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Hypnotized by Hyperloop

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Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#161

Post by dalbasal »

jonstewart wrote: post #133
dalbasal wrote: post #18

One feature of the transport market (from a mile high view) is that demand is almost infinite. If you can get 40kms in 45 minutes, then you can live within 40 miles of work and commute in that time. If you could go 400kms, then that becomes your commuting radius. We've seen people spread this way as earlier mechanized transport was invented. IE, average commute times didn't go down because of faster transport, distan…

One feature of classical mechanics is that the world must abide by it. With transportation, the vehicle must start and stop at a speed of zero. The energy required to accelerate the vehicle to its top speed and then decelerate it to back to zero increases quadratically as the top speed increases. Another feature of classical mechanics is, of course, that Aristotelian concept of kenophobia, or horror vacui, or resinte…

That's a supply problem.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#162

Post by dalbasal »

jacquesm wrote: post #147
dalbasal wrote: post #18

One feature of the transport market (from a mile high view) is that demand is almost infinite. If you can get 40kms in 45 minutes, then you can live within 40 miles of work and commute in that time. If you could go 400kms, then that becomes your commuting radius. We've seen people spread this way as earlier mechanized transport was invented. IE, average commute times didn't go down because of faster transport, distan…

> If I could get to hong kong in 15 minutes, I might go there this afternoon for some dumplings. I doubt you would because the cost of the trip would make that the most expensive food you ever ate.

That's true.

But most things people consume don't scale that way. You only need so much clothes or square footage of house. Some people might get extreme given infinite amounts of stuff, but most won't have that much more of it than many people have currently.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#163

Post by mamon »

jacquesm wrote: post #158
mamon wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so he is a great entrepreneur: knows how to run the company to be profitable, low cost, high revenue, knows how to advertise, how to make a lot of hype. Those are great skills, but have nothing to do with technology. There are many companies that are better at creating new, disrupting technologies: Google with all of its AI research and Android, Amazon with a cloud platform, even Microsoft with Windows and Office…

Yes, but you should compare SpaceX with other space entities and Tesla with other car manufacturers. Apples to apples. Comparing Tesla or SpaceX with Google, Amazon or Microsoft is pointless, they are in completely different fields.

But the point is: both Tesla and SpaceX already had their respective fields, with established players that proved the whole thing at least possible despite being far from perfection. Google or Amazon pioneered completely new fields, something that Musk is just now trying to do with Hyperloop

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#164

Post by jcranmer »

pas wrote: post #157
ComradeTaco wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a functional limit for induced demand! But it effectively can't be reached in urban and suburban areas because cars scale really poorly. Cars don't scale well for three main reasons: (1) Cost. Building roads and highways inflicts both huge upfront capital costs and maintenance costs. A typical highway line has a throughput of 2,000 cars per hour. (2) Real Estate. Building the level of roads necessary to meet…

Only cost is important for tunnels, because there's still space sufficient for hundreds of layers of tunnels below cities.

Only if you build tunnels that no one can get to. Road tunnels still need to obey grade and (horizontal and vertical) curvature restrictions. For example, every story down you push a tunnel, every city block longer an access ramp needs to be. And the deeper you make tunnels, the more difficult ventilation and pumping becomes.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#165

Post by stale2002 »

ethn wrote: post #70
stale2002 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? Transportation technology massively benefits the poor more than it does the rich. The biggest expense that the working class pay is rent. If you can cut long distance commute times in half, then that means that someone who works in the city is able to save 50% or more on rent by living outside the extremely expensive city. Transportation and housing (2 sides of the same coin) is arguably the single most importan…

If it really is beneficial, then Elon Musk and the share holders, should use their same influence they have on the government, on the financial institutions that exist to acquire low interest loans. There is of no reason, that the tax payers should be forced to support the risk or even a project that few people under the upper-middle class will benefit from. There is no reason that Elon Musk should be subsidized to c…

What in the world are you talking about?

Their shareholders are spending their own money to finance this. They are not being subsidized.

Lobbying the government to pay for this instead, would be doing the thing that you are arguing against. Why should the taxpayers pay for this when other people are perfectly willing to spend their money instead?

Not only that, but it would take decades for the government to do it, AND if they were to do it then it would be 10 times more expensive.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#167

Post by grecy »

jonstewart wrote: post #133
dalbasal wrote: post #18

One feature of the transport market (from a mile high view) is that demand is almost infinite. If you can get 40kms in 45 minutes, then you can live within 40 miles of work and commute in that time. If you could go 400kms, then that becomes your commuting radius. We've seen people spread this way as earlier mechanized transport was invented. IE, average commute times didn't go down because of faster transport, distan…

One feature of classical mechanics is that the world must abide by it. With transportation, the vehicle must start and stop at a speed of zero. The energy required to accelerate the vehicle to its top speed and then decelerate it to back to zero increases quadratically as the top speed increases. Another feature of classical mechanics is, of course, that Aristotelian concept of kenophobia, or horror vacui, or resinte…

> With transportation, the vehicle must start and stop at a speed of zero. The energy required to accelerate the vehicle to its top speed and then decelerate it to back to zero increases quadratically as the top speed increases.

Don't be so sure. The vehicle could move continuously at cruising speed while individual people are brought to/from it and then "dock".

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#168

Post by jacquesm »

mamon wrote: post #163
jacquesm wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but you should compare SpaceX with other space entities and Tesla with other car manufacturers. Apples to apples. Comparing Tesla or SpaceX with Google, Amazon or Microsoft is pointless, they are in completely different fields.

But the point is: both Tesla and SpaceX already had their respective fields, with established players that proved the whole thing at least possible despite being far from perfection. Google or Amazon pioneered completely new fields, something that Musk is just now trying to do with Hyperloop

> But the point is: both Tesla and SpaceX already had their respective fields, with established players that proved the whole thing at least possible despite being far from perfection.

It is super hard to make something entirely new in an established field.

> Google or Amazon pioneered completely new fields, something that Musk is just now trying to do with Hyperloop

Google did not pioneer the search engine, Amazon did not pioneer e-commerce.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#169

Post by Tloewald »

adventured wrote: post #90
Tloewald wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're ignoring payroll tax and public subsidy of private sector by allowing them to hire people at below subsistence (because medicaid and food stamps are a subsidy to Walmart)

No, I'm not. Income taxes carry the extreme burden of the tax regime in the US. The only alternative to partial subsidies for poor workers, is total subsidy (which is what happens if you try to make Walmart pay workers $20 / hour, tax payers end up paying for a total subsidy as those workers lose their jobs). That is your only choice. Highly developed nations in eg Europe also follow that exact model, despite their v…

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/13/high-income-...

Payroll taxes are about 3/4 the size of income tax, and again you're ignoring the amount of federal outlays that are corporate welfare that benefits the rich. Again, Medicaid and food stamps allow people to take low income jobs and (barely) survive. In most OECD countries, higher incomes allow most employed people to meet their own living expenses (although their healthcare is still effectively subsidized).

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#170

Post by [deleted] »

dalbasal wrote: post #121
ethn wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roads aren't a speculative technology, they are proven to work, and are not owned by a private enterprise. Elon Musk is being subsidized to create a monopoly of transportation on commonly owned land. But yes, this isn't just a problem with Elon Musk, the political-industrial complex is a newer but persistent problem thats become exacerbated with age. Elon Musk is just a master at exploiting this hole.

Ok... a bunch of things in here. One is investment into speculative vs proven ideas. I don't have a single/principled answer to that. Another is subsidization, though that is fairly common (almost universal) in transport . A third is monopoly. Again, almost unavoidable in transport. I guess if you put the last two together, publicly subsidized private monopoly than you get to some " political-industrial complex " iss…

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