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Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

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Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#221

Post by stubish »

nkrisc wrote: post #54
drewrv wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also an example of users saying they want one thing (randomness) when really they want something else (variety).

Great example of finding what users really want as opposed to what they say they want.

Or a great example of how things fail when producers and consumers don't use the same language. If you don't understand the language your consumers are speaking, you are not going to produce what they want.

So next time some one tells you their computer is broken, don't reply saying it appears to be in one piece.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#222

Post by abritinthebay »

robotresearcher wrote: post #211
abritinthebay wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for the purposes described in the comment - I was quite clear that a certain level you get down to quantum effects. But for the context of the physical processes the OP was talking about those effects are not significant and so I excluded them.

How about we replace the dice with Schrödinger's cat?

Then we’re dealing with a very different thing and the conversation is therefore different?

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#223

Post by abritinthebay »

MereInterest wrote: post #192
abritinthebay wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's only odd if you're worrying about it outside of the context that the parent comment was talking about. Which I wasn't. You clearly are. Yes, quantum stuff exists. At the scales the OP was talking about though they are mostly insignificant therefore I hand-waved them because they were not relevant to the discussion.

As far as I could tell, the thread started from the mention that Einstein believed that the universe is deterministic, which set the context of the thread. This argument is traditionally seen in context of quantum effects, and whether or not there exist hidden variables.

At the level of discussion in advanced physics, yes.

But that’s also because that’s where the really interesting work is.

It’s quite a different scope of conversation

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#224

Post by biafra »

How do I run this code? I thikn I succesfully installed the package with npm. There were some warnings but no error. But how do I run:

> const RiggedDie = require('gamblers-dice')

> const die = new RiggedDie(20) // for a d20

> console.log(die.roll()) // 1 -> 20

> console.log(die.roll()) // keep using the same instance

Do I put it in a file? Do I copy paste it into a REPL? If so what provides that REPL?

I am always surprised when sample code providers assume I know their languages ecosystem.

UPDATE: Apparently I can use "node" as a REPL for this.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#225

Post by CPLX »

duxup wrote: post #107
xori wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you! Sometimes the hardest thing is knowing what to google!

I do a lot of furious googling thinking: "Oh man this has to be a thing but what could it be and how would someone describe it?... awe forget it." Then months later by accident while looking at a completely different topic: "OMG there it is, the thing!"

Indeed. This happened to me the other day trying to find the name for a domino joiner while googling for biscuit joiners.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#226

Post by tvararu »

talyian wrote: post #105
Pfhreak wrote: post #4

Interesting, and at first I was excited about the possibilities in something like D&D, where a series of bad rolls can have you feeling down. "I'm due for a critical hit any swing now..." Players would love that! Make my hero feel more heroic! The inevitable comeback! But then I thought about the inverse case -- you are doing really well, and now you are due for a failure. Or series of failures. That would feel awful…

In some competitive games like Dota and LoL, the random distribution for critical hits is weighted so that it ramps up over time, resetting after a successful crit. ( http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Random_distribution ) This both reduces the chance of two high rolls coming up twice in a row as well as long periods of low rolls. It doesn't have the "you are doing really well, and now you are due for a failure" since "not…

Interesting, when I used to play League of Legends I was sure that the crit chance wasn't random at all. In my experience, at 25% crit precisely every 4th strike would crit, at 50% precisely half, and at 75% every 4th strike I'd do wouldn't be a crit. It seemed fully deterministic which I thought was an interesting way to make the mechanic more skillful as you could count in your head when you'll get a damage spike; you could fire some useless shots on minions then dive in for a trade on your enemy laner knowing that you'd win because of your guaranteed crit.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#227

Post by GrantSolar »

ganonm wrote: post #66
michaelmcmillan wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually tested the random distribution of Spotify's shuffle functionality: http://michaelmcmillan.net

Spotify wrote a brilliant blog post on this. Highly recommend reading. https://labs.spotify.com/2014/02/28/how-to-shuffle-songs/

From anecdotal evidence, I understand that the algorithm has since been changed

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#228

Post by mysterydip »

This will be great for game developers as many a player has complained that the RNG wasn't "fair" because they got so many fails in a row or never saw a critical hit or whatever, even though it was mathematically correctly random. Thanks, looking forward to using it!

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#229

Post by madshiva »

legohead wrote: post #103
ideonexus wrote: post #8

A great application for this is in randomizing playlists. My friends, who are also CS grads and should know better, have often complained that their MP3 players, CD carousels, etc play the same music too often claiming that the random is broken, when a song repeating in a short period of time or other songs never playing is what you would expect from a truly random selection. Using this algorithm, you'd be sure to he…

back when I used Winamp as my daily player, I was getting annoyed that its "shuffle" kept playing the same songs. and it would play the same songs in a row. so I would hear the songs C,A,F play. then the next day again the sequence would be C,A,F. over time, I would start hearing the melody of the next song before it even started playing. when I finally noticed this and realized that could only mean it's not actually…

ha! everything has a sense now.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#230

Post by awodol »

DINKDINK wrote: post #137
talyian wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some competitive games like Dota and LoL, the random distribution for critical hits is weighted so that it ramps up over time, resetting after a successful crit. ( http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Random_distribution ) This both reduces the chance of two high rolls coming up twice in a row as well as long periods of low rolls. It doesn't have the "you are doing really well, and now you are due for a failure" since "not…

Fascinating! I wonder if the distribution is engineered like that to avoid specious cheating claims. E.g. Player:"Look at this video of Famous_Player getting 3 crits in a row! They're probably cheating!" So much potential for fallacies; Gambler's Fallacy, Silent Evidence Fallacy..

There isn't really a possibility to cheat game mechanics in those sort of games thankfully since things like critical hits are all handled server side.
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