One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015) • Hacker News Board

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#101

Post by Finnucane » Tue, Aug 01, 2017, 1:45 PM UTC

mbgilliland wrote: post #96

dragonwriter wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With rationality on your side, how could you lose? You could lose because the rational choice model does not accurately model human behavior in the real world; people don't act based on perfect information, in part because even when presented with correct information, they are likely to reject it if it doesn't fit their pre-existing world view.

That has very little to do with the rational choice model. Rational choice agrees that people don't act on perfect information. It also agrees that even when given good information, individuals don't necessarily believe it. All RCT really boils down to is the fairly uncontroversial statement that people act in accordance with their actual preferences (even if their preferences should be different, the actions are not…

So 'rational choice theory' should be called 'fleeting whim choice theory.'

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#102

Post by sharemywin » Tue, Aug 01, 2017, 1:45 PM UTC

sharemywin wrote: post #99

Top19 wrote: post #86

All MLMs are scams. I hate using the term pyramid schemes, because if you use that term all of the MLM apologists will start cranking out very long-winded philosophical definitions of pyramid schemes that obscure the true point. The MLM "model" can be summarized thusly: - 1. Give people pretty good business advice from a host of good business books - 2. Give people a very positive exciting environment - 3. Give peopl…

To me you're kind of misusing the term scam. To me it's no more of a scam than buying a stock at the wrong time or working for a startup with options or any affiliate program. A lot of the time the products are really good at first they're usually hard to sell in retail and then usually the market catches up at the retail level and the product becomes a commodity. And at the same time the market saturates with reps a…

tupperware, avon, Amway's cleaners were all great products in their day(expensive but some consumers aren't cheap, Think Coach purses - retail example of that kind of product).

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#103

Post by ethbro » Tue, Aug 01, 2017, 1:47 PM UTC

sumedh wrote: post #64

gnu8 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like a sure thing to short the piss out of an enterprise like this and wage a comprehensive campaign of activism and consumer education against it. With rationality on your side, how could you lose?

> With rationality on your side, how could you lose? Do you think rationality can win when the President of the United States says that global warming is a Chinese hoax.

France? Maybe we've come full circle, and it's time for it to lead a second Enlightenment.

And to be accurate, I believe Trump's current position is "global warming is happening, caused by humans, but Paris unfairly advantages other nations over the US."

Which is how all climate agreements look when you're trying to get buy in from developing economies... but at least it's better than hoaxism.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#104

Post by sharemywin » Tue, Aug 01, 2017, 1:48 PM UTC

sharemywin wrote: post #99

Top19 wrote: post #86

All MLMs are scams. I hate using the term pyramid schemes, because if you use that term all of the MLM apologists will start cranking out very long-winded philosophical definitions of pyramid schemes that obscure the true point. The MLM "model" can be summarized thusly: - 1. Give people pretty good business advice from a host of good business books - 2. Give people a very positive exciting environment - 3. Give peopl…

To me you're kind of misusing the term scam. To me it's no more of a scam than buying a stock at the wrong time or working for a startup with options or any affiliate program. A lot of the time the products are really good at first they're usually hard to sell in retail and then usually the market catches up at the retail level and the product becomes a commodity. And at the same time the market saturates with reps a…

working for uber, opening a restaurant, start a music or sports career. All generally pretty bad ideas, but not really scams)

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#105

Post by opportune » Tue, Aug 01, 2017, 1:55 PM UTC

sharemywin wrote: post #99

Top19 wrote: post #86

All MLMs are scams. I hate using the term pyramid schemes, because if you use that term all of the MLM apologists will start cranking out very long-winded philosophical definitions of pyramid schemes that obscure the true point. The MLM "model" can be summarized thusly: - 1. Give people pretty good business advice from a host of good business books - 2. Give people a very positive exciting environment - 3. Give peopl…

To me you're kind of misusing the term scam. To me it's no more of a scam than buying a stock at the wrong time or working for a startup with options or any affiliate program. A lot of the time the products are really good at first they're usually hard to sell in retail and then usually the market catches up at the retail level and the product becomes a commodity. And at the same time the market saturates with reps a…

Often with MLMs you have to buy the product yourself first and then sell it. So people end up buying $1000 worth of energy drinks they can never sell, because their "employers" fed them so much bullshit about it being easy money. I would call that a scam

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#106

Post by ajuc » Tue, Aug 01, 2017, 1:56 PM UTC

monochromatic wrote: post #93

markdown wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or USA and climate change denialism and the anti-vaxers.

Climate change skepticism does not belong in the same bucket as anti-vaccination.

Why? Both beliefs are held against current scientific consensus and have only a few supporting studies, while vast majority of studies support the contrary.

You could argue that technically "climate change scepticism" only means you don't know, but in practice climate change sceptics argue for political actions (or inaction) basing on their (lack of) beliefs.

Similarly I can be anti-vacc without claiming "vaccines cause autism". just claiming "I'm not sure what they cause, so just to be sure don't do it".

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#107

Post by creaghpatr » Tue, Aug 01, 2017, 1:56 PM UTC

Illniyar wrote: post #61

This raises an interesting notions - can shorting be an effective option for funding legal/social action against a misbehaving company? So far there has only been two ways to fund social activism against companies - donations and feeds on class-action lawsuits.

Seems like it could be the other way around- legal/social action against a company as a strategy for shorting.

Of course, they (the allegedly misled class) deserved to at least get a trial and a ruling, which at that scale require money and press coverage. But Ackman turned it into spectacle, which probably is what motivated Carl Icahn to btchslap his short.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#108

Post by ethbro » Tue, Aug 01, 2017, 1:59 PM UTC

samdoidge wrote: post #70

gnu8 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like a sure thing to short the piss out of an enterprise like this and wage a comprehensive campaign of activism and consumer education against it. With rationality on your side, how could you lose?

Aristotle realised the rational argument does not always win a long time, and then wrote Poetics.

I always thought there should be a "Being an Adult" mandatory course in US grade school, and one section should be "defense against rhetoric."

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#109

Post by ethbro » Tue, Aug 01, 2017, 2:04 PM UTC

divenorth wrote: post #53

kbenson wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sounds exactly like every other industry. I don't see how it's any different. You were likely downvoted because you were far too strong for how general your statement was and presented it without evidence. As stated, it doesn't really contribute much. Worded as "sounds like many different industries. For example..." and followed with some examples would be interesting. As it is, it can be parsed as "business is cor…

Thanks for being the kind soul to explain this to me. I'm still pretty new to hacker news.

The meta around voting is complex and rarely discussed. Kind of like Fight Club.

Generally though, think of "contributing substantively to the discussion" (e.g. providing facts, ideally sourced [1], relevant personal experience, or interesting and neutrally worded questions) as a high good. And tossing around memes, ad hoc attacks, argumentative language without facts, and "contentless" comments as the lowest bad.

And as parent mentioned, the stronger the claim, the more it behooves you to cite a source.

In general, try and write the kind of comments you want to read & treat everyone with respect. :) And hopefully others will do the same!

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#110

Post by Top19 » Tue, Aug 01, 2017, 2:08 PM UTC

Vanayad wrote: post #100

Top19 wrote: post #86

All MLMs are scams. I hate using the term pyramid schemes, because if you use that term all of the MLM apologists will start cranking out very long-winded philosophical definitions of pyramid schemes that obscure the true point. The MLM "model" can be summarized thusly: - 1. Give people pretty good business advice from a host of good business books - 2. Give people a very positive exciting environment - 3. Give peopl…

Well, I know people that made a living and brought up two children with the help of Herbalife, so it is not THAT bad. It is not easy, and not a good job, on those points I do agree though.

What's with all the survivorship bias in these responses? For every person you know that's made money in an MLM, that mathematically means there were 1,000 people AT MINIMUM below them who were scammed somewhere around $300 to usually $20,000 (when you're poor that can be 3 months worth of savings and the difference between taking multiple overdraft hits + a title loan) to live a hijacked version of the American Dream. The burned relationships are even more significant, again especially with people in poverty where family is everything. Look at "A Framework for Understanding to Poverty" by Ruby Payne for more on this.

Btw of course a scam will make some people successful, that's what scams do, take people's money. If someone isn't getting rich, it isn't a scam in the end.

That being said, MLMs are weird and quite honestly conceptually bizarre to reason through. They thrive on this and they operate in the gaps and blindspots of human reasoning.

Here's another way to describe MLMs:

-1). They get you hyped up on success and by borrowing the best of innovations that were mastered by Evangelical churches and various performing arts over the last 200 years (see Aimee Mcpherson, the amazing female preacher from LA and the inspiration for the male preacher in "There Will Be Blood" with Daniel Day Lewis).

-2). By pretending to have a business they can sell you a $500 or so "gold" level business kit to launch your business.

-3). They then get you so hyped up you talk to all of your friends, reluctantly 2 or 3 of them buy. Now the MLM has made $500 + $1000 or so from your friends. That means you as a "mark" has been taken for $1500.

-4). Rinse and repeat with your other friends, burning social circles and harvesting the ashes as you go.