Distribution of household debt is to significant to look at the health of the economy in this way, especially so when you look at how the GDP is generated and who is generating it.
Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
21–30 of 338 posts
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#22Oh dang ! That household debt sure is scary. Where's the real time data sourced from?
> U.S economic risk as of ...
With the click of a button, may be also allow a view of where it was at a point in history...? i.e. U.S economic risk as of [insert point in history]
Great work so far. Simple and usable.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#23Market Volatility section:
Current risk:
NaN / 10
"Calm waters"
(I'm using Edge)
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#24Oh dang ! That household debt sure is scary. Where's the real time data sourced from? > U.S economic risk as of ... With the click of a button, may be also allow a view of where it was at a point in history...? i.e. U.S economic risk as of [insert point in history] Great work so far. Simple and usable.
This is a great idea. Might implement some kind of timeline that you can scroll through.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#25The page strives solely on it's nice graphics, and sensationalist wording. There is little to no content of substance.
For example the page calculates "Market Overvaluation" as the US stock market value divided by the yearly US GDP. Hilarious.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wouldn't worry about student loan debt being a problem. It's very likely that they're going to get a bailout before a bubble bursts. Where on earth did I come up with this, you ask? Easy - I just paid my student loans off last week. It's only natural that everyone else will now get bailed out! Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something. Even if it doesn't have a direct effect any time soo…
> Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something the thing we have to do is not borrow money we can't repay. capitalism is a distributed system. borrowing money you can't repay is a broken local protocol. don't try to fix that with anything but fixing it locally.
Money is not as important as living a full life. Sometimes trade offs must be made
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#27I love the design and phrasing. This is just a well-done website. It would be really interesting to see your collapse pyramid over time. How did it look in 2000? 2008?
This is a good idea. I'm going to implement it as a timeline I think.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#28Really cool idea. As someone that hasn't really investigated the market indicators for collapse this is really eye opening. It really breaks things down into plain english. Hope this goes to the top for some rational/interesting conversation.
Don't put too much weight into his analysis. There are folks who spend their entire professional careers studying the economy and they haven't, on average, ever correctly predicted how the stock market will perform.
I don't want to knock on OP's analysis here, but it's important to remember the famous quote (maybe by Keynes?), "The market can remain irrational much longer than you will remain solvent"
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#29I feel as though the "stock market" following the 2008 crisis has become further insulated from the larger economies fundamentals. wages can continue to not keep up with inflation, savings rate continues it's downward slide, household debt service payments consume an ever increasing slice of disposable income, etc... all the while the type of dramatic dislocation event similar to 1929, 1987 are unlikely to occur. the market "circuit breakers" ensure any crash is a slow moving trend and not a single calamitous event.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#30What about student loan debt, how does that factor into the economy or the stock market being affected? Right now student loan debt is at 1.4 trillion source: https://www.debt.org/students/
As another commenter has said, student loan debt is included in household debt.