Says "Stock market is closed" at 10:45AM EDT. Is it really?
Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
11–20 of 338 posts
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#12Could the fact that a lot of US companies book profits overseas and keep them there for tax reasons foil your assumption about the meaning of a high US market cap:domestic GDP ratio?
That is already implicit in the Efficient Market Hypothesis' valuation of the total market capitalisation of stocks (that is part of the reason for which the total value of the stock market exceeds GDP).
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#13[deleted]
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#14Could the fact that a lot of US companies book profits overseas and keep them there for tax reasons foil your assumption about the meaning of a high US market cap:domestic GDP ratio?
Good point. I'd wager that US listed companies' share of profit and/or income growth outside of the US has increased since the 70s/80s. I'd at least have a global crosscheck of some kind.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#15What about student loan debt, how does that factor into the economy or the stock market being affected? Right now student loan debt is at 1.4 trillion source: https://www.debt.org/students/
I wouldn't worry about student loan debt being a problem. It's very likely that they're going to get a bailout before a bubble bursts. Where on earth did I come up with this, you ask? Easy - I just paid my student loans off last week. It's only natural that everyone else will now get bailed out!
Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something. Even if it doesn't have a direct effect any time soon, it's going to have an indirect effect as our generation (I'm some kind of X-ennial, apparently, but let's just say everyone 20-40) continues to replace retiring boomers in the economy. If we're all saddled with non-dischargable debt, it's going to hurt the housing and consumer spending segments.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#16What about student loan debt, how does that factor into the economy or the stock market being affected? Right now student loan debt is at 1.4 trillion source: https://www.debt.org/students/
Student loan debt factors into "Household Debt".
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#17A high VIX would indicate that the market is crash-ing.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#18A site like this seems dangerous at best. Nobody can predict the stock market. Nobody can predict when a stock market is more likely to crash. This site tries to indicate otherwise. Whatever causes the crash it probably won't be one of the indicators listed here.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#19What about student loan debt, how does that factor into the economy or the stock market being affected? Right now student loan debt is at 1.4 trillion source: https://www.debt.org/students/
I wouldn't worry about student loan debt being a problem. It's very likely that they're going to get a bailout before a bubble bursts. Where on earth did I come up with this, you ask? Easy - I just paid my student loans off last week. It's only natural that everyone else will now get bailed out! Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something. Even if it doesn't have a direct effect any time soo…
> Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something
the thing we have to do is not borrow money we can't repay. capitalism is a distributed system. borrowing money you can't repay is a broken local protocol. don't try to fix that with anything but fixing it locally.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#20I love the design and phrasing. This is just a well-done website.
It would be really interesting to see your collapse pyramid over time. How did it look in 2000? 2008?