Live data from Hacker News

Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

bloomberg.com

31–40 of 166 posts

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#31
post #12
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Aaronontheweb makes a good point. Of course he's not arguing in favor of environmental disasters or slavery-in-all-but-name. Pay attention to his main point: attack high labor prices here, rather than low prices elsewhere. Andy Grove can be protectionist if he wants, but just because he's not ashamed of it doesn't make it any better of an idea.

"High labor prices" = "High wages." THIS MEANS YOU! Unless you are worth >$10M, are retired, or live off a trust fund, admit that you're labor not capital: just like highly paid executives, surgeons, and name-brand attorneys are more "labor:" they generate more earned income than asset income. Go ahead: pull out your 2009 tax return: is the "income from wages, tips, and salaries" greater than the "interest income" an…

And since this is YCombinator: it means high wages for YOUR CUSTOMERS to afford YOUR PRODUCT by the MILLIONS.

There are only so many Senators and Hedge Fund managers, and they spend their weekends in The Hamptons, not playing with your crappy iPhone game.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#32
post #31
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"High labor prices" = "High wages." THIS MEANS YOU! Unless you are worth >$10M, are retired, or live off a trust fund, admit that you're labor not capital: just like highly paid executives, surgeons, and name-brand attorneys are more "labor:" they generate more earned income than asset income. Go ahead: pull out your 2009 tax return: is the "income from wages, tips, and salaries" greater than the "interest income" an…

And since this is YCombinator: it means high wages for YOUR CUSTOMERS to afford YOUR PRODUCT by the MILLIONS. There are only so many Senators and Hedge Fund managers, and they spend their weekends in The Hamptons, not playing with your crappy iPhone game.

Hedge fund managers do indeed bring their iPhones along to the Hamptons.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#33

Mr. Grove correctly identifies the problem but avoids the obvious solution, perhaps because it's too painful to articulate. The phenomenally elevated standard of living that we have enjoyed in the U.S. since the end of WWII just isn't sustainable. The Chinese aren't devouring the tech market because they manage their economy. They're doing so because the Chinese worker will work for far, far less than any American wo…

This is a good thing. I disagree with your grim outlook about jobs in intellectual capital being a zero sum game though. Innovation begets more innovation. The more well-educated people around the globe that are innovating in ways that increase productivity, the more capital that is freed up to invest in more intellectually-intensive research and development. Hopefully the allocation of intellectual capital into non-productive activity the financial services sector has caused will be short-lived.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#34
Completely disagree: we need technological paradigm shifts and work our buts off... That was the way to our current standard of living, successfully copied by the East, and it will be the successful path to future growth and industrial/scientific advancement. Not that socialist whiny I need more money and less work attitude a la dying Europe.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#35
The real elephant in the room, which Grove and practically everybody else knows very well but refuses to talk about, is that nobody starts a company to employ people. People start a company to make stuff. To the extent this can be done with fewer people, this is always a good thing from that company's perspective, with no exceptions I can think of offhand. People suck, and you don't want to deal with them if you can help it. Just as factory farmers would love to be able to grow meat in vats without dealing with the messy parts of animal welfare and husbandry, most managers would love to be able to carry out their missions with fewer people. This is a simple reality of productive life, not a question of social morality or human values.

Why does it make sense for companies like Foxconn to take on more and more of our high-tech manufacturing work? Simply because, in contrast to most of the twentieth century, most consumer products are built pretty much the same these days. There is absolutely nothing about a PS3 that requires different components, production lines, or assembly techniques from a desktop PC. There is nothing about an iPhone that justifies building it in a factory that doesn't also make pocket calculators, handheld game consoles, or, hell, competing phones such as Droids. Massive contraction and consolidation of the manufacturing sector, whether here or elsewhere, is both desirable and inevitable. Right now this is true of high-tech items but soon enough, it will be evident enough across the spectrum of durable goods.

This wasn't the case when producing a new widget required a lot of custom tool and die work, specialized worker training, or the development of advanced processes unique to that widget. For a drop-dead awesome example of what I'm talking about, look at the processes Tektronix had to develop in the 1960s in order to build CRTs for their oscilloscopes: http://classictek.org/index.php?option=com_seyret&Itemid... (Flash required)

Grove is basically saying we need to start more companies that "scale up" to require factories where people sit doing stuff like what's seen in that video. He's wrong. Today, if I design a better oscilloscope, I'd be out of my mind if I didn't find a way to use the same generic LCD panels that Chinese factories produce by the tens of millions for sale to everyone from Apple to Boeing. And when my hypothetical design is complete, it will use at most one or two custom ASICs (the fewer the better -- I'll use FPGAs if I can), and Foxconn can start building it as soon as they finish their rush order of iPhone 5G Extremes.

I have a lot of respect for Grove, but as a captain of industry, he's fighting the last war. His subtextual premise is dead-on, though: we need to figure out how to put 200,000,000 underemployed US workers to good use, or things are going to suck.

To me, it's obvious what the future of mass production will look like, but it's not at all clear how to stave off a future where 10% of us are shouldering the entire productivity burden for the rest of the country.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#36

I have a question; does a company only exist to make profits?* Whenever, someone starts a debate like this, or whenever I see a human being slaving away for a pennies in despicable conditions. I have to ask this question. If and only if companies are entities that exist to make more and more money (not wealth) then you will inevitably run into such problems. The companies in the USA outsource that labor to China, or…

The answer is yes. Wealth is the unlocking of human potential through productivity and efficient use of finite resources such as labor and goods. What these companies do is shift costs, not unlocking potential. Luckily for humanity, this is mostly a temporary condition. It only takes a few decades for labor markets to modernize and they will eventually run out of new markets to exploit.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#37
post #5

Andy makes an excellent point: when we outsource the manufacturing and scaling processes to another country, what we lose in addition to jobs are the innovations and experience necessary to maintain a strong defensive econosystem with respect to our economy. However, I disagree with Andy's recommendation that we should tax offshore labor - we should focus on making labor in the United States less expensive. Neuter th…

I'm sorry, I don't think this is the place for a thread that will inevitably devolve into tit-for-tat politics, but I really have trouble stomaching the commentary that the EPA should have less regulatory power over industry when proof of the big-picture bankruptcy of environmental deregulation is current gushing into the gulf at a few tens of thousands of barrels a day. Yes, it raises costs to force industries to co…

I'm sorry, I don't think this is the place for a thread that will inevitably devolve into tit-for-tat politics, but I really have trouble stomaching the commentary that the EPA should have less regulatory power over industry when proof of the big-picture bankruptcy of environmental deregulation is current gushing into the gulf at a few tens of thousands of barrels a day.

This kind of reasoning is tricky, though. Do we shut down the airline industry when a plane crashes? No, we pick up the pieces, study what happened, and move on. The result, over time, is a safety record that almost no rational person could criticize.

Nothing made by God or Man will ever be perfect, and that includes deep-sea drilling rigs. If you want to regulate the industry with the goal of making accidents impossible, well, good luck with that.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#38

The real elephant in the room, which Grove and practically everybody else knows very well but refuses to talk about, is that nobody starts a company to employ people. People start a company to make stuff . To the extent this can be done with fewer people, this is always a good thing from that company's perspective, with no exceptions I can think of offhand. People suck, and you don't want to deal with them if you can…

Why not focus on how to make stuff more efficiently locally, i.e., robotics? At least that could keep some manufacturing jobs local.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#39
post #38

The real elephant in the room, which Grove and practically everybody else knows very well but refuses to talk about, is that nobody starts a company to employ people. People start a company to make stuff . To the extent this can be done with fewer people, this is always a good thing from that company's perspective, with no exceptions I can think of offhand. People suck, and you don't want to deal with them if you can…

Why not focus on how to make stuff more efficiently locally, i.e., robotics? At least that could keep some manufacturing jobs local.

I think that's a valid point, but it will quickly devolve into an argument as to where the robots should be built. It still won't magically add any objective value to your product just to have the nuts and bolts tightened in your hometown.

Re: Andy Grove: How To Make An American Job Before It's Too Late

#40
post #38

The real elephant in the room, which Grove and practically everybody else knows very well but refuses to talk about, is that nobody starts a company to employ people. People start a company to make stuff . To the extent this can be done with fewer people, this is always a good thing from that company's perspective, with no exceptions I can think of offhand. People suck, and you don't want to deal with them if you can…

Why not focus on how to make stuff more efficiently locally, i.e., robotics? At least that could keep some manufacturing jobs local.

This is exactly the problem. The cost of labor is a cop-out for short-term profit. Industries where the cost of shipping exceeds the savings in off-shore labor almost always find a way to automate labor and eliminate these costs.
Post reply on HN