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Hypnotized by Hyperloop

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Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#241

Post by erikpukinskis »

dalbasal wrote: post #74
gutnor wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why commute ? Remote working is a thing and everything the topic comes up, something that a significant part of HN is already enjoying. No need to pour billions in public transport. Also companies have proven that they are more than willing to outsource everywhere, hiring people anywhere. There are reason they still hire in very expensive place like SF. You bet that it is a problem that will go away at some point, an…

Well... observable trends atm is that physical location still matters. Remote work is more common, but at the same time major centres for tech industries (SF famously, but also others around the world) are pulling in more residents who are going there for work Getting people to workplaces is a thing we need in 2017, and I expect in 2027. Beyond that, who knows.

> observable trends atm is that physical location still matters

Sure, we're still in the shallow part of the disruption curve. The real world (established player) has two features that Skype/Hangouts/Slack/VR (disruptive player) can't do yet:

- eye contact

- a semi-conscious background channel

Group video calls are confusing without eye contact. You can't really pay half attention to Slack. You read, or you don't read.

But within 5 years or so you should be able to buy a $400 VR headset which lets you make eye contact with someone, and place a semi-interesting conversation between coworkers in the background behind your virtual desk.

And of course the VR workplace has many benefits which will never be replicated by a real world workplace. It's a classic disruptive technology. Small market now. Will eat almost all of office space within 20 years.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#242

Post by erikpukinskis »

rjeli wrote: post #211
gutnor wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why commute ? Remote working is a thing and everything the topic comes up, something that a significant part of HN is already enjoying. No need to pour billions in public transport. Also companies have proven that they are more than willing to outsource everywhere, hiring people anywhere. There are reason they still hire in very expensive place like SF. You bet that it is a problem that will go away at some point, an…

I would be lonely doing remote work. I prefer to go to an office and interact with people every day. Sometimes I don't want to interact with them, but I wouldn't want to spend 8 hours a day alone in my house. Coworking spaces might work. I haven't tried it, but I imagine its different interacting with people who aren't relevant to what you're doing all day.

You won't be alone, you'll be in a virtual office overlooking the Swiss alps, and all of your coworkers will have a mute button.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#243

Post by erikpukinskis »

ethn wrote: post #95
methodin wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Diverted through what means? Are they somehow subsidizing his ventures apart from the electric vehicle subsidy?

Through avoiding externality payment due to the cost of "the tragedy of the commons" to the tax payer, as well as the massive subsidies to SolarCity, Tesla, and Space X. It is suspect to believe Hyperloop won't be massively subsidized as well, given his track record.

Tesla doesn't benefit financially from the tax credits, they mostly benefit other automakers.

SpaceX doesn't have subsidies, it has contracts.

Elon Musk isn't any more reliant on subsidies than anyone else. How do you feel about the Koch brothers? They receive far more government assistance than Musk. Look anywhere else in the energy industry and you'll find more government assistance than what Elon receives.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#244

Post by [deleted] »

mamon wrote: post #129
puranjay wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with not taking Musk seriously is that his track records shows you can, indeed, take him seriously. His company made a rocket capable of re-entry ffs

As someone else in this thread noticed: so far all Musk did was incremental improvements to existing technologies (electric cars, autopilot, space rockets). He has no track of record of actually creating a new technology.

[deleted]

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#245

Post by erikpukinskis »

mamon wrote: post #163
jacquesm wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but you should compare SpaceX with other space entities and Tesla with other car manufacturers. Apples to apples. Comparing Tesla or SpaceX with Google, Amazon or Microsoft is pointless, they are in completely different fields.

But the point is: both Tesla and SpaceX already had their respective fields, with established players that proved the whole thing at least possible despite being far from perfection. Google or Amazon pioneered completely new fields, something that Musk is just now trying to do with Hyperloop

> established players that proved the whole thing at least possible

Who landed an orbital booster before SpaceX?

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#246

Post by doctorstupid »

ClassyJacket wrote: post #216
mamon wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so he is a great entrepreneur: knows how to run the company to be profitable, low cost, high revenue, knows how to advertise, how to make a lot of hype. Those are great skills, but have nothing to do with technology. There are many companies that are better at creating new, disrupting technologies: Google with all of its AI research and Android, Amazon with a cloud platform, even Microsoft with Windows and Office…

How can you possibly call Tesla not disruptive? They're a shining example of a disruptive company. They're turning the automotive industry on its head. No other company has made any comparable, widespread, viable attempt at a good electric car.

Going by global sales, I'd say a more affordable EV like the Leaf has been more disruptive than any Tesla.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#247

Post by Turing_Machine »

haspok wrote: post #238
Turing_Machine wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Europe lives in the future compared to the USA." Europe is the size of a postage stamp compared to the USA (or even worse, Canada). Oregon is larger than the UK. Texas is larger than France. Alaska is larger than all of Western Europe.

This is false. Europe North-South is comparable to the US East-West coast distance. Europe East-West is comparable to the US North-South. The US has more land mass (and there is Alaska, which is the jolly joker card here - we can counterbalance this with the russian-speaking regions of the European continent, it is debatable whether they are "Europe" or not), let's say the lower 48 US is maybe two times the area of "…

No, it is not.

Area of Oregon: 254,806 km2

Area of UK: 242,495 km2

Area of Texas: 696,241 km2

Area of France: 643,801 km2

Area of Alaska: 1,717,856 km2

Area of Western Europe: depends on which definition you use. But smaller than Alaska by most.

"Europe is also much more densely populated."

Yes, it is. It is smaller and more densely populated, which means that rail transportation makes sense (note that you also see rail transportation in the more densely populated regions of the United States, such as the BosWash Corridor, Chicagoland, etc.)

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#248

Post by solatic »

rtpg wrote: post #51
solatic wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I could get to hong kong in 15 minutes, I might go there this afternoon for some dumplings. And that's a good thing, because it increases the amount of demand available to businesses. The more potential customers you have, the more product you can make to sell to that market, and the more product you can make, the better your economies of scale. The large population of New York is what allows it to offer so many…

counterpoint: it's also a bad thing because society functioning now becomes more reliant on this transportation method. It destroys "walkable" spaces and encourages centralization of services, when a more uniform spread of services across space is in fact healthier. I heard of a study recently that showed that cities in Japan that ended up getting Shinkansen stations ended up almost always shrinking, because people g…

> a study recently that showed that cities in Japan that ended up getting Shinkansen stations ended up almost always shrinking

I welcome you linking to this study, because a naive explanation for parts of Japan shrinking would be Japan's overall population decline (i.e. shrinking demographics). So unless the study controlled for that, I'm rather disinclined to think that the Shinkansen by itself caused areas outside Tokyo to shrink.

If anything, centralization happens because of the difficulty of transportation. Highways were what drove "white flight" to the American suburbs. Jammed highways and hellish commutes are driving gentrification.

And centralization improves walkability, if anything. If I need to take a train to get into the city, then I need the city to be walkable after I get there, because I don't have a car with me anymore.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#249

Post by solatic »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #98
solatic wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I could get to hong kong in 15 minutes, I might go there this afternoon for some dumplings. And that's a good thing, because it increases the amount of demand available to businesses. The more potential customers you have, the more product you can make to sell to that market, and the more product you can make, the better your economies of scale. The large population of New York is what allows it to offer so many…

OTOH, it reduces the amount of such businesses, since each one now has to compete with many more for the same customer base. In the limit (cheap teleporters) this leads to what we have on the Internet - winner-takes-all global competition.

On the contrary, such competition drives business to hyper-specialize, in order to carve out its own market niche. There was so little competition in Ye Olde Medieval European Village that you didn't have a choice what kind of meat or metal you could buy - there was a guild-protected artisan, and what he made was what was available for sale. Now you have a choice between organic and free-range (usually both) and between Game of Thrones replicas and Lord of the Rings replicas.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#250

Post by epsylon »

Turing_Machine wrote: post #189
kome wrote: post #42

Hyperloop is such a bad idea on so many levels. Mass transportation is the future: trains, suburban trains and metros. Not cars or "mini metros for cars". Super fast trains are already there. Europe lives in the future compared to the USA.

"Europe lives in the future compared to the USA." Europe is the size of a postage stamp compared to the USA (or even worse, Canada). Oregon is larger than the UK. Texas is larger than France. Alaska is larger than all of Western Europe.

China has better rail infrastructure than the US, and is much bigger as well.
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