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A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

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Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#111
post #5

>> to avoid confusing establishments that were subject to the minimum with those that were not, the authors did not include large employers with locations both inside and outside of Seattle in their calculations. I read this to mean that the study therefore would exclude employers such as Seattle-based Starbucks, Seattle-based Amazon, Seattle-based Costco, Seattle-based Nordstrom, McDonald's, etc. Based on that readi…

I'm not intelligent enough to say either way. I do think that excluding them was a good idea. If the only businesses that can survive a law are massive multi-national corporations, we've got a problem...

I think that's a good point that we definitely need to consider.

It seems to me that an alternate interpretation could be that:

I would have guessed that low paid jobs were already dominated by large corporations (however I do not have data to back this up one way or the other), it seems that small businesses are at least surviving (even if they were hurt somewhat), and small businesses can't compete on economy of scale so it would make sense for them to hire more skilled employees to compete on quality. In this case maybe higher minimum wages would still be a net good?

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#112
post #95

> raised the minimum wage from $9.47 to $11 per hour in 2015 and to $13 per hour in 2016. > we conclude that the second wage increase to $13 reduced hours worked in low-wage jobs [...] while hourly wages in such jobs increased by around 3 percent. Sounds like some pretty intense statistical manipulation. The second wage increase was ~18% ($2/$11) not 3%. So they've fished for a larger pool that only had a 3% increase…

[deleted]

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#113
post #63

There is an excellent free (and very short) book, "Economics in one lesson" by Henry Hazlitt, which explains very logically why minimum wage, rent controls and other "band-aid" economical measures always end badly: https://mises.org/system/tdf/Henry%20Hazlitt%20Economics%20i... It is like 2-hour reading, but very enlightening.

Let's be clear here that Hazlitt is not himself an economist.

To address this point I will quote from Walter Block[1]:

>Just because Hazlitt has no formal credentials in economics does not render his views fallacious or superficial. There are other highly respected economists, in the modern era, who do not have a PhD in economics: David Friedman (physics PhD), Henry Manne (law degree), Gordon Tullock (law degree). Gary Becker wrote a lot about sociology, but his PhD was in economics. Several non economists actually won Nobel Prizes in economics, several with degrees in psychology. Nobel Prize Winner Elinor Ostrom’s PhD degree was in political science, not economics. Many economists in history had no formal training in this subject. This disproves their views?

[1] http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2017/05/a-response-to-i...

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#114

Its interesting that none of the "welfare state" economies of Scandinavia have minimum wage laws. Instead they allow collective bargaining by unions.

How is it that collective bargaining by unions relevant?

I mean, we have collective bargaining in the US, so I'm trying to understand how exactly that is different from Scandinavia.

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#115
post #99
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the other hand, the minimum wage definitely benefits middle class teenagers on their first jobs (if they can get a job), and has questionable benefit for millennial humanities college grads who have yet to start a career. This is the problem. Everyone working 40 hours per week deserves a living wage, whether they're fresh out of high school or 8 years into a humanities degree. There's this weird sense out there…

> Otherwise you're just making people depend on our social safety net, and no one wants that. I suppose the homeless and chronically unemployed people you've condemned do not usually use public assistance? I disagree with this, and regardless, it doesn't sound like a good solution for them. There are a lot of cheap places out there (see: Midwest, South), but unfortunately, millennials do not want to live there. I wou…

You moved goalposts from >Every 40 hour job is a "real job" and deserves a living wage.

to >I would rather let economics sort it out instead of creating a vicious local inflation cycle that prices out local minorities and increases the homeless population via minimum wage.

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#116
post #95

> raised the minimum wage from $9.47 to $11 per hour in 2015 and to $13 per hour in 2016. > we conclude that the second wage increase to $13 reduced hours worked in low-wage jobs [...] while hourly wages in such jobs increased by around 3 percent. Sounds like some pretty intense statistical manipulation. The second wage increase was ~18% ($2/$11) not 3%. So they've fished for a larger pool that only had a 3% increase…

That's the point of the study: the real increase in wages to workers isn't the nominal statutory increase. For example, many people in the low-wage labor market in Seattle were already making more than the minimum wage.

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#117
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Long-term capital gains are taxed lower than normal generic income (at rates lower than the same person would pay in income tax) which in turn taxed lower than labor income (which is, in addition to regular income tax, subject to payroll tax.) Closing the capital gains tax loophole is, presumably, a reference to stopping some or all of this favorable treatment.

Just to make sure I understand you, you are advocating counting long-term capital gains as ordinary income?

I'm explaining what it is likely the upthread poster was referring to when talking about closing the capital gains tax loophole, not advocating anything.

(I have advocated better aligning the treatment of capital, labor, and generic other income, but the details involve more than just counting long-term capital gains as ordinary income.)

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#118
post #35

So low wage workers are getting cut but unemployment is still at 3.2%? Which is ~1.5% lower than the national average? Kind of sounds like this study might be looking at only half the story.

The unemployment rate only counts people looking for work. If they quit the labor force completely, they're no longer counted as unemployed.

Minimum wage workers are usually the lowest skilled workers in the economy. When they're displaced they have the fewest alternative jobs available to them, so they tend to drop out of the labor force. Either temporarily, while they go and learn new skills, or permanently.

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#119
post #42

The problem I have with the minimum wage is that it transfers wealth from the very poorest to the mid-working class/lower middle class. Who am I to tell a homeless person that she is legally forbidden to engage in a voluntary, hourly employment contract for less than $15/hr? I would effectively be guaranteeing that she stays unemployed/homeless. Regardless of practical effects (which are ambiguous at best), it's wron…

This isn't the first such study, in fact there is a long history of them, with results so mixed that nothing can be concluded one way or the other on minimum wage (except perhaps for the conclusion that Economics 101 models don't match the real world). The following book contains a short review in an early chapter https://www.amazon.co.uk/Economics-Anti-Textbook-Critical-Th...

Still to my mind, a high level of Universal Basic Income combined with no minimum wage would be a more logical thing to do, and solves the above problems.

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#120

Its interesting that none of the "welfare state" economies of Scandinavia have minimum wage laws. Instead they allow collective bargaining by unions.

How is it that collective bargaining by unions relevant? I mean, we have collective bargaining in the US, so I'm trying to understand how exactly that is different from Scandinavia.

I think you have more anti-union laws in some US states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
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