nassim Taleb can teach us

#48

Post by jcahill »

darawk wrote: post #47
jcahill wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thing is that he picks an organizing principle⁽¹⁾ and rides it into the ground, through the center of the earth, and back out the other side until eventually de-emphasizing it in favor of some new organizing principle more attractive to current audiences. That is: there are geological layers of taleb based entirely in reader-response. He can't make his subject matter audience-invariant, because how it plays determine…

> Thing is that he picks an organizing principle⁽¹⁾ and rides it into the ground, through the center of the earth, and back out the other side until eventually de-emphasizing it in favor of some new organizing principle more attractive to current audiences. I don't disagree, but I think that the organizing principles he's settled upon (by whatever process) are interesting.

the poetics of successful sophistry is a potential research topic in its own right, so sure

Re: What Nassim Taleb can teach us

#49

Post by darawk »

jcahill wrote: post #48
darawk wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Thing is that he picks an organizing principle⁽¹⁾ and rides it into the ground, through the center of the earth, and back out the other side until eventually de-emphasizing it in favor of some new organizing principle more attractive to current audiences. I don't disagree, but I think that the organizing principles he's settled upon (by whatever process) are interesting.

the poetics of successful sophistry is a potential research topic in its own right, so sure

It is possible to find a man to be a jackass, and have a few interesting ideas simultaneously. You haven't attempted to criticize any of his actual ideas, just his presentation of them. A criticism I agree with, though in so doing you're really committing his own primary sin: Trying to defeat substance by criticizing style. If you've got specific gripes with his math, i'd be curious to hear that, or criticisms of his actual ideas i'd be curious to hear those too.

Re: What Nassim Taleb can teach us

#50

Post by jcahill »

darawk wrote: post #49
jcahill wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the poetics of successful sophistry is a potential research topic in its own right, so sure

It is possible to find a man to be a jackass, and have a few interesting ideas simultaneously. You haven't attempted to criticize any of his actual ideas, just his presentation of them. A criticism I agree with, though in so doing you're really committing his own primary sin: Trying to defeat substance by criticizing style. If you've got specific gripes with his math, i'd be curious to hear that, or criticisms of his…

Trouble there is simple: academically, he hasn't really innovated anything substantial enough to bother discussing in isolation. I mean that in a purely descriptive sense.

Just take a look at his google scholar⁽¹⁾ or crossref search⁽²⁾ hits and gloss over the books, republications of books, translations of books. What remains are miscellaneous vagaries about tail risk etc. In particular, lots of reviews / position papers that amount to him just setting up strawmen to tear down.

That contrarian browbeating is what drove him to prominence. And in sole-author article form, the attendant research laziness manifests itself as junk like this⁽³⁾ thing that's lower quality discussion of the subject matter than a lot of replication forum posts.

____________________

¹ https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=64BtMdsAAAAJ

² https://search.crossref.org/?q=%2BNassim+%2BTaleb&type=Journ...

³ Taleb, N.N., 2016. The Meta-Distribution of Standard P-Values. SSRN. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2834266

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