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Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

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Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#91

Post by foota »

jjeaff wrote: post #66
foota wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If demand substantially increases then more baseload capacity will likely be built. And it looks like New York peaks at around 4-5pm, with a drop off around 8-10pm. EVs will likely charge at night, meaning they won't have as much impact on the peak. Edit: source for load http://mis.nyiso.com/public/htm/isolf/20170705isolf.htm

They will have to setup some kind of timer or incentive to charge off peak, because otherwise, most cars are going to be plugged in around 5 to 6 right when people pull into their garage.

That's true. If they wanted, Tesla could easily add this functionality.

I'm not too familiar with ny in particular, but there are systems that allow for metering based on peak/off peak usage. Looks like coned allows this.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#92

Post by InitialLastName »

aquadrop wrote: post #54
_pmf_ wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tying novel ideas in a mass road vehicle is a very, very bad idea. If these ideas include supply chain and QC shortcuts, it pretty much guarantees failure. I applaud Tesla for "making EV sexy" and pushing existing OEMs, but unless Musk gets his ego in check and starts tackling the boring (no pun intended) problems instead of trying to promote himself as autonomous driving messiah, I don't see the first batch of mass…

Why do you think they don't know about "boring" problems? They've been producing cars for years, it's their third model... Also, Musk isn't promoting himself as autonomous driving messiah, but as Mars colonization messiah :)

And soon he'll be a boring messiah!

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#93

Post by dwighttk »

izacus wrote: post #68
stupidcar wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

I'm not sure how realities of production get beaten by "ideas". Yes, Tesla has excellent design and approach. That won't help them magically build in volume. Or quality - even very expensive Model S cars aren't really a paragon of build quality in their class. Steve Jobs didn't promise production of 300mil iPhones in a year when they announced it.

I don't know if you've heard of this little thing called The Law of Accelerating Returns.

It's the law.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#94

Post by brianwawok »

Munkum wrote: post #87
taneq wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. There a story a couple of months ago about the fact that they've saved a lot of time by going straight to the main production lines rather than building a testing line first? Is this a good plan? Time will tell but I'm sure glad I'm not involved. :S Sources: http://www.newsweek.com/tesla-skips-traditional-manufactu…

No, this is not a good plan at all, it's incredibly risky. To get the car all road legal it needs to be crash tested - that is usually what the pre-volume builds are used for. If they fail (and they sometimes do, because you can't do a finite element analysis on an assembly as complex as a car in the variety of scenarios that you would crash test it) then you need to reengineer the car. This usually means panel gauge…

So these all sound like very true and good things. No reason to doubt there is a reason current big auto does it the way they do.

On the other hand, Musk hasn't been one to just say stuff and totally fail. By and large he is getting what he says he is getting, and on a close to reasonable time frame. If we stuck to what big auto said, there would be no autopilot, and EVs would still be a toy with a tiny range.

I have at this point little reason to doubt that they will pull this off.

Clearly making cars is a solved problem, millions are made every year. It SEEMS like Musk hires people that know their stuff.

So I am going long on Tesla, and short on existing big auto. Time will tell what happens ;)

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#95

Post by gambiting »

philbarr wrote: post #89
gambiting wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in UK and I see loads of Teslas as taxis, which is almost unthinkable considering the cost of the car - and I don't mean luxury taxis, I mean it's common to see a normal curb-side taxi as a tesla. I suspect the fact that it's extremely cheap to run and tax balances off very high leasing cost and makes it worth it. I imagine nearly 100% of those sales will turn into Model 3s as soon as it's available.

Where do you live in the UK?! I'm in the north and have never seen a Tesla once (taxi or otherwise)!

I'm in the North(Newcastle) - there's plenty of Teslas as taxis around here, I see at least one on my way to work every day.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#96

Post by kbob »

aquadrop wrote: post #54
_pmf_ wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tying novel ideas in a mass road vehicle is a very, very bad idea. If these ideas include supply chain and QC shortcuts, it pretty much guarantees failure. I applaud Tesla for "making EV sexy" and pushing existing OEMs, but unless Musk gets his ego in check and starts tackling the boring (no pun intended) problems instead of trying to promote himself as autonomous driving messiah, I don't see the first batch of mass…

Why do you think they don't know about "boring" problems? They've been producing cars for years, it's their third model... Also, Musk isn't promoting himself as autonomous driving messiah, but as Mars colonization messiah :)

Model 3 is the fourth model. Roadster, S, X, 3. Unless you're counting S and X as one, since they share the same platform.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#98

Post by maxsilver »

nradov wrote: post #72
stupidcar wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

If electric cars are so simple, why is the Tesla Model S so unreliable? https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095 Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are bigger factors than the drive train.

Because (personal opinion) the Tesla Model S isn't a particularly great car. Their success is largely in marketing, network, and visual appeal, not in the product itself.

If you pick a better (albeit less appealing) electric car, the reliability rate skyrockets. For instance, using your own source -- https://www.truedelta.com/Nissan-LEAF-vs-Tesla-Model-S-relia...

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#99

Post by csdreamer7 »

Broken_Hippo wrote: post #88
jondubois wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe a lot of people wanted to own a Tesla so badly that they were willing to stretch their finances to get it. Tesla has had a lot of hype, it can have that effect on people. In some European countries, there are Taxi drivers who drive Teslas (often for economical reasons). Now these people can own a Tesla without hurting their bank account. I think that there is a reason why car brands are either luxury or mass ma…

I'm in Norway. I've ridden in a Tesla taxi. Yes, the upfront cost of the car is high. But on the other hand, the gas and maintenance costs make up for it. I completely understand the switch. Plus, the ride is nice, comfortable, and quiet for the passenger.

Do you have numbers for the maintenance? Consumer Reports and insurance companies claim that maintenance is expensive for Teslas, even among luxury cars.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#100

Post by baq »

brianwawok wrote: post #94
Munkum wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, this is not a good plan at all, it's incredibly risky. To get the car all road legal it needs to be crash tested - that is usually what the pre-volume builds are used for. If they fail (and they sometimes do, because you can't do a finite element analysis on an assembly as complex as a car in the variety of scenarios that you would crash test it) then you need to reengineer the car. This usually means panel gauge…

So these all sound like very true and good things. No reason to doubt there is a reason current big auto does it the way they do. On the other hand, Musk hasn't been one to just say stuff and totally fail. By and large he is getting what he says he is getting, and on a close to reasonable time frame. If we stuck to what big auto said, there would be no autopilot, and EVs would still be a toy with a tiny range. I have…

> and on a close to reasonable time frame

woah, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. when elon says years, it's martian years as the meme goes, and not without reason. he's getting a better at estimation but is still an extreme optimist.

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