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Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

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Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#191

Post by gpawl »

plus wrote: post #90
_Marak_ wrote: post #11

I'm probably very wrong, but I still feel there is some undiscovered science when it comes to RNG and the fallacy of the maturity of chances ( Gambler's Fallacy ). Einstein believed the universe was deterministic. Just because it appears to us that there is no correlation between independent events ( the roll of a dice ), does not mean that there isn't some underlaying variable that we are unable to measure or percei…

Einstein, as everyone knows, was one of the most intelligent and insightful theoretical scientists ever born. His work on the photoelectric effect, which posited that the frequencies of light emitted by a material are quantized, rather than continuous, is what won him the Nobel prize. His thinking influenced the great thinkers behind the formulation of quantum physics as we understand it today: Bohr, Dirac, Heisenber…

> the various "interpretations" of quantum mechanics frequently fail to address what the nature of physical reality

No, they ALWAYS fail to address it, That's why they are called "interpretations", not "models".

> Do they actually exist

This question is completely outside of the realm of science.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#192

Post by MereInterest »

abritinthebay wrote: post #179
MereInterest wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems a rather odd definition to make, then. Radioactive decay has large-scale effects, such as determining The elemental composition of the universe. Quantum effects govern the entirety of the universe, so I'm not sure why you would want such a large exception to your generalization. I would go the other route. Nothing can be predicted, except statistically.

It's only odd if you're worrying about it outside of the context that the parent comment was talking about. Which I wasn't. You clearly are. Yes, quantum stuff exists. At the scales the OP was talking about though they are mostly insignificant therefore I hand-waved them because they were not relevant to the discussion.

As far as I could tell, the thread started from the mention that Einstein believed that the universe is deterministic, which set the context of the thread. This argument is traditionally seen in context of quantum effects, and whether or not there exist hidden variables.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#193

Post by gpawl »

cestith wrote: post #91
drewrv wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also an example of users saying they want one thing (randomness) when really they want something else (variety).

Shuffle and weighted random both give a better chance of variety than truly random. Shuffle is cheaper to calculate in terms of storage space. The article is about weighting randomness based on past distribution. In a music playlist that may be enough. Some user might also want a term in the equation that weights songs they've rated highly to be favored over lower-rated or unrated songs.

"truly random" refers to how well a real distribution matches its intended distribution. So, a long cycle is not truly random, because many desired outcomes are physically possible to obtain.

This is orthognal to the choice of distributon. Shuffle and Weighted Sampling are different choices of distribution.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#194

Post by [deleted] »

gregmac wrote: post #135
ideonexus wrote: post #8

A great application for this is in randomizing playlists. My friends, who are also CS grads and should know better, have often complained that their MP3 players, CD carousels, etc play the same music too often claiming that the random is broken, when a song repeating in a short period of time or other songs never playing is what you would expect from a truly random selection. Using this algorithm, you'd be sure to he…

Several years ago I used to use a music service that had a bunch of sliders, something like: Favorites: Normal Very Frequently Artist: Liked only Wide variety Prefer: Old New Popularity: Hits only Fringe It was great to be able to customize stations. I don't remember what service it was, but I think it did get purchased and folded into something else. This was a great way of tweaking the "randomization", and really g…

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#196

Post by joefkelley »

gozur88 wrote: post #144
talyian wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some competitive games like Dota and LoL, the random distribution for critical hits is weighted so that it ramps up over time, resetting after a successful crit. ( http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Random_distribution ) This both reduces the chance of two high rolls coming up twice in a row as well as long periods of low rolls. It doesn't have the "you are doing really well, and now you are due for a failure" since "not…

Dota was my first thought when I read the article. Good Dota players pay attention to their crits, and if they haven't had one in a few hits they adjust strategy with the expectation of higher damage, something you would never do if it was truly random.

Yeah I've definitely seen Arteezy on PA hit neutrals until he gets a few non-crits in a row, then go gank.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#197

Post by wpietri »

yathern wrote: post #59
kator wrote: post #26

I often use google "flip a coin"[1] for stupid things and the other day I was wondering why almost every single time it came up heads. I started to wonder if there was a browser rng problem or the code was crazy etc. [1] https://www.google.com/search?q=google+flip+a+coin

Just tried it, and my first four flips were heads - you may be on to something... I'll keep flipping and come back with my results. Update: Heads stayed ahead by a few for quite a while, until they tied at 45 each. It's a race to 50, my money is on tails - it's due for a comeback! Update: Tails takes the lead, 46-47! Update: 47-49 Tails is in position to strike! Update: Tails wins! 48-50! (two more clicks to make a s…

Obligatory relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/904/

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#198

Post by wpietri »

wpietri wrote: post #197
yathern wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just tried it, and my first four flips were heads - you may be on to something... I'll keep flipping and come back with my results. Update: Heads stayed ahead by a few for quite a while, until they tied at 45 each. It's a race to 50, my money is on tails - it's due for a comeback! Update: Tails takes the lead, 46-47! Update: 47-49 Tails is in position to strike! Update: Tails wins! 48-50! (two more clicks to make a s…

Obligatory relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/904/

And for those who are really in to this topic, Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" is great. There's a section on how financial traders often end up ranked like this. Somebody makes an effectively random bet, but it pays off big so they're treated as a genius. It made me see all sorts of organizations differently.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#199

Post by heartles »

NelsonMinar wrote: post #81
root_axis wrote: post #71

This reminds me of an article discussing the perceived outcome of RNG decisions in video games. In many types of games, the system will display a percentage chance of success for a given action which allows the player to make risk assessments regarding possible choices. Unfortunately, the unmodified RNG behavior creates an unpleasant experience for the user because the unweighted random outcomes feel "unfair" when fa…

Folks who play Blizzard games call this the "Pity Timer". World of Warcraft, Hearthstone, and Overwatch all have some mechanic where your odds of getting a desireable thing go up if you've had more recent disappointments. RNJesus is merciful.

It's also known as a mercy pull in kingdom hearts Union X, where after a few failed attempts of trying to get a high level medal they will guarantee you one on the next pull.

Re: Show HN: A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy

#200

Post by gerdesj »

fenwick67 wrote: post #74
xori wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I made this specifically for my online D&D sessions. I can tell you that nobody was suspicious when I replaced the standard Math.random() with this version, and all of the "I think your dice function is broken" statements all the sudden stopped happening.

As a D&D player I can see how this might be nice, but at the same time it would be frustrating to get a 20 for something stupid (passing a DC5 check) and know that it had a real effect on my chances for getting a 20 when I could actually use it (a critical attack roll).

There are times in a RPG for (a GM/DM) relying on dice for something and when not to. For some people driving appears to be like bumper cars but for most of us it isn't 8) Apply that to D&D and the player's approach to things should be used to bias or even dispense with dice.
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