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Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]

drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu

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Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]

#11

Post by pillowkusis »

justicezyx wrote: post #7
pillowkusis wrote: post #2

I don't like the use of the word "predictable". I would qualify this populist uprising as a Black Swan[0], and as Taleb describes in his book, one of the common reactions to a black swan is to rationalize it's obvious predictability after the fact. Were there logical reasons to believe this populist uprising would occur? Of course (and this paper does a good job exploring them). Was it predictable? I don't know. By a…

> Were there logical reasons to believe this populist uprising would occur? Of course (and this paper does a good job exploring them). Was it predictable? Contradicting statements. Believe means somewhat possible. If you assign someone possibility then it's predicted.

To clarify, by "predict" I mean "to be reasonably sure of the outcome before it happens". I can assign logical reasons for Uber to declare bankruptcy tomorrow, but I would definitely not predict it.

Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]

#13

Post by crdoconnor »

notadoc wrote: post #5

You mean exporting the middle class and then undercutting upward mobility was doomed to face a political backlash? What a surprise.

It probably is a surprise if you put a lot of faith in Ricardian equivalence, the theory of comparative advantage and read and nod your head to this sort of thing:

http://www.economist.com/node/605144

Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]

#14

Post by jayess »

sr2 wrote: post #3

For those who don't want to click, here's the abstract: > Populism may seem like it has come out of nowhere, but it has been on the rise for a while. I argue that economic history and economic theory both provide ample grounds for anticipating that advanced stages of economic globalization would produce a political backlash. While the backlash may have been predictable, the specific form it took was less so. I distin…

> Populism may seem like it has come out of nowhere...

Only if you haven't been paying attention or are living in a bubble...

Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]

#15

Post by rayiner »

The discussion on 4-9 is worth looking at. Among policymakers on both sides of the aisle, there is this reflexive recitation that trade increases economic efficiency. While that's true, that assumes the purpose of national policy is to increase economic efficiency. To the contrary, the mandate of politicians in a Democracy is to improve the welfare of the majority of voters.

Likewise, the discussion on 13-15 is important. People don't like the idea of valued social progress being undermined by unfair competition. There is an intuitive appeal to the idea that workers in America or Germany shouldn't have to compete with workers in countries where child labor is accepted and environmental standards are non-existent.

People wonder why boring trade policy becomes such an emotional thing, and the article does a great job of explaining why. The reason is not just scapegoating, as apologists of globalism assume. Rather, there is a deep-seated belief that citizens of the world types simply don't share our most basic values: that the government exists not to advance ideals, but the welfare of the polity; that social advances that are widely celebrated in the western world are worth more than economic efficiency, etc.[1]

[1] There is a reason even Trump campaigned on cleaning up the air and water. Even Americans who think the EPA or OSHA or DOL are out of control wouldn't tolerate the labor and environmental standards that exist in Bangladesh or China.

Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]

#16

Post by the_cat_kittles »

just a minor gripe: was predictable is lame. you either predict the future or you dont. you dont say that you could have predicted it. i get the point of the article, but its lame when people try to act like the "could have predicted" something, because they are using the fact that it happened.

Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]

#17

Post by muninn_ »

perfmode wrote: post #10
candiodari wrote: post #6

It is too easy to forget that when a person is employed at $100k-$200k per year in the Bay Area, you want things like stopping climate change, more parks, more air, fair treatment, and above all, peace and prosperity. When making $30k with absolutely zero hope of real increases in Atlanta being a warehouse worker for an industry that's disappearing, the same person would burn all those things down, I would have said…

Racism and poverty are related.

Sure, care to elaborate or were you just doing a drive-by?

Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]

#18

Post by ferentchak »

perfmode wrote: post #10
candiodari wrote: post #6

It is too easy to forget that when a person is employed at $100k-$200k per year in the Bay Area, you want things like stopping climate change, more parks, more air, fair treatment, and above all, peace and prosperity. When making $30k with absolutely zero hope of real increases in Atlanta being a warehouse worker for an industry that's disappearing, the same person would burn all those things down, I would have said…

Racism and poverty are related.

Agreed. If we address poverty it will remove most racism. Most racism is classism in disguise. Heck, most people confuse the two when they are being discussed.

//edited to remove an extra 'in'.

Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]

#19

Post by Mikeb85 »

pillowkusis wrote: post #2

I don't like the use of the word "predictable". I would qualify this populist uprising as a Black Swan[0], and as Taleb describes in his book, one of the common reactions to a black swan is to rationalize it's obvious predictability after the fact. Were there logical reasons to believe this populist uprising would occur? Of course (and this paper does a good job exploring them). Was it predictable? I don't know. By a…

> By and large most of us did not predict it, so I'm not so sure.

Please, economists have been predicting this for awhile. Read someone like Piketty, he presents a plethora of evidence that inequality is reaching the levels of the gilded age, and that era wasn't exactly devoid of strife, political change, wars, etc...

The only people who are surprised are those who are too distracted by their own insular worlds to see what's happening around them.

Re: Populism and the Economics of Globalization [pdf]

#20

Post by [deleted] »

pillowkusis wrote: post #2

I don't like the use of the word "predictable". I would qualify this populist uprising as a Black Swan[0], and as Taleb describes in his book, one of the common reactions to a black swan is to rationalize it's obvious predictability after the fact. Were there logical reasons to believe this populist uprising would occur? Of course (and this paper does a good job exploring them). Was it predictable? I don't know. By a…

[deleted]
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