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One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

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Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#51

Post by kbenson »

divenorth wrote: post #43
Overtonwindow wrote: post #31

I use to work in legislative affairs for the natural health industry. It's all one big scam. I try to explain it like this: Company A sells natural remedies, etc. Company B is a news organization which reports on natural health remedies, and also advertises for those companies, et. Nonprofit C is a consumer watchdog organization that investigates and promotes natural health. They are supported by the natural health i…

Sounds exactly like every other industry. I don't see how it's any different. Edit: Seriously? I'm getting down voted. Look I don't care how much you hate the natural products industry but every industry has sleazy business practices. They are not alone. Edit2: For example I work in the entertainment industry and the awards are all made up, the news is mostly just to get attention and they have politicians in their b…

> Sounds exactly like every other industry. I don't see how it's any different.

You were likely downvoted because you were far too strong for how general your statement was and presented it without evidence. As stated, it doesn't really contribute much.

Worded as "sounds like many different industries. For example..." and followed with some examples would be interesting. As it is, it can be parsed as "business is corrupt."

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#52

Post by kbenson »

diogenescynic wrote: post #39
gnu8 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like a sure thing to short the piss out of an enterprise like this and wage a comprehensive campaign of activism and consumer education against it. With rationality on your side, how could you lose?

>With rationality on your side, how could you lose? Hahahhaha. Great joke. Sadly, there are and probably always will be a lot of ignorant/gullible people. As PT Barnum said, "there's a sucker born every minute."

Given global population growth and birth trends, I wonder if we've reached a sucker every second yet...

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#53

Post by divenorth »

kbenson wrote: post #51
divenorth wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds exactly like every other industry. I don't see how it's any different. Edit: Seriously? I'm getting down voted. Look I don't care how much you hate the natural products industry but every industry has sleazy business practices. They are not alone. Edit2: For example I work in the entertainment industry and the awards are all made up, the news is mostly just to get attention and they have politicians in their b…

> Sounds exactly like every other industry. I don't see how it's any different. You were likely downvoted because you were far too strong for how general your statement was and presented it without evidence. As stated, it doesn't really contribute much. Worded as "sounds like many different industries. For example..." and followed with some examples would be interesting. As it is, it can be parsed as "business is cor…

Thanks for being the kind soul to explain this to me. I'm still pretty new to hacker news.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#55

Post by unit91 »

anilshanbhag wrote: post #2

John Oliver discussing Herbalife https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6MwGeOm8iI Bill Ackmann on Herbalife https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQc6L4ieMwo Almost 60% of their distributors were latinos ( http://articles.latimes.com/2013/feb/15/business/la-fi-herba... ). The lengthy presentation countering Pershing Square's accusations which contained this fact ( http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-48ZAJ9/229776353...…

> Almost 60% of their distributors were latinos

Uh. What? Can you clarify your point here?

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#56

Post by corporateslave2 »

markdown wrote: post #42
coaxial wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> with rationality on your side, how could you lose? Look at south Africa, multi vitamins, and hiv/aids denialism. It's pretty fascinating, human toll aside.

Or USA and climate change denialism and the anti-vaxers.

Climate change is not statistically significant

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#57

Post by ringaroundthetx »

lstyls wrote: post #14
ringaroundthetx wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Herbalife was too rich for the FTC to find it an illegal financial scheme, subsequently and simultaneously Bill Ackman got squeezed pretty hard on that and several of his other bets. He still has a group of followers because he's rich and has a nice pedigree, but he has fallen from glory pretty hard and his calls don't matter anymore. One of the best short sells these days is to short everything in his portfolio when…

Honest question: how the heck do you time a margin call for a whale like that apart from knowing someone on the inside?

The fund's holdings are known, and the fund manager's dispositions are easily inferred by how much they talk about something. ie. How married they are to a position.

So for example, when Valeant Pharmaceauticals was tanking from its highs of $220, all the way to $16, after Bill Ackman defended it, doubled down, joined the board, and bought calls, and then admitted to not having more funds available. You just short other things in his portfolio, or at least short them on the expectation that other people are going to short.

Its fun. I do "proxy trades" a lot, where I trade a temporarily correlated asset, while the market focuses on a different asset.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#59

Post by prostoalex »

blunte wrote: post #16
williamscales wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Explain to me the case that it could be considered as such?

When you are such a big name in finance, your public statements can be judged as attempts to influence the market. And if you furthermore pay lobbyists, do advertising, and give many presentations, it is clearly going to have an impact.

Activist shorting is a cottage industry and has its fair share of participants on both sides of the bet. People like Ackman or Cohen or Left are far from being followed and blindly copied, like Warren Buffett or even Jim Cramer.

The followers realize that the shorts act first and go public second, therefore any potential upside is likely to be already priced in, leaving very slim pickings for a tag-along investor.

The opponents at the same time will try to orchestrate a short squeeze, and they are in somewhat more beneficial position. Not only the short squeezers act on public information (the size of the short interest), they need to find just one factual error in short's thesis and then play that up. The activist short, once public, has to be 100% right with each and every statement - any sign of weakness is just an open invitation to join a short squeeze.

Re: One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of Herbalife (2015)

#60

Post by jacobush »

CyberDildonics wrote: post #44
gnu8 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like a sure thing to short the piss out of an enterprise like this and wage a comprehensive campaign of activism and consumer education against it. With rationality on your side, how could you lose?

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" -Keynes

Don't believe all quotes on the internet - Benjamin Franklin
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