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Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

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Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#91
post #82

The real elephant in the room, which Grove and practically everybody else knows very well but refuses to talk about, is that nobody starts a company to employ people. People start a company to make stuff . To the extent this can be done with fewer people, this is always a good thing from that company's perspective, with no exceptions I can think of offhand. People suck, and you don't want to deal with them if you can…

> Grove is basically saying we need to start more companies that "scale up" to require factories where people sit doing stuff like what's seen in that video. He's wrong. You have to give Grove more credit than that. Obviously, he does not want to create clock-punching jobs just for the sake of having clock-punching jobs. Grove is known to run a tight ship. His example of the alternative energy space is a perfect one…

My real point, though, is that consolidation is inevitable. Production jobs ("Scaling," etc.) are going to become less important over time, not more important, whether they're in China or America. Any forward-looking argument that doesn't take that fact into account is flawed from the outset, and I think Grove's piece falls into that category.

Is it really healthy for Silicon Valley if Apple has a factory cranking out iPhones in Cupertino, Google has a 99%-identical factory for Droids in Mountain View, and Palm has yet another factory producing Pres in Sunnyvale? What's the point? The hardware's all very similar from a production viewpoint, or it soon will be. In a rational business climate, all of these products would be made on the same line, by a company that sells manufacturing capability to the highest bidder. Competition will happen on a purely IP-based playing field, not on the factory floor.

Going back to the Tektronix example, when Tektronix finished one of those CRTs, they practically had a one-of-a-kind relic on their hands, a part that would not only not fit in any one else's oscilloscope, but could in most cases be used only in a single model in their own product line. They didn't have what we'd call excess capacity, and if they did, they darned sure wouldn't use it selling excess tubes to the competition, because those tubes were a big part of what made their overall product competitive. So every manufacturer of those particular widgets had to either build their own CRTs or buy them from a common vendor (in which case their scopes sucked).

Tektronix in 1960 couldn't afford to treat production as a red-headed stepchild in their overall business plan... but they sure can today, when the bulk of the test equipment they sell is OEM'ed out of China just like everything else. Sorry, but IMHO, the production of solar panels, portable fusion reactors, or whatever is just going to take the same inevitable course. The business will be commoditized if it prospers at all. Trade policies and externalities have absolutely nothing to do with that.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#92
post #4

Andy makes an excellent point: when we outsource the manufacturing and scaling processes to another country, what we lose in addition to jobs are the innovations and experience necessary to maintain a strong defensive econosystem with respect to our economy. However, I disagree with Andy's recommendation that we should tax offshore labor - we should focus on making labor in the United States less expensive. Neuter th…

Oh yes, the EPA and Department of Labor, with their obnoxious "don't fuck up the environment" and "don't treat people like shit" rules. God damn them.

That would be the EPA that is blocking the use of many oil skimmers in the Gulf and forcing the ones that they approve to run at about 1/6th efficiency.

And that's the department of labor that is keeping experienced crews from running the skimmers that the EPA approves.

I forget which department decided that oil in sensitive wetlands was better than putting up sand berms.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#93
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And since this is YCombinator: it means high wages for YOUR CUSTOMERS to afford YOUR PRODUCT by the MILLIONS. There are only so many Senators and Hedge Fund managers, and they spend their weekends in The Hamptons, not playing with your crappy iPhone game.

Hedge fund managers do indeed bring their iPhones along to the Hamptons.

And use it to do more ... hedge funding.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#94
post #16

He had me up until: Levy an extra tax on the product of offshored labor. (If the result is a trade war, treat it like other wars -- fight to win.) Everybody loses a trade war. And the ensuing impoverishment and desperation can trigger a shooting war.

Citation? Evidence? Data? Or are you just saying that because economic experts like Thomas Friedman have drilled it into our heads for a decade or more?

Probably the best citation is of course the classic economic text "Ferris Buller's Day Off". To quote:

In 1930, the Republican controlled House of Rep, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the… Anyone? Anyone?… the Great Depression, passed the…Anyone? Anyone? The tariff bill? The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act which, anyone? anyone? Raised or lowered?… Raised tariffs, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal gov’t. Did it work? Anyone? Anyone know the effects? It did not work, and the US sank deeper into the Great Depression.

Further details are available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act

The conventional argument goes like this: A trade war causes prices to rise because of the increased tariffs. That price rise flows thoughout the economy as the increased costs are passed on.

The increased cost of living forces a great proportion of household wealth to be non-discretionary spending, which in turn causes the economy to contract.

That contraction in turn causes companies to stop hiring, which increases unemployment.

The increased unemployment reduces demand, and the cycle continues.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can not make labor in the US as cheap as it is in China because if you did they would not be able to afford food.

You can not make labor in the US as cheap as it is in China because if you did they would not be able to afford food. I wonder if that's really true. Food's pretty cheap nowadays.

Then perhaps the more accurate statement would be that food would be all they'd be able to afford. At that point, options are really, really cheap (and incredibly toxic) fast food, or buying some sort of staple in bulk like rice or grains. And if you don't have a roof over your head, it won't do you much good to spend 2/3rds of your monthly salary on a big bag of rice from Costco.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#96
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you actually ever been to an industrialized country that lacks an equivalent of the EPA and OSHA? Go to Beijing, and enjoy the brown air, which is pretty unbreathable on the bad days, and just moderately smelly on the good ones. Whatever you do, don't drink the tapwater, because it'll make even local residents sick. Don't go for a swim in the river, either. Be careful near construction sites; there are gaping ho…

> Go to Beijing... brown air... sick... gaping holes with no signs... break your leg... welding rain down on your head... boss rapes you and you're not connected, that's too bad... Dude, I was in Beijing two months ago. It's not like you make it out to be. Actually, it's a hell of a lot nicer than Detroit. In fact, I was in China five years ago and again two months ago. It's trending upwards quickly - the pollution w…

In fact, I was in China five years ago and again two months ago. It's trending upwards quickly - the pollution was near unbearable five years ago and is rapidly improving. Infrastructure is improving. Air and water quality are improving

All of these things are because of deliberate government policies. I'm sure you know this, but it's worth pointing out. I think you & donw are agreeing with each other here - he's just underestimating how quickly the Chinese government acted to fix what was becoming a problem.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#97
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only purpose of a public company is to make money for shareholders. Not make stuff, not employ people, not even turn a profit - just increase the share price / pay dividends

This is an extremist point of view. Realistically they have a lot of purposes that should be kept in mind.

When you become a director of a company you have a legal duty to "enhance shareholder value" thats the only rule.

Anything else you do, every hire, every contract, every charity donation must be justifiable in this context - unless you enjoy shareholder lawsuits.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#98
post #90
post #59

I find this line of thinking very disturbing. Mr. Grove follows others in believing a common fallacy, by ignoring secondary effects, and fails to see how issues in macroeconomics affect each other. Where to start... The American standard of living is higher than China. In order for a worker in the US to continue to enjoy his standard of living and salary, she must contribute to creating something of value equal to wh…

In other words, as wages drop, the unemployment rate will go down, and less will be outsourced. This is just the tradeoff. You make that sound so simple. You left out the bit about that meaning falling standards of living, and the social dislocation that causes.

>falling standards of living

You mean only being able to buy a 27" TV for $1000 instead of a 50" one? Or having to stick with a 3G phone for another year before getting a 4G one?

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#99

The real elephant in the room, which Grove and practically everybody else knows very well but refuses to talk about, is that nobody starts a company to employ people. People start a company to make stuff . To the extent this can be done with fewer people, this is always a good thing from that company's perspective, with no exceptions I can think of offhand. People suck, and you don't want to deal with them if you can…

I know I am repeating myself#, but why do we make more stuff? To make even more stuff?

Isn't all of this a really circular argument? I am really sorry, but I am extremely confused about what you are trying to say over here. :(

I know it's extremely stupid of me to ask this, but how is any method of mass production built upon exploiting people whether they are on a piece of land called the united states of america, or china or india help anyone in the longer term?

# http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1479902

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Edit: I am sorry if this strikes you as an inane question/off-topic, but I ask this for a reason. The OP states that;

>>>To me, it's obvious what the future of mass production will look like, but it's not at all clear how to stave off a future where 10% of us are shouldering the entire productivity burden for the rest of the country.That is the conclusion only if you accept that the only way for us to function is to make more new stuff and to consume that new stuff. I somehow don't understand that.

I cannot understand why we have accepted an endless cycle that dwindles our resources as the only means to make a contribution? How do you define the value of all of these things that we churn out in the longer term? By measuring their impact on human beings? By their impact on the environment? By their impact on us? By productivity increased through that device? Some standard of living increased for the shorter term by it?

I want to make beautiful things, but I have to ask myself the question; am I creating wealth? Some would argue that wall street creates wealth (parts of it certainly do, but not all of it). However, everything here is dependent on the assumption that the money that is being generated here is wealth, and that the only way to do this is by earning more money. The only way to do that is to make and sell more stuff, which leads to more money, and so on.

I am not saying manufacturing is evil. It isn't. Neither is capitalism or any other ideology. I am merely questioning the ends for which it is being used. People have argued over the centuries that an action itself is stripped of being right and wrong, but it is the context in which it is performed, due to what intention and what effect that makes it good or evil.

So, as someone who doesn't know anything I just want to ask; why?

I am truly sorry if this is something not suited for this space.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#100
post #66

There's another proposed solution to this problem in the form of tax reform - The Fair Tax proposal. IANA Tax Expert, but I like how they've completely rethought the tax system from the ground up, with the objective of making the US a tax haven for all parts of the manufacturing process - harvesting raw materials, milling into useful materials, manufacturing into products, transport, and sales. In a nutshell, there a…

I really like the fair tax, but it bothers me that it is regressive. I know it is the same % for everyone, and there is the rebate at the poverty line, but the wealthy spend a much smaller percentage of their money at the retail level. Why is buying a car taxed but buying a company isn't? I've heard different answers but I'm not convinced by any of them.

Everything is taxed, services as well as investments. What do you think will become of the accumulated wealth, that it will forever remain in bank accounts? What good would it be to have it and not have it moving through the system? It will eventually get taxed, perhaps simple not as fast as you wish.

Its only regressive when you lose perspective on the purpose of money.

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