The Wheels Come Off Uber • Hacker News Board

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#101

Post by Spearchucker » Fri, Jun 23, 2017, 8:21 AM UTC

majani wrote: post #80

Kurtz79 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same could be said for Google.

The moat for Google is the complexity and expensive nature of doing accurate search at scale

That moat only holds out aspiring competitors who compete using the same game Google plays. The person who can come up with a way to show you a grommet when you're thinking cloth clamp will break Google. How many times have you searched for an algorithm, knowing it exists, but not knowing its name? Search is still very broken, and after 20 years of Google is very ripe for disruption.

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#102

Post by Flenser » Fri, Jun 23, 2017, 10:03 AM UTC

curun1r wrote: post #71

Animats wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that series: Uber’s real problem is that it is a staggeringly unprofitable company with fundamentally uncompetitive economics. It lost $2 billion in 2015, $3 billion in 2016, and another billion in China. It is a higher cost, less efficient producer of taxi service than traditional operators; all of its growth is explained by these multi-billion dollar subsidies as it has flooded markets with additional capacity…

The response to that has always been that if they can stay afloat until autonomous vehicles arrive, they can cut costs to the point where they're profitable. Beyond that, with the driver costs out of the picture, the cost of an autonomous ride would actually be below the per-mile cost of driving your own vehicle to the point where Uber would ride a wave of decreased individual ownership and reliance on car-hailing se…

Even if they could survive until they can switch to autonomous cars, that would remove the barrier to entry for competitors because they wouldn't have to convince drivers to use them. There's more on this comment from last year:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13079767

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#103

Post by lmm » Fri, Jun 23, 2017, 11:06 AM UTC

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #37

Analemma_ wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's a question if uber can race to self driving cars fast enough. I'm not sure that's true though; I don't get the oft-repeated logic that self-driving cars will save Uber. OK, they save on labor costs, but right one now of Uber's (slimy, IMO, but significant nonetheless) major savings is pushing vehicle maintenance and deprecation costs onto their drivers. They won't be able to do that with self-driving cars: the…

> Uber's (slimy, IMO, but significant nonetheless) major savings is pushing vehicle maintenance and deprecation costs onto their drivers. This is fallacious. The end-user pays for vehicle maintenance and depreciation. There cannot be any savings by pushing around which party writes the cheque as the only source of income to pay that cheque can be the end-user.

You're assuming perfect information, rational behaviour, and the same maintenance standards. Uber can save money at the expense of their drivers if drivers underestimate maintenance and depreciation costs. If they manage to shift liability for inadequate maintenance onto drivers they could also save money by under-maintaining and then allowing the resulting fines to bankrupt individuals rather than cost the company profits.

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#104

Post by emodendroket » Fri, Jun 23, 2017, 12:14 PM UTC

vec wrote: post #87

emodendroket wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it were really the only thing giving Uber a monopoly on the market I guarantee somebody else would lose their scruples.

Tipping isn't about scruples. Businesses with scruples would pay their employees a fair wage and price accordingly. And then immediately go out of business as everyone flocks to the competitor that's magically 20% cheaper (before the essentially mandatory 20% tip). Tipping is entirely about being able to advertise a lower price than the actual customer cost. Unfortunately that is extremely effective, so if one compan…

It's not like Uber was paying a generous wage in the first place.

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#105

Post by emodendroket » Fri, Jun 23, 2017, 12:15 PM UTC

Spearchucker wrote: post #101

majani wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The moat for Google is the complexity and expensive nature of doing accurate search at scale

That moat only holds out aspiring competitors who compete using the same game Google plays. The person who can come up with a way to show you a grommet when you're thinking cloth clamp will break Google. How many times have you searched for an algorithm, knowing it exists, but not knowing its name? Search is still very broken, and after 20 years of Google is very ripe for disruption.

On the other hand, you can compete with Uber by having a guy in a yellow cab hanging around at the airport.