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The Wheels Come Off Uber

nakedcapitalism.com

61–70 of 105 posts

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#61
post #7

The most worrisome aspect of this essay is that it questions whether Uber has a viable business model. The OP argues that Uber will never be able to charge prices in excess of the level required by a traditional taxi/limo operator to be profitable for long enough to recoup the billions of dollars the company has burned by subsidizing the price of rides. Put another way, even if Uber drives every competing taxi/limo o…

Well, yeah, exactly, that's what the guys on Naked Capitalism have been saying for a while. Even if they establish their monopoly there is no barrier to entry for new competitors.

The same could be said for Google.

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#62
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Put another way, even if Uber drives every competing taxi/limo operator out of business, as soon as the company raises prices to cover costs -- vehicle, insurance, maintenance, fuel, credit card processing, license fees, and (at least for now) labor -- new entrants (and revived old entrants) would quickly come into the market, preventing Uber from keeping prices up. Not true -- Uber has a permanent moat, which is t…

Even if they didn't do that, there's nothing stopping a competitor from having the same policy.

Nothing except the fact that there seems to be an extreme taboo that makes everyone steadfastly refuse to do it with the same fervor.

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#63
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, yeah, exactly, that's what the guys on Naked Capitalism have been saying for a while. Even if they establish their monopoly there is no barrier to entry for new competitors.

The same could be said for Google.

How do you figure? How can somebody replicate Google's services without a tremendous investment in both hardware and software?

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#64
post #16

It's a question if uber can race to self driving cars fast enough. That's really the only way their financial model can make sense. They should really be seeing this as essential to their survival, like nuclear bombs in WWII. Nazi Germany had maybe 1000 people working on their version. USA had 180,000(!). I suspect in this analogy, uber is not USA. Someone else will get this rolled out first. But I'm not 100% sure.

> That's really the only way their financial model can make sense.

Theirs and Tesla's, Faraday Future's, Ford's, Waymo's, Nutonomy's, Apple's (?), Yandex's, Audi's, GM's, Land Rover's, Hyundai's, BMW' and a few others I missed but that can be found by Googling "* investing self driving".

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#65
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they didn't do that, there's nothing stopping a competitor from having the same policy.

Nothing except the fact that there seems to be an extreme taboo that makes everyone steadfastly refuse to do it with the same fervor.

If it were really the only thing giving Uber a monopoly on the market I guarantee somebody else would lose their scruples.

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#66
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Put another way, even if Uber drives every competing taxi/limo operator out of business, as soon as the company raises prices to cover costs -- vehicle, insurance, maintenance, fuel, credit card processing, license fees, and (at least for now) labor -- new entrants (and revived old entrants) would quickly come into the market, preventing Uber from keeping prices up. Not true -- Uber has a permanent moat, which is t…

Just don't tip. It's a bug if they can rate your tip. Meanwhile I like not being a dick to drivers. What's the big deal?

You just explained one of the big deals.

More generally, the way tipping works, there is no clear, consistent, compatible expectation, so I'm forced into a position of either a) overpaying, b) committing a silent faux pas, or c) having negative feedback misinterpreted as stinginess or ignorance.

Would you not consider that a big deal? Are you really surprised about the existence of people who don't like the tipping system, or who don't consider "just stiff them" a valid workaround?

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#67
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same could be said for Google.

How do you figure? How can somebody replicate Google's services without a tremendous investment in both hardware and software?

I think that's the point, though. To compete (as a new entrant) with Uber+Lyft, wouldn't you need to build infrastructure, win mindshare with drivers + passengers, and all the other things that Lyft and Uber have been spending years doing?

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#68
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just don't tip. It's a bug if they can rate your tip. Meanwhile I like not being a dick to drivers. What's the big deal?

You just explained one of the big deals. More generally, the way tipping works, there is no clear, consistent, compatible expectation, so I'm forced into a position of either a) overpaying, b) committing a silent faux pas, or c) having negative feedback misinterpreted as stinginess or ignorance. Would you not consider that a big deal? Are you really surprised about the existence of people who don't like the tipping s…

The alternative is not supporting a company who doesn't provide a living wage for their workers after they go into debt. They talk about making drivers entrepreneurs? That's just code for "we convinced some suckers to invest in a falling wage". Who do you know who invested in a black car and paid it off driving uber? There are similar stories with medallions, but that's a separate issue with separate solutions.

Lyft may have similar issues, but in cities without real taxi companies (e.g. Sf) there's no real alternative to being a part of this terrible "entrepeneurship". Tipping will put uber back on my phone.

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#69

People misunderstand Uber's motives. They are not slimy. Quite the opposite: they are a public good. The company is the front end for a giant charitable effort by venture capitalists. They are pouring money into uber, to help it drive down the costs of urban transportation, enabling people in cities to have more money available for necessities like rent, diapers, and food.

Is this a joke? They are pouring money into building a monopoly, so they can raise prices when they eventually control urban and suburban transportation.

Re: The Wheels Come Off Uber

#70
post #7

The most worrisome aspect of this essay is that it questions whether Uber has a viable business model. The OP argues that Uber will never be able to charge prices in excess of the level required by a traditional taxi/limo operator to be profitable for long enough to recoup the billions of dollars the company has burned by subsidizing the price of rides. Put another way, even if Uber drives every competing taxi/limo o…

the article is frustratingly light on actual reasoning about why uber can't become profitable. the tl;dr is basically "it looks bad so they're going to fail". it does look very bad but that in itself (even with the various details mentioned) doesn't shine a light on the path that uber will take to failure. it only shows that any path they could take is treacherous. it's an opinion piece with a bunch of facts thrown a…

The reasoning in the article seemed strong to me: Street level transport is a commodity and the market is mature. There is a maximum amount of value to extract from this business and the current companies almost do that. Uber spent way more money than the industry is likely to generate to try and steal their business.

Combine that seemingly solid market reasoning with them being opposed often and them fucking up almost as often and it seems surprising they are still functioning now. Their are missing leadership, their investors are unlikely to assemble a stellar team, there are existing internal and external problems. This seems overwhelming for all but the most profitable companies, and that is just what was in this short article. Even if it is wrong the reasoning seems solid. News facts or or astounding leadership at Uber are required to pull out of such a deep hole.

Their master stroke was supposed to be a self driving taxi, but they are no closer than anyone else and their bill is due. They appear to have an existential need to have that desperation move work for them for at least a few years before anyone else gets in on it. If they succeed then likely Google and Telsa will succeed within a few months of them. There appears to be no situations where they can recoup losses at a reasonable rate.

I could be totally wrong, but it looks suspicious as hell. If I had money to invest at a scale that mattered to Uber, I sure wouldn't go with them.

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