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Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

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Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#41

Post by draw_down »

sillysaurus3 wrote: post #8

This article is delusional if it thinks the swings have anything to do with the bitcoin civil war. Bitcoin has always been volatile, and will continue to be volatile. It's a gambler's currency. People always try to assign a reason to things. We don't like accepting that there just aren't any reasons. But as someone who has seen bitcoin go up and down and back again over years, there really isn't a reason for it besid…

Many times you can't know the reason, and in an investing sense this is perhaps functionally equivalent to there being no reason. But that doesn't mean there is no reason.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#42

Post by csomar »

sillysaurus3 wrote: post #8

This article is delusional if it thinks the swings have anything to do with the bitcoin civil war. Bitcoin has always been volatile, and will continue to be volatile. It's a gambler's currency. People always try to assign a reason to things. We don't like accepting that there just aren't any reasons. But as someone who has seen bitcoin go up and down and back again over years, there really isn't a reason for it besid…

This comment is as simple (in thinking) as the article. You said bitcoin has "always" been volatile. Well, everything is volatile. But the volatility of bitcoin is not constant, it is changing and bitcoin has gone through periods of stability making it less volatile than gold and closer to normal currencies.

Here is the volatility index: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/volatility-index/

You can notice that bitcoin went in the last few months through a volatility peak that didn't correct and is now surging again (in volatility).

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#43

Post by smokeyj »

and0 wrote: post #20
cloakandswagger wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, it still seems as hostile as ever. Every top voted comment on a thread concerning crypto will be people cheering its inevitable demise and mocking its naive supporters. I can only imagine it's a mixture of jealousy and sour grapes from missing out on crypto's rise, but it feels strange that a forum dedicated to tech is so angry and dismissive towards a really interesting new technology.

I think it's incredibly interesting and the the tech / concept is extremely impressive. (We still don't even know who thought this up, do we?) That being said, I'm one of the people who have always mocked bitcoin. There are so many obvious problems with it, and some of the people in the cult built around it lack a hilarious amount of self-awareness. Congrats to those who speculated successfully regardless. I'm not sa…

> or any tulips throughout history.

Not salty huh LOL

This must be infuriating to you. All these ideologically driven libertarians, creating the future of finance and trade, while making a ton of money - and totally not caring what Statists think. #WINNING

Edit: Crypto works because people opt-in. People see value in voluntary trade that can cross borders without being shaken down. The petro-dollar works as long as the US has a gun big enough to threaten the world with. That won't last forever.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#44

Post by njarboe »

gnaritas wrote: post #36
rothbardrand wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider that those "obvious problems" (which you don't name) may be misunderstandings on your part, of the technology, or how economics works on a global scale. Bitcoin is a very well designed crypto-economic system. It took smart work from people with backgrounds and understanding in both. It's easy to mock because it's different from the standard quo and Statists seem to think that Only government can do money pro…

> and Statists Your bias is strong, it's far more likely you're the one with misunderstandings than the OP. The unbiased don't go around calling people statists; nation states are the norm in the world, they're properly just called people. As the anti-statist and the one who isn't the norm, the label more appropriately belongs on you. Humans are tribal animals, always have been and always will be, nation states are m…

Murder is also a "normal natural human behavior", especially when one has a strong tribal bonds and are dealing with those outside the tribe. Suppressing or sublimating some normal natural human behavior with culture is probably a good thing. Choose wisely.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#45

Post by maxerickson »

cloakandswagger wrote: post #16
LAMike wrote: post #2

Has anyone noticed a paradigm shift in the way Bitcoin and Ethereum are treated on HN?

Nope, it still seems as hostile as ever. Every top voted comment on a thread concerning crypto will be people cheering its inevitable demise and mocking its naive supporters. I can only imagine it's a mixture of jealousy and sour grapes from missing out on crypto's rise, but it feels strange that a forum dedicated to tech is so angry and dismissive towards a really interesting new technology.

You should call em cybers.

At least there the existing usage didn't mean anything. And it would still sound stupid and check all the boxes like that.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#46

Post by and0 »

wyldfire wrote: post #35
leereeves wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but the network would never stop, it would serve the black market exclusively All the computers required to keep Bitcoin running would be an easy target for law enforcement.

shrug , difficulty adjusts, asics get smaller, cooler, enclosures designed differently, miners hide them in drywall or wherever we hide prohibited stuff these days.

Imagining the scene from the end of Goodfellas, with Lorraine Bracco flushing handfuls of asics down the toilet.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#47

Post by sna1l »

rothbardrand wrote: post #23
sillysaurus3 wrote: post #8

This article is delusional if it thinks the swings have anything to do with the bitcoin civil war. Bitcoin has always been volatile, and will continue to be volatile. It's a gambler's currency. People always try to assign a reason to things. We don't like accepting that there just aren't any reasons. But as someone who has seen bitcoin go up and down and back again over years, there really isn't a reason for it besid…

I've been watching this closely, and the price seems to be driven by the Segwit2x signaling rate. We're close to the %80 activation and when it looked like we weren't going to make it we saw a decline, and when hash power switched signaling and the price recovered. The reason the hash power signaling is not so stable right now has a technical reason-- Bip-91 is rushed, the Segwit2x proposal was rather late in the gam…

While I tend to agree with you, correlation doesn't mean causation.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#48

Post by gnaritas »

njarboe wrote: post #44
gnaritas wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and Statists Your bias is strong, it's far more likely you're the one with misunderstandings than the OP. The unbiased don't go around calling people statists; nation states are the norm in the world, they're properly just called people. As the anti-statist and the one who isn't the norm, the label more appropriately belongs on you. Humans are tribal animals, always have been and always will be, nation states are m…

Murder is also a "normal natural human behavior", especially when one has a strong tribal bonds and are dealing with those outside the tribe. Suppressing or sublimating some normal natural human behavior with culture is probably a good thing. Choose wisely.

No, murder is a rare human behavior practiced by a tiny tiny minority of people and is considered quite abnormal. Normal human behavior is to not murder others. Normal is a synonym for typical, does the typical person you know go around committing murder?

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#49

Post by wyldfire »

and0 wrote: post #37
rothbardrand wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider that those "obvious problems" (which you don't name) may be misunderstandings on your part, of the technology, or how economics works on a global scale. Bitcoin is a very well designed crypto-economic system. It took smart work from people with backgrounds and understanding in both. It's easy to mock because it's different from the standard quo and Statists seem to think that Only government can do money pro…

I didn't name the obvious problems because they've been talked over to death at this point, typically in that most-upvoted first post you mentioned initially. I think the largest issue with Bitcoin is precisely what you probably admire it for, judging by your description of its detractors: I don't think the average consumer wants an unregulated currency. People like having a central authority that enforces laws aroun…

> I don't think the average consumer wants an unregulated currency.

Ok, so it will continue to apply to just the niche that's okay w/unregulated currency.

> People like having a central authority that enforces laws around their currency.

I will concede that this is a risk. Every time a theft occurs, there's temptation to try to "solve" the problem of thefts. Once a powerful state endorses a black/grey list of coins tainted by theft (even if it's offered as a "hey this is opt-in, we won't legislate this list"), it will start us on a slippery slope towards centralization and perhaps prohibition/censorship.

> People enjoy the benefits of a dollar that doesn't fluctuate wildly in value.

Yes, bitcoin may continue to be stuck in a niche like equities or something other than currency.

> People enjoy the conveniences of modern banking systems.

Yes, and bridging the gap between human/trust/legally secured systems with mathematical ones like bitcoin is a challenge. And yet, businesses have arisen to handle this challenge.

Ultimately, the "but it's not really suited for what that guy Fred said it could do" arguments are orthogonal. It doesn't matter that what Fred said was an exaggeration or completely false. Bitcoin will keep churning out new blocks regardless. And yes, people may eventually say to themselves "oh hey if it will never do that then I should sell!" And the value will drop. But what if it were back to USD parity? Would that be bad? Or just the new norm? I contend it's the latter.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#50

Post by and0 »

njarboe wrote: post #44
gnaritas wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and Statists Your bias is strong, it's far more likely you're the one with misunderstandings than the OP. The unbiased don't go around calling people statists; nation states are the norm in the world, they're properly just called people. As the anti-statist and the one who isn't the norm, the label more appropriately belongs on you. Humans are tribal animals, always have been and always will be, nation states are m…

Murder is also a "normal natural human behavior", especially when one has a strong tribal bonds and are dealing with those outside the tribe. Suppressing or sublimating some normal natural human behavior with culture is probably a good thing. Choose wisely.

Murder isn't really a "normal natural human behavior". Deferring to people's desire for a stable currency in a modern economy does not mean normalizing murder.

Seriously: what?

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