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Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

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Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#41

Post by rbranson »

CamperBob wrote: post #39
pstuart wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not focus on how to make stuff more efficiently locally, i.e., robotics? At least that could keep some manufacturing jobs local.

I think that's a valid point, but it will quickly devolve into an argument as to where the robots should be built. It still won't magically add any objective value to your product just to have the nuts and bolts tightened in your hometown.

You're confusing a capital investment (the robots) with cost-of-goods-sold (the widgets). Automated manufacturing systems are complex systems that require highly trained individuals to maintain and operate, while reducing the total labor cost. In addition, if more manufacturing utilized these systems, scales of economy could be reached that would allow them to be more modular and commoditized.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#42

Post by cageface »

rbranson wrote: post #33
cageface wrote: post #15

Mr. Grove correctly identifies the problem but avoids the obvious solution, perhaps because it's too painful to articulate. The phenomenally elevated standard of living that we have enjoyed in the U.S. since the end of WWII just isn't sustainable. The Chinese aren't devouring the tech market because they manage their economy. They're doing so because the Chinese worker will work for far, far less than any American wo…

This is a good thing. I disagree with your grim outlook about jobs in intellectual capital being a zero sum game though. Innovation begets more innovation. The more well-educated people around the globe that are innovating in ways that increase productivity, the more capital that is freed up to invest in more intellectually-intensive research and development. Hopefully the allocation of intellectual capital into non-…

It may not be a zero sum game but there is a limit to the number of people that can be employed doing purely intellectual work. I expect that eventually we'll see more and more manual jobs displaced by automation and that the population as a whole will drop because the demand for labor isn't there. Either that or we'll see increasingly large slum classes like in Brazil. The efficiency of global markets will push the value of unskilled labor to rock bottom.

I agree that a more even distribution of wealth around the world is a good thing, although we may also look back at this era of US hegemony as a kind of Pax Romana.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#43

Post by SkyMarshal »

gojomo wrote: post #16

He had me up until: Levy an extra tax on the product of offshored labor. (If the result is a trade war, treat it like other wars -- fight to win.) Everybody loses a trade war. And the ensuing impoverishment and desperation can trigger a shooting war.

Citation? Evidence? Data? Or are you just saying that because economic experts like Thomas Friedman have drilled it into our heads for a decade or more?

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#44

Post by kiba »

pstuart wrote: post #38
CamperBob wrote: post #35

The real elephant in the room, which Grove and practically everybody else knows very well but refuses to talk about, is that nobody starts a company to employ people. People start a company to make stuff . To the extent this can be done with fewer people, this is always a good thing from that company's perspective, with no exceptions I can think of offhand. People suck, and you don't want to deal with them if you can…

Why not focus on how to make stuff more efficiently locally, i.e., robotics? At least that could keep some manufacturing jobs local.

You mean 3D printers like Cupcake CNC from Makerbot Inc? It's already happening to some extent. People, more than ever before, are accumulating technical skills in their hobby time.

At least some of them will be able to accumulate enough knowledge to build something cool, kits, startups, or something else.

Eventually, you'll end up with a scavenging masses that scavenge junks thrown out by the Doctors, Lawyers, movie stars, and all sort of non-technical people of the world.

It'll be an interesting world to see half of society built on high tech junks and sophisticated hacking.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#47

Post by cageface »

CamperBob wrote: post #35

The real elephant in the room, which Grove and practically everybody else knows very well but refuses to talk about, is that nobody starts a company to employ people. People start a company to make stuff . To the extent this can be done with fewer people, this is always a good thing from that company's perspective, with no exceptions I can think of offhand. People suck, and you don't want to deal with them if you can…

For an eerily prophetic look at this from 1849 read John Ruskin's The Seven Lamps of Architecture: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seven_Lamps_of_Architecture

If you're currently making a living doing creative, intellectual work (like programming), count yourself lucky to be among the few remaining craftsmen in the world.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#48

Post by rbranson »

cageface wrote: post #42
rbranson wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a good thing. I disagree with your grim outlook about jobs in intellectual capital being a zero sum game though. Innovation begets more innovation. The more well-educated people around the globe that are innovating in ways that increase productivity, the more capital that is freed up to invest in more intellectually-intensive research and development. Hopefully the allocation of intellectual capital into non-…

It may not be a zero sum game but there is a limit to the number of people that can be employed doing purely intellectual work. I expect that eventually we'll see more and more manual jobs displaced by automation and that the population as a whole will drop because the demand for labor isn't there. Either that or we'll see increasingly large slum classes like in Brazil. The efficiency of global markets will push the…

How is this true? 100 years ago there was virtually nobody employed doing purely intellectual work, yet this has grown to be a huge labor market. Your ideas here kind of trail off to be "The Bell Curve"-ish. Many of these "unskilled laborers" will instead find work in service industries and the arts.

For an HN-geared example: look at what Ruby on Rails, Django, etc has done for web development. It allows web developers to significantly increase output without extra cost or significant externalities, lowering production costs and freeing capital to be spent more efficiently. The market for developers hasn't crashed through the floor though. If anything, it's increased, because of reduced overheads, the value that can be delivered has increased.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#49

Post by jbellis »

alf wrote: post #19
cageface wrote: post #15

Mr. Grove correctly identifies the problem but avoids the obvious solution, perhaps because it's too painful to articulate. The phenomenally elevated standard of living that we have enjoyed in the U.S. since the end of WWII just isn't sustainable. The Chinese aren't devouring the tech market because they manage their economy. They're doing so because the Chinese worker will work for far, far less than any American wo…

Lets also not forget that millions of people in China were starving 30 years ago. The flow of jobs into China pulled 1 billion people out of poverty. This is not insignificant and is not mentioned enough. Americans will go back to work when we get to valuing intelligence and work ethic again. It may take a while.

The Chinese (and many other nationalities) have intelligence and work ethic in spades.

Perhaps you didn't mean that the way it sounded. :)

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#50

Post by [deleted] »

CamperBob wrote: post #37
sanderjd wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry, I don't think this is the place for a thread that will inevitably devolve into tit-for-tat politics, but I really have trouble stomaching the commentary that the EPA should have less regulatory power over industry when proof of the big-picture bankruptcy of environmental deregulation is current gushing into the gulf at a few tens of thousands of barrels a day. Yes, it raises costs to force industries to co…

I'm sorry, I don't think this is the place for a thread that will inevitably devolve into tit-for-tat politics, but I really have trouble stomaching the commentary that the EPA should have less regulatory power over industry when proof of the big-picture bankruptcy of environmental deregulation is current gushing into the gulf at a few tens of thousands of barrels a day. This kind of reasoning is tricky, though. Do w…

[deleted]
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