Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 73 posts

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#31

Post by wyldfire »

and0 wrote: post #20
cloakandswagger wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, it still seems as hostile as ever. Every top voted comment on a thread concerning crypto will be people cheering its inevitable demise and mocking its naive supporters. I can only imagine it's a mixture of jealousy and sour grapes from missing out on crypto's rise, but it feels strange that a forum dedicated to tech is so angry and dismissive towards a really interesting new technology.

I think it's incredibly interesting and the the tech / concept is extremely impressive. (We still don't even know who thought this up, do we?) That being said, I'm one of the people who have always mocked bitcoin. There are so many obvious problems with it, and some of the people in the cult built around it lack a hilarious amount of self-awareness. Congrats to those who speculated successfully regardless. I'm not sa…

> That being said, I'm one of the people who have always mocked bitcoin. There are so many obvious problems with it, and some of the people in the cult built around it lack a hilarious amount of self-awareness.

Don't lump supporters in with a "cult." Just observe: it's been here for a long time and if there were a way to turn it off it would've happened by now.

IMO it's never going away. ICOs will come and go. Altcoins will come and go. Bitcoin is here to stay. It's not tulips, it's not a ponzie scheme.

Will it obsolete credit cards or cash? No, that's unlikely.

Will it obsolete precious metals? No, that seems unlikely, too.

Will its value stabilize against fiat currency and become a real safe store of money? That's unlikely to happen soon IMO but maybe in some decade or two?

Bitcoin is new and the use cases don't completely 100% overlap with cash, credit cards, bearer bonds, stocks, precious metals, contracts. But it does line up really well with some uses of each.

The defeat of bitcoin would only happen if its mathematical or functional model collapsed. For example: transactions execute Too Slowly, disk space required for node operation became Too Large, node operation became Too Expensive, hashing algorithm no longer considered Safe. Transaction speed, disk space, computation -- for the most part these are all fairly negotiable/reconsiderable by the humans who see some value from bitcoin's continued operation. If global changes make these things not work, the market will find a balance. See all of the recent pushback regarding transaction speed/cost and how best to solve the problem. Even if we end up with Bitcoin[0], Bitcoin[1], Bitcoin[2], I would argue that each of them Are Bitcoin and individually and collectively continue to illustrate bitcoin's success.

EDIT: actually one huge risk could be united global censorship by treaty -- this would destroy a lot of its value and utility (but the network would never stop, it would serve the black market exclusively).

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#32

Post by leereeves »

wyldfire wrote: post #31
and0 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's incredibly interesting and the the tech / concept is extremely impressive. (We still don't even know who thought this up, do we?) That being said, I'm one of the people who have always mocked bitcoin. There are so many obvious problems with it, and some of the people in the cult built around it lack a hilarious amount of self-awareness. Congrats to those who speculated successfully regardless. I'm not sa…

> That being said, I'm one of the people who have always mocked bitcoin. There are so many obvious problems with it, and some of the people in the cult built around it lack a hilarious amount of self-awareness. Don't lump supporters in with a "cult." Just observe: it's been here for a long time and if there were a way to turn it off it would've happened by now. IMO it's never going away. ICOs will come and go. Altcoi…

> but the network would never stop, it would serve the black market exclusively

All the computers required to keep Bitcoin running would be an easy target for law enforcement.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#33

Post by revmoo »

cloakandswagger wrote: post #12
sillysaurus3 wrote: post #8

This article is delusional if it thinks the swings have anything to do with the bitcoin civil war. Bitcoin has always been volatile, and will continue to be volatile. It's a gambler's currency. People always try to assign a reason to things. We don't like accepting that there just aren't any reasons. But as someone who has seen bitcoin go up and down and back again over years, there really isn't a reason for it besid…

I think you're underestimating just how big a deal the split was. It could have lead to Bitcoin being split into two distinct currencies, and this was happening on a very short and defined timeline (July 21st and August). The swings absolutely were caused by anxiety/relief around this event.

Not a chance. The volatility surrounding this event was at or below the normal levels of BTC volatility.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#34

Post by leereeves »

Retric wrote: post #11
LAMike wrote: post #2

Has anyone noticed a paradigm shift in the way Bitcoin and Ethereum are treated on HN?

Not really, IMO mostly people just got tired of talking about them. Which is a bad canary in the coal mine, for something backed up by hype. Unless we eventually see TV commercials pumping up gold I mean bitcoin.

There are TV commercials pumping up gold, from the companies that sell gold (like Goldline).

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#35

Post by wyldfire »

leereeves wrote: post #32
wyldfire wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That being said, I'm one of the people who have always mocked bitcoin. There are so many obvious problems with it, and some of the people in the cult built around it lack a hilarious amount of self-awareness. Don't lump supporters in with a "cult." Just observe: it's been here for a long time and if there were a way to turn it off it would've happened by now. IMO it's never going away. ICOs will come and go. Altcoi…

> but the network would never stop, it would serve the black market exclusively All the computers required to keep Bitcoin running would be an easy target for law enforcement.

shrug, difficulty adjusts, asics get smaller, cooler, enclosures designed differently, miners hide them in drywall or wherever we hide prohibited stuff these days.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#36

Post by gnaritas »

rothbardrand wrote: post #25
and0 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's incredibly interesting and the the tech / concept is extremely impressive. (We still don't even know who thought this up, do we?) That being said, I'm one of the people who have always mocked bitcoin. There are so many obvious problems with it, and some of the people in the cult built around it lack a hilarious amount of self-awareness. Congrats to those who speculated successfully regardless. I'm not sa…

Consider that those "obvious problems" (which you don't name) may be misunderstandings on your part, of the technology, or how economics works on a global scale. Bitcoin is a very well designed crypto-economic system. It took smart work from people with backgrounds and understanding in both. It's easy to mock because it's different from the standard quo and Statists seem to think that Only government can do money pro…

> and Statists

Your bias is strong, it's far more likely you're the one with misunderstandings than the OP. The unbiased don't go around calling people statists; nation states are the norm in the world, they're properly just called people. As the anti-statist and the one who isn't the norm, the label more appropriately belongs on you. Humans are tribal animals, always have been and always will be, nation states are merely the current expression of this normal natural human behavior.

Bitcoin is simply not attractive to the ordinary person because they don't have this anti-state bias that makes it so attractive to you. The dollar is incredibly stable, that stability comes from a central authority who actively manages the currency to keep it so, and people like it that way. As a currency, Bitcoin is terrible and doesn't come close to approaching the utility of the dollar. Bitcoin is little more than a speculative tech commodity attractive to a small minority of people who think they can either make money or escape the state. It has a place, a small one.

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#37

Post by and0 »

rothbardrand wrote: post #25
and0 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's incredibly interesting and the the tech / concept is extremely impressive. (We still don't even know who thought this up, do we?) That being said, I'm one of the people who have always mocked bitcoin. There are so many obvious problems with it, and some of the people in the cult built around it lack a hilarious amount of self-awareness. Congrats to those who speculated successfully regardless. I'm not sa…

Consider that those "obvious problems" (which you don't name) may be misunderstandings on your part, of the technology, or how economics works on a global scale. Bitcoin is a very well designed crypto-economic system. It took smart work from people with backgrounds and understanding in both. It's easy to mock because it's different from the standard quo and Statists seem to think that Only government can do money pro…

I didn't name the obvious problems because they've been talked over to death at this point, typically in that most-upvoted first post you mentioned initially.

I think the largest issue with Bitcoin is precisely what you probably admire it for, judging by your description of its detractors: I don't think the average consumer wants an unregulated currency. People like having a central authority that enforces laws around their currency. People enjoy the benefits of a dollar that doesn't fluctuate wildly in value. People enjoy the conveniences of modern banking systems.

There's a tendency for libertarians to ignore very obvious examples of contradictions in their world view, because any of these examples can be dismissed using random ideological purity tests. Namely, the idea that the market is entirely separate from the government, or that a government formed by (often very imperfect) representative democracy or even brute force is any less pure of a "force" than market forces.

Modern financial systems developed largely because people wanted them. Consumer protections laws were implemented because people voted for them and would be very upset if they were taken away. People who step into voting booths are still "rational actors". People who disagree with your world view (just about literally everyone) are still rational actors.

At the end of the day advocates of cryptocurrency have tried everything to get people to start using or accepting Bitcoin and no one has, despite no real government intervention. Hell, the whole point of your original post was to lament that the most popular opinion is that cryptocurrency is dumb. The market has said no, why have you not started listening?

(Also: Mining is massively wasteful. Transactions are expensive. It's overtly complicated and unpleasant to handle. A lot of people lose all their money because sites get hacked. Also, all the issues brought up by this whole forking incident.)

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#38

Post by thanatropism »

sillysaurus3 wrote: post #8

This article is delusional if it thinks the swings have anything to do with the bitcoin civil war. Bitcoin has always been volatile, and will continue to be volatile. It's a gambler's currency. People always try to assign a reason to things. We don't like accepting that there just aren't any reasons. But as someone who has seen bitcoin go up and down and back again over years, there really isn't a reason for it besid…

Yeah well, it was a volatility spike.

https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/analysis/VOL.BTCUSD:FOREX-R.GARCH

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#39

Post by stale2002 »

leereeves wrote: post #32
wyldfire wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That being said, I'm one of the people who have always mocked bitcoin. There are so many obvious problems with it, and some of the people in the cult built around it lack a hilarious amount of self-awareness. Don't lump supporters in with a "cult." Just observe: it's been here for a long time and if there were a way to turn it off it would've happened by now. IMO it's never going away. ICOs will come and go. Altcoi…

> but the network would never stop, it would serve the black market exclusively All the computers required to keep Bitcoin running would be an easy target for law enforcement.

So now law enforcement has to shut down every Bitcoin node in the world, including the ones that are run exclusively on tor in 3rd world countries, AND shut now any new ones that pop up?

Re: Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

#40

Post by opportune »

cloakandswagger wrote: post #16
LAMike wrote: post #2

Has anyone noticed a paradigm shift in the way Bitcoin and Ethereum are treated on HN?

Nope, it still seems as hostile as ever. Every top voted comment on a thread concerning crypto will be people cheering its inevitable demise and mocking its naive supporters. I can only imagine it's a mixture of jealousy and sour grapes from missing out on crypto's rise, but it feels strange that a forum dedicated to tech is so angry and dismissive towards a really interesting new technology.

I wouldn't say hostile, more skeptical. I think bitcoin and some altcoins (siacoin and ethereum in particular) are really cool technology. But I don't have faith in cryptocurrency as anything more than a digital remittance system with side applications in money laundering, the drug trade, etc. And as of right now I have yet to be proven wrong about this. Bitcoin in its current state won't be able to replace normal transactions due to fee and speed issues.

I've also seen a shifting of goalposts within the bitcoin community from the utility of bitcoin being a censorship-free digital currency to a digital store of value. Personally I am not at all interested in the concept of "digital gold" because there's nothing inherent about bitcoin that makes it better digital gold than other altcoins.

Of course, there's also the fact that new altcoins seem to constantly be improving on each other. This is good in general, but as a side effect it makes comitting to one single coin seem like a short-sighted move.

That said, I would love for a cryptocurrency to be able to scale to the point that it becomes a viable part of the global economy. It would be amazing for privacy and anti-authoritarianism. At present, bitcoin cannot scale to this level, though.

Post reply on HN